TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ MIL

American Family Field is live · 1.15×

NYM @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph in 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-14 ↑

6:40p

-14 ↑

7:40p

-14 ↑

8:40p

-14 ↑

9:40p

-12 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -12

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 31 · vs Peralta ⟷ Juan Soto conv 29 · vs Misiorowski → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 91

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +750 C+ ●●●●●

2 Brice Turang +750 C ●●●○○

3 Joey Ortiz — D ●●●○○

FADE Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 9

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Juan Soto +425 C ●●●●○

2 Francisco Alvarez +850 D ●●●○○

3 Francisco Lindor +625 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 14.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Peralta Edge +750 0.262 · 92.5 · 8.9% 25.0% 36.4% F B O C+ 64

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +425 0.261 · 92.5 · 7.6% 30.0% 28.4% F B O C 58

· MIL Brice Turang vs Peralta Edge +750 0.198 · 90.9 · 6.9% 20.0% 23.1% F B O C 52

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Peralta Edge +1000 0.213 · 92.3 · 8.7% 0.0% 15.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Misiorowski +850 0.183 · 90.2 · 8.1% 14.3% 26.0% F B O D 47

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Peralta — 0.089 · 87.8 · 4.7% 25.0% 9.5% F B O D 37

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Misiorowski Edge +625 0.142 · 92.1 · 6.3% 22.2% 11.0% F B O D 41

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Misiorowski Edge +800 0.100 · 89.4 · 5.8% 22.2% 9.4% F B O D 35

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Peralta Edge +850 0.180 · 92.7 · 9.0% 0.0% 15.0% F B O D 49

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +750 0.165 · 90.0 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 40

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.135 · 89.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Misiorowski +950 0.119 · 90.0 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

· MIL Andrew Vaughn vs Peralta +600 0.170 · 89.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 41

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Peralta +750 0.137 · 90.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 42

· NYM Jorge Polanco COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +700 0.084 · 85.0 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

· MIL Cooper Pratt vs Peralta — 0.060 · 88.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 76.1% ← leak BRK 21.8% OFF 2.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L Edge

18.5% 11.9% 5.0% 14.5% C 58 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

16.0% 15.3% 17.6% 15.9% D 47 +850

147

Francisco Lindor S Edge

8.2% 5.0% 9.1% 8.0% D 41 +625

155

Jared Young L Edge

11.1% 9.1% 21.1% 12.2% D 40 +750

195

Brett Baty L Edge

8.5% 14.0% 2.6% 8.5% D 35 +800

197

Bo Bichette R

4.8% 12.2% 0.0% 6.7% D 35 +950

214

Jorge Polanco S Edge

5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% D 32 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (76.1% usage) carries Misiorowski's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.1% ← leak BRK 24.1% OFF 21.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.4% 14.0% 16.7% 14.6% C+ 64 +750

Jackson Chourio S Edge

13.5% 14.9% 3.8% 12.7% C 53 +1000

Brice Turang L Edge

9.8% 10.1% 2.2% 8.6% C 52 +750

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.5% 12.3% 5.0% 13.9% D 49 +850

144

William Contreras R

9.6% 7.8% 0.0% 8.3% D 42 +750

149

Andrew Vaughn R

6.1% 5.3% 0.0% 5.1% D 41 +600

156

Christian Yelich L Edge

4.4% 10.4% 12.5% 6.8% D 40 —

177

Joey Ortiz R

3.5% 5.0% 0.0% 3.7% D 37 —

198

Cooper Pratt R

7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Peralta's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Alvarez Lindor Baty Bauers Turang Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Jake Bauers +750 · 64

Juan Soto +425 · 58

Brice Turang +750 · 52

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph in 78°F retractable

-14

↑

18 mph · in

77°F

6:40p

-14

↑

18 mph · in

77°F

7:40p

-14

↑

18 mph · in

77°F

8:40p

-14

↑

18 mph · in

77°F

9:40p

-12

↑

16 mph · in

77°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 78°F, wind 6 mph W (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 58 C +425 COOL 25 0.261 92.5 7.6% 32.7%vs RHP 401 20.2% 30.0% 28.4% 26

2 Francisco Alvarez 47 D +850 COOL 87 0.183 90.2 8.1% 27.3%vs RHP 404 9.3% 14.3% 26.0% 18

3 Francisco Lindor 41 D +625 WARM 147 0.142 92.1 6.3% 13.8%vs RHP 399 10.5% 22.2% 11.0% 29

4 Jared Young 40 D +750 COOL 155 0.165 90.0 6.6% 21.4%vs RHP 399 9.4% 0.0% 10.1% 19

5 Brett Baty 35 D +800 HOT 195 0.100 89.4 5.8% 10.6%vs RHP 401 5.4% 22.2% 9.4% 30

6 Bo Bichette 35 D +950 COOL 197 0.119 90.0 5.2% 10.0%vs RHP 385 9.5% 0.0% 8.9% 28

7 Jorge Polanco 32 D +700 COOL 214 0.084 85.0 3.6% 9.1%vs RHP 346 3.3% 0.0% 6.8% 17

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 64 C+ +750 · 12 0.262 92.5 8.9% 35.3%vs RHP 401 21.1% 25.0% 36.4% 19

2 Jackson Chourio 53 C +1000 COOL 52 0.213 92.3 8.7% 18.9%vs RHP 402 16.9% 0.0% 15.8% 30

3 Brice Turang 52 C +750 WARM 57 0.198 90.9 6.9% 26.4%vs RHP 406 11.6% 20.0% 23.1% 28

4 Garrett Mitchell 49 D +850 COOL 78 0.180 92.7 9.0% 29.6%vs RHP 415 9.0% 0.0% 15.0% 27

5 William Contreras 42 D +750 COOL 144 0.137 90.2 6.6% 17.5%vs RHP 419 10.1% 0.0% 8.2% 27

6 Andrew Vaughn 41 D +600 WARM 149 0.170 89.8 4.7% 5.6%vs RHP 412 4.3% 0.0% 8.5% 16

7 Christian Yelich 40 D — COOL 156 0.135 89.0 6.3% 14.3%vs RHP 402 6.3% 0.0% 9.4% 25

8 Joey Ortiz 37 D — WARM 177 0.089 87.8 4.7% 10.0%vs RHP 400 4.8% 25.0% 9.5% 30

9 Cooper Pratt 35 D — · 198 0.060 88.1 5.1% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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