TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.47×

SD @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 5 mph out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:15p

+9 ↑

8:15p

+9 ↑

9:15p

+9 ↑

10:15p

+9 ↑

11:15p

conditions hold steady across the window · +9 FIT

Best of game Ty France conv 33 · vs Elder ⟷ Eli White conv 35 · vs Sears → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Bryce Elder RHP · ATL

leak 95

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ty France +900 C+ ●●●●●

2 Manny Machado — C ●●○○○

3 Xander Bogaerts — D ●●○○○

FADE JP Sears LHP · SD

leak 84

1.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · stingy — thin edge

1 Eli White — C ●●●●●

2 Matt Olson — B ●●●●●

3 Drake Baldwin — C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 32.1% · 14D pace 30.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Eli White vs Sears Edge — 0.200 · 86.9 · 7.2% 50.0% 19.8% F B O C 56

· SD Ty France vs Elder +900 0.229 · 92.1 · 8.1% 30.0% 36.5% F B O C+ 62

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Sears — 0.278 · 92.8 · 10.7% 30.0% 32.1% F B O B 72

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Sears — 0.188 · 91.6 · 11.3% 20.0% 30.8% F B O C+ 64

· ATL Joey Bart COOL vs Sears Edge — 0.147 · 86.1 · 8.7% 33.3% 15.8% F B O C 50

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Sears Edge — 0.147 · 90.3 · 9.3% 20.0% 17.1% F B O C 53

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Elder — 0.206 · 90.1 · 7.6% 10.0% 18.8% F B O C 57

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Elder Edge +900 0.203 · 88.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 17.1% F B O C 51

· ATL Jim Jarvis COOL vs Sears — 0.158 · 87.1 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Elder — 0.105 · 88.1 · 6.0% 10.0% 10.7% F B O D 42

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Elder Edge — 0.128 · 89.5 · 7.5% 10.0% 10.6% F B O D 47

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Sears Edge — 0.167 · 86.7 · 5.6% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 47

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Elder — 0.117 · 86.4 · 3.9% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Sears Edge +900 0.149 · 86.3 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 43

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Elder Edge — 0.083 · 87.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.0% ← leak BRK 27.3% OFF 8.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Ty France R

11.6% 10.5% 8.0% 10.7% C+ 62 +900

Manny Machado R

12.7% 6.5% 5.6% 10.0% C 57 —

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.0% 4.7% 4.1% 7.7% C 51 +900

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.4% 8.6% 6.6% 9.0% D 47 —

139

Xander Bogaerts R

8.2% 3.0% 4.3% 6.5% D 42 —

154

Freddy Fermin R

2.6% 3.2% 0.0% 2.6% D 40 —

163

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

6.5% 5.3% 4.3% 5.9% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.0% usage) carries Elder's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.8% BRK 26.8% OFF 23.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L

17.3% 9.8% 12.1% 14.6% B 72 —

Neutral · 5

Drake Baldwin L

15.2% 21.8% 3.2% 15.2% C+ 64 —

Eli White R Edge

12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% C 56 —

Austin Riley R Edge

12.5% 12.3% 3.2% 11.3% C 53 —

Jim Jarvis L

15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% C 51 —

Joey Bart R Edge

5.4% 20.0% 10.0% 9.7% C 50 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Ozzie Albies S Edge

5.8% 1.1% 3.2% 3.9% D 47 —

122

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

3.6% 6.9% 3.8% 4.6% D 43 +900

Read the columns: no single family leads Sears's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Machado Olson Baldwin White Riley Bart

Legend

attack side — vs Elder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Eli White — · 56

Ty France +900 · 62

Matt Olson — · 72

Drake Baldwin — · 64

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 5 mph out 92°F open

↑

4 mph · out

82°F

7:15p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

82°F

8:15p

↑

4 mph · out

82°F

9:15p

↑

4 mph · out

82°F

10:15p

↑

4 mph · out

82°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.47× 92°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Elder · RHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 62 C+ +900 WARM 17 0.229 92.1 8.1% 31.0%vs RHP 394 18.6% 30.0% 36.5% 24

2 Manny Machado 57 C — COOL 32 0.206 90.1 7.6% 27.8%vs RHP 395 19.4% 10.0% 18.8% 27

3 Gavin Sheets 51 C +900 COOL 63 0.203 88.1 6.5% 32.6%vs RHP 397 11.8% 0.0% 17.1% 23

4 Jackson Merrill 47 D — COOL 91 0.128 89.5 7.5% 13.8%vs RHP 407 12.0% 10.0% 10.6% 34

5 Xander Bogaerts 42 D — WARM 139 0.105 88.1 6.0% 17.8%vs RHP 396 8.8% 10.0% 10.7% 25

6 Freddy Fermin 40 D — WARM 154 0.117 86.4 3.9% 3.7%vs RHP 382 3.8% 0.0% 10.8% 5

7 Jake Cronenworth 39 D — · 163 0.083 87.3 5.9% 15.8%vs RHP 389 2.0% 0.0% 9.2% 26

vs JP Sears · LHP 1.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 72 B — WARM 4 0.278 92.8 10.7% 20.4%vs LHP 408 21.4% 30.0% 32.1% 24

2 Drake Baldwin 64 C+ — WARM 15 0.188 91.6 11.3% 43.8%vs LHP 405 19.5% 20.0% 30.8% 35

3 Eli White 56 C — WARM 37 0.200 86.9 7.2% 25.0%vs LHP 373 23.5% 50.0% 19.8% 7

4 Austin Riley 53 C — COOL 51 0.147 90.3 9.3% 13.6%vs LHP 405 9.3% 20.0% 17.1% 25

5 Jim Jarvis 51 C — COOL 67 0.158 87.1 8.6% 12.5% 397 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 25

6 Joey Bart 50 C — COOL 72 0.147 86.1 8.7% 8.3%vs LHP 394 4.0% 33.3% 15.8% 9

7 Ozzie Albies 47 D — COOL 90 0.167 86.7 5.6% 13.3%vs LHP 383 12.2% 0.0% 11.5% 30

8 Mauricio Dubon 43 D +900 COOL 122 0.149 86.3 6.1% 13.3%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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