TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.29×

SF @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 1 mph cross 96°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:40p

+5 ↑

7:40p

+5 ↑

8:40p

+5 ↑

9:40p

+6 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +6

Best of game Lane Thomas conv 28 · vs McDonald ⟷ Willy Adames conv 27 · vs Wacha → edge: Bryce Eldridge

ATTACK Trevor McDonald RHP · SF

leak 97

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lane Thomas +900 D ●●●●○

2 Jac Caglianone +900 C ●●●○○

3 Salvador Perez +1000 D ●●○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 52

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willy Adames +700 C ●●●●○

2 Bryce Eldridge +800 C ●●●●○

3 Rafael Devers +650 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Eldridge: 12.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Wacha +700 0.204 · 88.2 · 7.8% 30.0% 23.3% F B O C 52

· SF Bryce Eldridge ✶ vs Wacha Edge +800 0.203 · 92.5 · 9.3% 30.0% 22.2% F B O C 55

· SF Rafael Devers COOL vs Wacha Edge +650 0.230 · 92.1 · 8.6% 20.0% 26.3% F B O C 56

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs McDonald Edge +900 0.196 · 93.0 · 8.5% 20.0% 18.8% F B O C 51

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Wacha +800 0.211 · 89.7 · 8.9% 20.0% 17.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs McDonald +900 0.175 · 89.6 · 5.8% 40.0% 15.0% F B O D 47

· KC Salvador Perez vs McDonald +1000 0.157 · 89.0 · 6.7% 20.0% 10.3% F B O D 44

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Wacha +1000 0.186 · 92.4 · 10.0% 10.0% 16.7% F B O D 49

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs McDonald Edge — 0.117 · 88.4 · 5.2% 11.1% 8.5% F B O D 36

· KC Carter Jensen COOL vs McDonald Edge — 0.185 · 90.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 45

· KC Michael Massey vs McDonald Edge +900 0.158 · 90.4 · 5.5% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 39

· KC Josh Rojas COOL vs McDonald Edge — 0.132 · 84.5 · 3.9% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 37

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs McDonald Edge +850 0.116 · 88.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 36

· SF Daniel Susac COOL vs Wacha — 0.063 · 86.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.127 · 85.8 · 3.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.131 · 87.1 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.125 · 87.0 · 1.8% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.0% ← leak OFF 23.0% BRK 18.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.5% 9.8% 8.5% 12.0% C 56 +650

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

12.6% 20.0% 6.7% 12.7% C 55 +800

Willy Adames R

8.1% 13.6% 10.4% 9.2% C 52 +700

Casey Schmitt R

8.8% 17.4% 18.4% 12.3% C 52 +800

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Heliot Ramos R

14.3% 17.4% 15.5% 15.1% D 49 +1000

209

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.3% 0.0% 2.1% 2.6% D 33 —

212

Daniel Susac R

4.3% 0.0% 6.5% 4.7% D 32 —

213

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.0% 0.0% 2.4% 1.8% D 32 —

222

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.0% usage) carries Wacha's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.1% BRK 26.2% OFF 14.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jac Caglianone L Edge

15.2% 16.2% 12.8% 15.0% C 51 +900

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Lane Thomas R

9.2% 2.8% 5.3% 7.6% D 47 +900

107

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.7% 8.2% 8.3% 8.9% D 45 —

120

Salvador Perez R

14.0% 6.1% 10.8% 10.4% D 44 +1000

161

Michael Massey L Edge

8.5% 4.5% 2.7% 6.6% D 39 +900

178

Josh Rojas L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 3.7% D 37 —

189

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

8.5% 3.4% 11.1% 7.5% D 36 +850

190

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.5% 7.4% 0.0% 5.7% D 36 —

Read the columns: no single family leads McDonald's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Adames Schmitt Ramos Caglianone Thomas Perez

Legend

attack side — vs McDonald fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Willy Adames +700 · 52

Bryce Eldridge +800 · 55

Rafael Devers +650 · 56

Jac Caglianone +900 · 51

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 1 mph cross 96°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

87°F

6:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

87°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

87°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

87°F

9:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

87°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.29× 96°F, wind 1 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 56 C +650 COOL 35 0.230 92.1 8.6% 27.0%vs RHP 401 17.6% 20.0% 26.3% 24

2 Bryce Eldridge ✶ 55 C +800 WARM 38 0.203 92.5 9.3% 22.6%vs RHP 399 24.2% 30.0% 22.2% 24

3 Willy Adames 52 C +700 COOL 56 0.204 88.2 7.8% 22.2%vs RHP 388 15.8% 30.0% 23.3% 26

4 Casey Schmitt 52 C +800 · 59 0.211 89.7 8.9% 20.3%vs RHP 396 17.0% 20.0% 17.1% 33

5 Heliot Ramos 49 D +1000 · 77 0.186 92.4 10.0% 18.2%vs RHP 404 11.3% 10.0% 16.7% 29

6 Jung Hoo Lee 33 D — COOL 209 0.131 87.1 3.9% 8.5%vs RHP 378 4.5% 0.0% 7.0% 29

7 Daniel Susac 32 D — COOL 212 0.063 86.4 5.6% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 1

8 Drew Gilbert 32 D — COOL 213 0.127 85.8 3.4% 15.4%vs RHP 398 3.8% 0.0% 7.8% 22

9 Luis Arraez 29 D — COOL 222 0.125 87.0 1.8% 3.5%vs RHP 367 3.1% 0.0% 6.4% 37

vs Trevor McDonald · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 51 C +900 COOL 61 0.196 93.0 8.5% 27.0%vs RHP 416 13.6% 20.0% 18.8% 35

2 Lane Thomas 47 D +900 HOT 89 0.175 89.6 5.8% 23.1%vs RHP 416 16.4% 40.0% 15.0% 29

3 Carter Jensen 45 D — COOL 107 0.185 90.7 6.5% 17.5%vs RHP 393 14.7% 0.0% 13.8% 19

4 Salvador Perez 44 D +1000 WARM 120 0.157 89.0 6.7% 17.0%vs RHP 398 14.1% 20.0% 10.3% 29

5 Michael Massey 39 D +900 · 161 0.158 90.4 5.5% 9.7%vs RHP 398 6.5% 0.0% 10.5% 24

6 Josh Rojas 37 D — COOL 178 0.132 84.5 3.9% 12.5%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 14

7 Vinnie Pasquantino 36 D +850 · 189 0.116 88.5 5.8% 12.2%vs RHP 395 8.7% 0.0% 9.1% 12

8 Isaac Collins 36 D — COOL 190 0.117 88.4 5.2% 7.7%vs RHP 395 6.0% 11.1% 8.5% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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