TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.87×

CIN @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 5 mph out 74°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+2 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +2

Best of game Cole Young conv 30 · vs Abbott ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 27 · vs Kirby → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 72

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cole Young +750 D ●●●●●

2 Randy Arozarena +425 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +390 C ●●○○○

FADE George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 35

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz +390 C ●●●●○

2 Sal Stewart +425 D ●●●○○

3 Tyler Stephenson +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: 15.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ vs Kirby Edge +390 0.234 · 94.4 · 10.3% 33.3% 20.6% F B O C 52

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Abbott +390 0.263 · 92.8 · 10.5% 14.3% 15.3% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SEA Cole Young vs Abbott +750 0.160 · 88.5 · 6.4% 44.4% 14.8% F B O D 43

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Kirby +425 0.214 · 90.6 · 10.1% 22.2% 20.7% F B O D 48

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Abbott Edge +425 0.173 · 91.1 · 7.7% 22.2% 18.1% F B O D 44

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Kirby +575 0.128 · 90.8 · 9.0% 16.7% 11.9% F B O D 36

· CIN Spencer Steer COOL vs Kirby +525 0.197 · 89.8 · 9.3% 11.1% 16.2% F B O D 43

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Kirby Edge +500 0.246 · 89.1 · 8.5% 0.0% 23.7% F B O D 44

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Kirby +475 0.183 · 88.2 · 8.5% 0.0% 18.6% F B O D 36

· SEA Julio Rodríguez COOL vs Abbott Edge +330 0.167 · 90.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 43

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Abbott +850 0.185 · 86.4 · 6.8% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 40

· SEA Cal Raleigh COOL vs Abbott Edge +330 0.139 · 88.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 39

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Abbott +700 0.101 · 87.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.8% ← leak BRK 39.8% OFF 7.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

20.3% 12.8% 4.1% 15.2% C 52 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Sal Stewart R

16.6% 9.1% 10.7% 13.5% D 48 +425

110

Jj Bleday L Edge

10.8% 9.8% 6.2% 9.4% D 44 +500

123

Spencer Steer R

12.9% 10.5% 12.5% 12.2% D 43 +525

181

Eugenio Suarez R

12.0% 2.9% 7.7% 9.7% D 36 +475

184

Tyler Stephenson R

13.1% 4.2% 5.9% 9.9% D 36 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.4% ← leak BRK 33.7% OFF 17.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L

17.8% 17.6% 7.7% 15.0% C 54 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

114

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.5% 9.9% 4.5% 8.2% D 44 +425

124

Cole Young L

5.7% 11.1% 0.0% 6.0% D 43 +750

125

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.9% 7.3% 9.1% 9.1% D 43 +330

152

Colt Emerson L

6.0% 7.4% 5.6% 6.3% D 40 +850

166

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.2% 12.2% 10.5% 10.8% D 39 +330

217

Josh Naylor L

4.5% 7.6% 2.0% 4.8% D 31 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.4% usage) carries Abbott's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Stewart Steer Stephenson Canzone Arozarena Young

Legend

attack side — vs Abbott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Elly De La Cruz +390 · 52

Sal Stewart +425 · 48

Randy Arozarena +425 · 44

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.87× Wind 5 mph out 74°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · out

78°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · out

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.87× 74°F, wind 5 mph N (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs George Kirby · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 52 C +390 · 58 0.234 94.4 10.3% 17.8%vs RHP 398 16.9% 33.3% 20.6% 31

2 Sal Stewart 48 D +425 COOL 83 0.214 90.6 10.1% 21.0%vs RHP 393 13.3% 22.2% 20.7% 31

3 Jj Bleday 44 D +500 · 110 0.246 89.1 8.5% 26.2%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 23.7% 23

4 Spencer Steer 43 D +525 COOL 123 0.197 89.8 9.3% 20.8%vs RHP 394 13.3% 11.1% 16.2% 28

5 Eugenio Suarez 36 D +475 HOT 181 0.183 88.2 8.5% 25.8%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 13

6 Tyler Stephenson 36 D +575 WARM 184 0.128 90.8 9.0% 15.8%vs RHP 395 8.0% 16.7% 11.9% 18

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 54 C +390 COOL 46 0.263 92.8 10.5% 28.1% 400 17.3% 14.3% 15.3% 23

2 Randy Arozarena 44 D +425 · 114 0.173 91.1 7.7% 20.0%vs LHP 393 11.4% 22.2% 18.1% 24

3 Cole Young 43 D +750 WARM 124 0.160 88.5 6.4% 16.7%vs LHP 388 12.6% 44.4% 14.8% 27

4 Julio Rodríguez 43 D +330 COOL 125 0.167 90.1 8.1% 28.6%vs LHP 410 15.7% 0.0% 14.2% 6

5 Colt Emerson 40 D +850 COOL 152 0.185 86.4 6.8% 33.3%vs LHP 369 12.5% 0.0% 12.1% 16

6 Cal Raleigh 39 D +330 COOL 166 0.139 88.1 9.1% 7.1%vs LHP 390 11.8% 0.0% 7.2% 20

7 Josh Naylor 31 D +700 · 217 0.101 87.6 6.0% 6.2%vs LHP 390 7.6% 0.0% 6.1% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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