TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ CHC

Playable air · 1.09×

DET @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 8:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 10 mph cross 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

7:05p

+1 ↑

8:05p

+1 ↑

9:05p

+1 ↑

10:05p

+1 ↑

11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +1 FIT

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 31 · vs Taillon ⟷ Alex Bregman conv 24 · vs Flaherty → edge: Spencer Torkelson

ATTACK Jameson Taillon RHP · CHC

leak 95

2.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.94 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Colt Keith +400 C ●●●●○

3 Riley Greene +750 C ●●○○○

FADE Jack Flaherty RHP · DET

leak 59

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alex Bregman +350 D ●●●●○

2 Seiya Suzuki +330 C ●●●○○

3 Pete Crow-Armstrong +255 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Spencer Torkelson: 15.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Spencer Torkelson ✶ COOL vs Taillon +320 0.211 · 89.8 · 13.9% 33.3% 28.1% F B O C+ 65

· DET Colt Keith HOT vs Taillon Edge +400 0.143 · 89.3 · 10.0% 33.3% 17.2% F B O C 50

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Flaherty +330 0.194 · 89.2 · 8.8% 22.2% 18.8% F B O C 50

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong COOL vs Flaherty Edge +255 0.230 · 90.1 · 9.5% 11.1% 25.7% F B O C 56

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Taillon Edge +750 0.176 · 91.5 · 13.7% 11.1% 14.5% F B O C 58

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Taillon +330 0.267 · 89.7 · 12.1% 0.0% 20.0% F B O C+ 64

· DET Kerry Carpenter COOL vs Taillon Edge +320 0.219 · 90.1 · 11.7% 0.0% 17.7% F B O C 57

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Flaherty Edge +260 0.211 · 89.6 · 10.0% 0.0% 14.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Flaherty +350 0.142 · 88.0 · 6.0% 33.3% 15.2% F B O D 42

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Flaherty Edge +350 0.164 · 88.3 · 9.2% 11.1% 9.8% F B O D 46

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Flaherty +330 0.196 · 89.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 46

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Taillon Edge +510 0.133 · 87.9 · 10.2% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 46

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Taillon Edge +700 0.098 · 84.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 37

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Flaherty +750 0.092 · 86.0 · 2.6% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.4% ← leak BRK 27.4% OFF 15.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Spencer Torkelson R

17.5% 8.9% 21.1% 15.6% C+ 65 +320

Dillon Dingler R

12.8% 11.5% 6.1% 11.7% C+ 64 +330

Riley Greene L Edge

15.9% 14.0% 8.2% 13.9% C 58 +750

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

10.0% 11.4% 8.3% 10.1% C 57 +320

Colt Keith L Edge

7.6% 17.6% 4.3% 8.5% C 50 +400

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.3% 7.8% 2.0% 7.8% D 46 +510

173

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.5% 2.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 37 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.4% usage) carries Taillon's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.6% BRK 43.7% OFF 2.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

8.8% 12.3% 11.5% 10.3% C 56 +255

Ian Happ S Edge

14.8% 19.6% 3.4% 12.9% C 52 +260

Seiya Suzuki R

9.4% 9.3% 10.5% 9.5% C 50 +330

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Dansby Swanson R

8.0% 4.0% 13.3% 7.4% D 46 +330

104

Michael Busch L Edge

12.6% 6.8% 3.1% 10.2% D 46 +350

136

Alex Bregman R

4.3% 6.2% 6.7% 5.0% D 42 +350

223

Nico Hoerner R

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 27 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Flaherty's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Torkelson Keith Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Taillon fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Spencer Torkelson +320 · 65

Seiya Suzuki +330 · 50

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 10 mph cross 80°F open

↑

12 mph · slight_out

78°F

7:05p · peak

↑

12 mph · slight_out

78°F

8:05p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

78°F

9:05p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

78°F

10:05p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

78°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 80°F, wind 10 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jameson Taillon · RHP 2.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.94 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson ✶ 65 C+ +320 COOL 11 0.211 89.8 13.9% 25.0%vs RHP 394 16.7% 33.3% 28.1% 22

2 Dillon Dingler 64 C+ +330 COOL 14 0.267 89.7 12.1% 28.3%vs RHP 397 18.7% 0.0% 20.0% 14

3 Riley Greene 58 C +750 COOL 30 0.176 91.5 13.7% 16.7%vs RHP 398 12.4% 11.1% 14.5% 18

4 Kerry Carpenter 57 C +320 COOL 33 0.219 90.1 11.7% 25.0%vs RHP 380 15.8% 0.0% 17.7% 13

5 Colt Keith 50 C +400 HOT 68 0.143 89.3 10.0% 14.5%vs RHP 389 7.4% 33.3% 17.2% 16

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 46 D +510 COOL 96 0.133 87.9 10.2% 7.6%vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 28

7 Zach Mckinstry 37 D +700 WARM 173 0.098 84.7 5.9% 8.3%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 21

vs Jack Flaherty · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 56 C +255 COOL 36 0.230 90.1 9.5% 23.2%vs RHP 393 19.2% 11.1% 25.7% 19

2 Ian Happ 52 C +260 COOL 60 0.211 89.6 10.0% 24.6%vs RHP 402 18.4% 0.0% 14.2% 21

3 Seiya Suzuki 50 C +330 WARM 70 0.194 89.2 8.8% 21.3%vs RHP 408 14.1% 22.2% 18.8% 28

4 Dansby Swanson 46 D +330 COOL 97 0.196 89.8 7.8% 19.0%vs RHP 403 13.4% 0.0% 12.8% 26

5 Michael Busch 46 D +350 COOL 104 0.164 88.3 9.2% 15.2%vs RHP 403 13.0% 11.1% 9.8% 28

6 Alex Bregman 42 D +350 WARM 136 0.142 88.0 6.0% 16.7%vs RHP 391 9.3% 33.3% 15.2% 30

7 Nico Hoerner 27 D +750 WARM 223 0.092 86.0 2.6% 3.6%vs RHP 383 4.1% 0.0% 6.8% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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