25
HRs allowed
12.6%
HR rate (pool)
13.5%
Overall HR/FB
3.7
FIP
3.86
xFIP
-0.16
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
53
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 53th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
18.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed
75.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.6 EV · 398 ft
max EV allowed 113.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Bryce Elder.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
27.9%
85.8
10.4°
6
-1.0
Fastball Hard
22.4%
82.0
24.1°
3
-0.4
Slider Breaking
22.4%
83.9
7.3°
9
+1.4
Cutter Hard
15.0%
85.6
19.0°
5
+0.3
Changeup Offspeed
12.3%
79.8
8.9°
1
-0.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups199
HRs allowed (pool)25
Pool HR rate12.6%
Pool HR/game day1.04
Top-15 matchups10
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB13.5% 53
HR/9—
FIP3.7 33
xFIP3.86
FIP − xFIP-0.16 34
Barrel% allowed18.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed75.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Sinker
Hard · 27.9% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.8 mph
Avg launch angle10.4°
HRs allowed6
Pitches627
Fastball
Hard · 22.4% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle24.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches504
Slider
Breaking · 22.4% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle7.3°
HRs allowed9
Pitches502
Cutter
Hard · 15.0% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle19.0°
HRs allowed5
Pitches336
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.3% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.8 mph
Avg launch angle8.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches276
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Bryce Elder.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
25 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.6 EV · 398 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-31
7
3
110.1
2026-08-25
9
0
107.1
2026-08-16
9
1
108.3
2026-08-10
8
2
111.0
2026-08-05
9
0
104.3
2026-07-31
7
1
104.9
2026-07-25
8
1
109.4
2026-07-20
7
2
103.9
2026-07-09
8
3
104.6
2026-06-27
7
1
105.2
2026-06-21
8
1
109.5
2026-06-14
8
1
110.0
2026-06-07
8
1
103.1
2026-06-02
9
1
109.0
2026-05-27
9
1
106.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Bryce Elder isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Bryce Elder isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
132
15
11%
8
3
38%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 9. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Bryce Elder
How many home runs has Bryce Elder allowed this season?
Bryce Elder has allowed 25 home runs across 24 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Bryce Elder?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Bryce Elder include Francisco Lindor (2), Rafael Devers (2), Brett Baty (1) and 41 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.