15
HRs allowed
11.1%
HR rate (pool)
10.2%
Overall HR/FB
3.24
FIP
3.74
xFIP
-0.50
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
27
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 27th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
77.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.5 EV · 398 ft
max EV allowed 113.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Bryce Elder.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Slider Breaking
27.3%
84.0
7.6°
6
+0.5
Sinker Hard
26.3%
86.1
10.4°
5
-1.0
Fastball Hard
23.1%
82.8
25.8°
2
+0.3
Cutter Hard
14.6%
85.6
19.1°
2
-2.0
Changeup Offspeed
8.8%
80.5
11.1°
0
+0.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups135
HRs allowed (pool)15
Pool HR rate11.1%
Pool HR/game day0.94
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB10.2% 27
HR/9—
FIP3.24 22
xFIP3.74
FIP − xFIP-0.50 19
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed77.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Slider
Breaking · 27.3% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle7.6°
HRs allowed6
Pitches418
Sinker
Hard · 26.3% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.1 mph
Avg launch angle10.4°
HRs allowed5
Pitches402
Fastball
Hard · 23.1% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle25.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches353
Cutter
Hard · 14.6% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle19.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches223
Changeup
Offspeed · 8.8% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.5 mph
Avg launch angle11.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches135
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Bryce Elder.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
15 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.5 EV · 398 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
8
3
104.6
2026-06-27
7
1
105.2
2026-06-21
8
1
109.5
2026-06-14
8
1
110.0
2026-06-07
8
1
103.1
2026-06-02
9
1
109.0
2026-05-27
9
1
106.6
2026-05-16
9
1
113.0
2026-05-10
9
1
109.6
2026-05-05
9
1
103.8
2026-04-30
9
0
106.9
2026-04-25
9
0
110.4
2026-04-20
9
1
107.1
2026-04-15
7
1
101.7
2026-04-10
8
1
108.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Bryce Elder isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.