TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ TOR

Neutral air · 0.99×

TB @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 30 · vs Martinez ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 32 · vs Cease → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 66

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +1000 C ●●●●●

2 George Springer — D ●●●●○

3 Nathan Lukes — D ●●○○○

FADE Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 5

0.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +850 C ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins — D ●●○○○

3 Jonathan Aranda — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Cease +850 0.268 · 93.2 · 8.2% 36.4% 28.3% F B O C 59

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Martinez +1000 0.221 · 91.3 · 10.3% 33.3% 27.0% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TOR George Springer HOT vs Martinez — 0.171 · 88.5 · 7.6% 33.3% 19.4% F B O D 48

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.134 · 88.2 · 4.5% 12.5% 10.0% F B O D 35

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Cease Edge — 0.175 · 91.1 · 7.2% 10.0% 11.4% F B O D 42

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.111 · 86.6 · 2.9% 12.5% 7.8% F B O D 33

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.101 · 85.8 · 4.3% 12.5% 7.6% F B O D 30

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Martinez — 0.132 · 85.1 · 4.2% 11.1% 7.1% F B O D 36

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Cease — 0.159 · 91.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 34

· TOR Alejandro Kirk vs Martinez +1000 0.142 · 86.2 · 4.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· TOR Daulton Varsho vs Martinez Edge +750 0.143 · 86.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 39

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.131 · 86.1 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· TOR Myles Straw vs Martinez — 0.097 · 86.4 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

· TB Chandler Simpson vs Cease Edge — 0.069 · 84.0 · — 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 17

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Cease — 0.077 · 85.8 · 2.9% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 25

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.070 · 85.1 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.4% ← leak BRK 43.1% OFF 11.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.6% 12.7% 7.0% 13.9% C 59 +850

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

138

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

11.0% 12.3% 6.0% 10.3% D 42 —

194

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.5% 2.1% 9.4% 4.0% D 35 —

199

Yandy Diaz R

5.2% 11.5% 5.0% 7.3% D 34 —

221

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.2% 2.3% 4.0% 4.2% D 30 —

224

Nick Fortes R

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 25 —

225

Taylor Walls S Edge

4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% D 24 —

228

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 17 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.4% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.3% ← leak OFF 27.8% BRK 9.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

15.8% 16.7% 9.5% 14.2% C 59 +1000

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

George Springer R

9.2% 8.7% 5.8% 8.0% D 48 —

165

Daulton Varsho L Edge

8.4% 6.7% 3.1% 6.7% D 39 +750

179

Alejandro Kirk R

0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 2.4% D 37 +1000

191

Ernie Clement R

2.1% 2.5% 2.9% 2.4% D 36 —

201

Myles Straw R

5.2% 10.0% 0.0% 4.3% D 34 —

206

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.0% 6.1% 2.7% 3.3% D 33 —

208

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.9% 2.3% 1.1% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.3% usage) carries Martinez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Okamoto Springer

Legend

attack side — vs Martinez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Junior Caminero +850 · 59

Kazuma Okamoto +1000 · 59

George Springer — · 48

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof unknown

Park 0.99× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 0.99× Dome — weather irrelevant — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 59 C +850 · 23 0.268 93.2 8.2% 41.5%vs RHP 408 28.4% 36.4% 28.3% 30

2 Jonathan Aranda 42 D — WARM 138 0.175 91.1 7.2% 19.7%vs RHP 387 13.0% 10.0% 11.4% 29

3 Cedric Mullins 35 D — COOL 194 0.134 88.2 4.5% 21.1%vs RHP 391 13.2% 12.5% 10.0% 18

4 Yandy Diaz 34 D — · 199 0.159 91.1 5.9% 23.1%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 40

5 Richie Palacios 30 D — COOL 221 0.101 85.8 4.3% 10.0%vs RHP 396 4.1% 12.5% 7.6% 20

6 Nick Fortes 25 D — COOL 224 0.077 85.8 2.9% 10.5%vs RHP 400 1.9% 0.0% 6.4% 15

7 Taylor Walls 24 D — COOL 225 0.070 85.1 3.8% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 20

8 Chandler Simpson 17 D — · 228 0.069 84.0 — 3.9%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 37

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 59 C +1000 · 24 0.221 91.3 10.3% 30.9%vs RHP 396 20.3% 33.3% 27.0% 26

2 George Springer 48 D — HOT 84 0.171 88.5 7.6% 23.7%vs RHP 391 11.1% 33.3% 19.4% 17

3 Daulton Varsho 39 D +750 WARM 165 0.143 86.3 7.2% 11.5%vs RHP 386 7.2% 0.0% 8.1% 28

4 Alejandro Kirk 37 D +1000 WARM 179 0.142 86.2 4.3% 18.8%vs RHP 402 7.1% 0.0% 9.0% 18

5 Ernie Clement 36 D — COOL 191 0.132 85.1 4.2% 7.7%vs RHP 375 8.7% 11.1% 7.1% 36

6 Myles Straw 34 D — WARM 201 0.097 86.4 5.8% 7.7%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 16

7 Andres Gimenez 33 D — COOL 206 0.131 86.1 4.9% 11.9%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 21

8 Nathan Lukes 33 D — COOL 208 0.111 86.6 2.9% 15.2%vs RHP 378 6.5% 12.5% 7.8% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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