16
HRs allowed
10.3%
HR rate (pool)
12.0%
Overall HR/FB
3.88
FIP
4.23
xFIP
-0.35
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
44
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 44th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
70.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.4 EV · 402 ft
max EV allowed 115.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Michael Wacha.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
26.8%
83.3
29.6°
3
-0.7
Changeup Offspeed
23.0%
79.8
20.0°
4
-0.8
Cutter Hard
15.9%
83.0
20.4°
4
+0.2
Sinker Hard
15.3%
82.8
19.9°
3
-0.8
Curveball Breaking
10.0%
80.1
4.4°
0
+0.7
Slider Breaking
8.9%
84.6
12.7°
1
+1.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups155
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate10.3%
Pool HR/game day0.89
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB12.0% 44
HR/9—
FIP3.88 43
xFIP4.23
FIP − xFIP-0.35 26
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed70.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 26.8% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle29.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches500
Changeup
Offspeed · 23.0% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.8 mph
Avg launch angle20.0°
HRs allowed4
Pitches429
Cutter
Hard · 15.9% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle20.4°
HRs allowed4
Pitches297
Sinker
Hard · 15.3% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle19.9°
HRs allowed3
Pitches286
Curveball
Breaking · 10.0% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.1 mph
Avg launch angle4.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches187
Slider
Breaking · 8.9% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle12.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches167
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Michael Wacha.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.4 EV · 402 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
8
1
106.9
2026-07-04
7
1
110.5
2026-06-27
8
0
103.8
2026-06-22
9
0
115.8
2026-06-16
8
1
104.6
2026-06-11
8
1
110.2
2026-06-05
8
1
105.5
2026-05-31
9
0
109.6
2026-05-25
9
1
110.9
2026-05-20
9
1
114.1
2026-05-15
9
2
108.9
2026-05-09
9
0
100.2
2026-05-04
9
0
105.5
2026-04-29
9
1
105.6
2026-04-22
9
2
110.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Michael Wacha isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.