TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.34×

MIA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 4 mph in 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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7:10p

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conditions hold steady across the window · -4 FIT

Best of game Jose Altuve conv 32 · vs Junk ⟷ Griffin Conine conv 41 · vs Proxy → edge: Griffin Conine

ATTACK Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 91

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jose Altuve +800 D ●●●●●

2 Yainer Diaz +625 D ●●●●○

3 Yordan Alvarez +330 B ●●●●○

FADE HOU Bullpen Proxy

leak 71

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Griffin Conine +525 C+ ●●●●●

2 Heriberto Hernández +425 C+ ●●●○○

3 Kyle Stowers +390 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Griffin Conine: Match 41.1% · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Griffin Conine ✶ vs Proxy +525 0.315 · 89.5 · 16.1% 40.0% 41.1% F B O C+ 66

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Junk Edge +330 0.310 · 94.5 · 11.3% 22.2% 28.2% F B O B 70

· — Heriberto Hernández vs Proxy +425 0.234 · 92.3 · 12.0% 12.5% 29.0% F B O C+ 60

· — Kyle Stowers vs Proxy +390 0.213 · 91.4 · 11.7% 12.5% 16.9% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Junk +800 0.160 · 85.7 · 6.5% 44.4% 18.9% F B O D 48

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Junk +625 0.161 · 87.9 · 6.1% 33.3% 19.4% F B O D 46

· HOU Taylor Trammell COOL vs Junk Edge +625 0.160 · 89.1 · 8.2% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 45

· — Joe Mack COOL vs Proxy +575 0.166 · 88.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 47

· — Liam Hicks COOL vs Proxy +750 0.160 · 85.2 · 3.5% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 41

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Junk +600 0.157 · 86.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 42

· — Graham Pauley vs Proxy +750 0.118 · 83.9 · 4.3% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 37

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Junk +600 0.135 · 87.5 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· HOU Zach Dezenzo COOL vs Junk +750 0.113 · 83.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 40

· — Xavier Edwards COOL vs Proxy — 0.120 · 87.1 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 37

· — Jakob Marsee COOL vs Proxy +850 0.095 · 86.7 · 3.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 34

· — Javier Sanoja COOL vs Proxy +950 0.128 · 87.2 · 1.4% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 43.1% ← leak FB 38.0% OFF 18.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

23.2% 18.7% 10.7% 18.4% B 70 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jose Altuve R

6.2% 6.9% 0.0% 6.1% D 48 +800

Yainer Diaz R

2.0% 9.6% 4.2% 6.1% D 46 +625

105

Taylor Trammell L Edge

4.8% 15.9% 0.0% 10.3% D 45 +625

142

Isaac Paredes R

4.1% 7.1% 2.5% 5.7% D 42 +600

158

Zach Dezenzo R

0.0% 12.0% 100.0% 11.1% D 40 +750

164

Jeremy Peña R

3.9% 3.0% 14.3% 4.2% D 39 +600

Read the columns: the breaking family (43.1% usage) carries Junk's damage — BRK is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for HOU Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Altuve Diaz Conine Hernández Stowers

Legend

attack side — vs Junk fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Griffin Conine +525 · 66

Yordan Alvarez +330 · 70

Jose Altuve +800 · 48

Yainer Diaz +625 · 46

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.03× Wind 4 mph in 93°F retractable

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9 mph · in

89°F

7:10p · peak

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9 mph · in

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9 mph · in

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arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.34× 93°F, wind 4 mph W (in) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 70 B +330 COOL 7 0.310 94.5 11.3% 26.7%vs RHP 404 27.4% 22.2% 28.2% 28

2 Jose Altuve 48 D +800 COOL 85 0.160 85.7 6.5% 23.1%vs RHP 377 11.1% 44.4% 18.9% 30

3 Yainer Diaz 46 D +625 WARM 98 0.161 87.9 6.1% 25.0%vs RHP 391 9.7% 33.3% 19.4% 22

4 Taylor Trammell 45 D +625 COOL 105 0.160 89.1 8.2% 18.2%vs RHP 418 10.5% 0.0% 14.4% 5

5 Isaac Paredes 42 D +600 COOL 142 0.157 86.7 6.5% 17.6%vs RHP 373 10.5% 0.0% 10.3% 30

6 Zach Dezenzo 40 D +750 COOL 158 0.113 83.8 8.6% 12.5% 359 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8

7 Jeremy Peña 39 D +600 WARM 164 0.135 87.5 5.4% 15.2%vs RHP 388 7.1% 0.0% 8.6% 17

vs HOU Bullpen Proxy 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Griffin Conine ✶ 66 C+ +525 WARM 16 0.315 89.5 16.1% 57.1% 408 16.7% 40.0% 41.1% 16

2 Heriberto Hernández 60 C+ +425 WARM 34 0.234 92.3 12.0% 21.3% 411 9.8% 12.5% 29.0% 20

3 Kyle Stowers 57 C +390 · 48 0.213 91.4 11.7% 18.2% 396 11.4% 12.5% 16.9% 18

4 Joe Mack 47 D +575 COOL 121 0.166 88.5 8.2% 17.9% 413 11.8% 0.0% 11.7% 16

5 Liam Hicks 41 D +750 COOL 172 0.160 85.2 3.5% 13.7% 376 14.8% 0.0% 10.7% 29

6 Graham Pauley 37 D +750 · 204 0.118 83.9 4.3% 2.9% 362 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0

7 Xavier Edwards 37 D — COOL 205 0.120 87.1 4.4% 6.9% 396 5.2% 0.0% 7.9% 30

8 Jakob Marsee 34 D +850 COOL 219 0.095 86.7 3.2% 5.3% 379 6.4% 0.0% 7.6% 23

9 Javier Sanoja 34 D +950 COOL 220 0.128 87.2 1.4% 5.0% 385 4.8% 0.0% 7.6% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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