TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ LAA

Playable air · 1.09×

STL @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 10:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 1 mph in 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

7:10p

-6 ↑

8:10p

-5 ↑

9:10p

-4 ↑

10:10p

-4 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks -4

Best of game Mike Trout conv 14 · vs Leahy ⟷ Jj Wetherholt conv 30 · vs Soriano → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 16

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout +290 C ●●○○○

2 Josh Lowe +500 D ●●○○○

3 Jo Adell +400 D ●●○○○

FADE José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 11

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Wetherholt +625 D ●●●●●

2 Jordan Walker +370 C+ ●●●●○

3 Alec Burleson +390 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: 14.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ vs Soriano +370 0.236 · 93.8 · 10.5% 27.3% 19.2% F B O C+ 62

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Leahy +290 0.228 · 90.7 · 14.3% 12.5% 16.3% F B O C 59

· STL Alec Burleson vs Soriano Edge +390 0.190 · 91.7 · 9.3% 10.0% 14.5% F B O C 50

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Leahy +330 0.211 · 89.3 · 11.7% 0.0% 12.6% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Soriano Edge +625 0.142 · 90.0 · 7.5% 50.0% 10.4% F B O D 43

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Leahy Edge +500 0.149 · 88.9 · 9.9% 12.5% 11.2% F B O D 45

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Leahy +400 0.144 · 89.5 · 9.3% 11.1% 12.0% F B O D 44

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Leahy +700 0.136 · 89.3 · 8.2% 14.3% 7.7% F B O D 41

· LAA Jorge Soler vs Leahy +400 0.190 · 88.1 · 11.0% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 49

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Soriano Edge +850 0.143 · 85.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 40

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Soriano +750 0.144 · 89.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 36

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Leahy Edge +850 0.118 · 87.2 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 34

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe HOT vs Leahy +500 0.095 · 87.2 · 10.5% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 38

· STL Masyn Winn vs Soriano +850 0.086 · 88.1 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.0% ← leak BRK 30.4% OFF 19.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R

14.6% 12.9% 16.1% 14.2% C+ 62 +370

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.6% 11.7% 10.4% 11.4% C 50 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

131

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

11.5% 3.9% 2.4% 8.3% D 43 +625

153

Nathan Church L Edge

9.3% 6.1% 6.7% 7.6% D 40 +850

182

Ivan Herrera R

5.7% 6.2% 8.6% 6.2% D 36 +750

216

Masyn Winn R

3.5% 2.3% 3.3% 3.1% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.0% usage) carries Soriano's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 45.0% FB 41.6% OFF 13.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout R

29.4% 18.4% 10.0% 19.4% C 59 +290

Zach Neto R

9.2% 16.3% 3.4% 12.6% C 54 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jorge Soler R

10.9% 15.2% 0.0% 12.4% D 49 +400

109

Josh Lowe L Edge

2.6% 12.9% 8.0% 9.0% D 45 +500

117

Jo Adell R

7.0% 8.7% 5.9% 7.8% D 44 +400

150

Vaughn Grissom R

6.7% 8.8% 0.0% 6.6% D 41 +700

171

Logan O'Hoppe R

8.9% 10.6% 14.3% 10.4% D 38 +500

200

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

1.7% 2.8% 0.0% 2.0% D 34 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Leahy's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Wetherholt Trout

Legend

attack side — vs Leahy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jordan Walker +370 · 62

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 1 mph in 79°F open

-6

↑

7 mph · in

79°F

7:10p

-6

↑

7 mph · in

79°F

8:10p

-5

↑

6 mph · in

79°F

9:10p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

78°F

10:10p · peak

-4

↑

5 mph · in

78°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 79°F, wind 1 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 62 C+ +370 · 19 0.236 93.8 10.5% 33.3%vs RHP 406 19.8% 27.3% 19.2% 33

2 Alec Burleson 50 C +390 WARM 74 0.190 91.7 9.3% 21.3%vs RHP 407 16.1% 10.0% 14.5% 32

3 Jj Wetherholt 43 D +625 WARM 131 0.142 90.0 7.5% 18.0%vs RHP 388 25.0% 50.0% 10.4% 32

4 Nathan Church 40 D +850 COOL 153 0.143 85.9 7.8% 21.4%vs RHP 388 9.4% 0.0% 10.9% 25

5 Ivan Herrera 36 D +750 COOL 182 0.144 89.1 6.5% 17.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 39

6 Masyn Winn 31 D +850 WARM 216 0.086 88.1 4.9% 12.1%vs RHP 390 4.3% 0.0% 6.8% 27

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 59 C +290 COOL 22 0.228 90.7 14.3% 26.9%vs RHP 409 17.9% 12.5% 16.3% 18

2 Zach Neto 54 C +330 COOL 47 0.211 89.3 11.7% 21.2%vs RHP 402 18.3% 0.0% 12.6% 25

3 Jorge Soler 49 D +400 WARM 81 0.190 88.1 11.0% 32.4%vs RHP 398 13.2% 0.0% 12.7% 16

4 Josh Lowe 45 D +500 COOL 109 0.149 88.9 9.9% 17.0%vs RHP 396 11.7% 12.5% 11.2% 18

5 Jo Adell 44 D +400 COOL 117 0.144 89.5 9.3% 10.0%vs RHP 409 10.8% 11.1% 12.0% 25

6 Vaughn Grissom 41 D +700 · 150 0.136 89.3 8.2% 17.2%vs RHP 390 8.8% 14.3% 7.7% 23

7 Logan O'Hoppe 38 D +500 HOT 171 0.095 87.2 10.5% 12.5%vs RHP 408 3.8% 0.0% 7.0% 17

8 Nolan Schanuel 34 D +850 COOL 200 0.118 87.2 4.6% 10.8%vs RHP 372 7.4% 0.0% 8.0% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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