TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ TEX

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CWS @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph slight_out 97°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:05p

+3 ↑

8:05p

+3 ↑

9:05p

+3 ↑

10:05p

+4 ↑

11:05p

conditions build late — the 11:05p window peaks +4

Best of game Sam Antonacci conv 20 · vs deGrom ⟷ Wyatt Langford conv 27 · vs Fedde → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 93

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sam Antonacci +1000 D ●●●○○

2 Colson Montgomery +400 C ●●○○○

3 Tristan Peters +900 D ●●○○○

FADE Erick Fedde RHP · CWS

leak 8

1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Wyatt Langford +575 C ●●●●○

2 Joc Pederson +370 C ●●●●○

3 Ezequiel Duran +950 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 28.6% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Fedde +575 0.201 · 89.0 · 7.6% 28.6% 25.2% F B O C 52

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ COOL vs Fedde Edge +370 0.239 · 91.9 · 8.9% 28.6% 24.5% F B O C 58

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs deGrom Edge +400 0.240 · 89.2 · 11.0% 11.1% 17.8% F B O C 55

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs deGrom +475 0.239 · 90.5 · 11.5% 11.1% 14.9% F B O C 55

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs deGrom Edge +370 0.291 · 93.9 · 12.9% 0.0% 20.2% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Fedde +950 0.166 · 88.4 · 6.8% 22.2% 21.2% F B O D 47

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs deGrom Edge +1000 0.138 · 87.5 · 7.6% 25.0% 14.5% F B O D 40

· CWS Tristan Peters vs deGrom Edge +900 0.175 · 87.2 · 6.4% 16.7% 10.8% F B O D 39

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs deGrom Edge +950 0.179 · 90.0 · 6.2% 12.5% 13.4% F B O D 39

· TEX Jake Burger vs Fedde +525 0.183 · 89.9 · 8.5% 11.1% 14.4% F B O D 49

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Fedde Edge +950 0.149 · 87.8 · 6.8% 14.3% 10.4% F B O D 42

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Fedde Edge +575 0.166 · 92.5 · 9.5% 11.1% 8.3% F B O D 47

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs deGrom Edge +575 0.179 · 89.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 43

· TEX Elias Díaz COOL vs Fedde — 0.193 · 86.4 · 6.8% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· TEX Josh Jung HOT vs Fedde +750 0.148 · 90.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 41

· CWS Kyle Teel COOL vs deGrom Edge — 0.129 · 84.0 · 10.0% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs deGrom — 0.113 · 87.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Fedde Edge — 0.047 · 85.1 · — 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.0% ← leak BRK 42.3% OFF 13.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

21.7% 14.0% 22.2% 19.0% C 58 +370

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.5% 13.0% 12.5% 13.2% C 55 +400

Miguel Vargas R

16.8% 11.7% 12.9% 14.7% C 55 +475

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

127

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

13.3% 5.9% 6.4% 9.9% D 43 +575

151

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.2% 6.7% 0.0% 6.6% D 40 +1000

159

Braden Montgomery S Edge

4.0% 0.0% 4.3% 3.4% D 39 +950

160

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.5% 4.1% 0.0% 5.0% D 39 +900

168

Kyle Teel L Edge

16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% D 38 —

211

Chase Meidroth R

4.4% 5.8% 2.3% 4.4% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.0% usage) carries deGrom's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.3% ← leak BRK 37.3% OFF 13.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Joc Pederson L Edge

16.5% 9.4% 4.4% 11.8% C 58 +370

Wyatt Langford R

6.6% 11.1% 7.7% 8.1% C 52 +575

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jake Burger R

9.6% 12.1% 10.7% 10.6% D 49 +525

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

10.2% 18.7% 15.0% 13.2% D 47 +575

Ezequiel Duran R

9.1% 6.2% 0.0% 6.9% D 47 +950

119

Elias Díaz R

5.7% 8.3% 5.6% 6.5% D 44 —

141

Evan Carter L Edge

8.7% 5.3% 0.0% 6.4% D 42 +950

148

Josh Jung R

8.7% 3.2% 3.6% 6.3% D 41 +750

227

Nicky Lopez L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.3% usage) carries Fedde's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Montgomery Vargas Antonacci Peters Pederson Langford Duran

Legend

attack side — vs deGrom fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Wyatt Langford +575 · 52

Joc Pederson +370 · 58

Ezequiel Duran +950 · 47

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph slight_out 97°F retractable

↑

5 mph · slight_out

90°F

7:05p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

90°F

8:05p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

90°F

9:05p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

90°F

10:05p

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6 mph · slight_out

89°F

11:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 97°F, wind 4 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 58 C +370 COOL 28 0.291 93.9 12.9% 38.1%vs RHP 409 15.9% 0.0% 20.2% 10

2 Colson Montgomery 55 C +400 COOL 42 0.240 89.2 11.0% 25.4%vs RHP 398 26.0% 11.1% 17.8% 20

3 Miguel Vargas 55 C +475 · 43 0.239 90.5 11.5% 15.8%vs RHP 389 21.0% 11.1% 14.9% 30

4 Andrew Benintendi 43 D +575 COOL 127 0.179 89.1 9.1% 17.2%vs RHP 389 14.3% 0.0% 11.9% 17

5 Sam Antonacci 40 D +1000 COOL 151 0.138 87.5 7.6% 15.2%vs RHP 397 11.1% 25.0% 14.5% 25

6 Braden Montgomery 39 D +950 · 159 0.179 90.0 6.2% 27.3%vs RHP 371 8.3% 12.5% 13.4% 25

7 Tristan Peters 39 D +900 WARM 160 0.175 87.2 6.4% 11.1%vs RHP 377 8.7% 16.7% 10.8% 20

8 Kyle Teel 38 D — COOL 168 0.129 84.0 10.0% 22.2%vs RHP 389 11.1% 0.0% 9.3% 12

9 Chase Meidroth 32 D — COOL 211 0.113 87.8 6.1% 13.9%vs RHP 376 6.2% 0.0% 8.0% 21

vs Erick Fedde · RHP 1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 58 C +370 COOL 27 0.239 91.9 8.9% 30.2%vs RHP 394 20.6% 28.6% 24.5% 17

2 Wyatt Langford 52 C +575 · 54 0.201 89.0 7.6% 18.8%vs RHP 403 16.9% 28.6% 25.2% 22

3 Jake Burger 49 D +525 WARM 79 0.183 89.9 8.5% 23.5%vs RHP 400 14.6% 11.1% 14.4% 24

4 Brandon Nimmo 47 D +575 · 94 0.166 92.5 9.5% 13.3%vs RHP 409 9.1% 11.1% 8.3% 23

5 Ezequiel Duran 47 D +950 WARM 95 0.166 88.4 6.8% 20.5%vs RHP 385 12.5% 22.2% 21.2% 20

6 Elias Díaz 44 D — COOL 119 0.193 86.4 6.8% 0.0%vs RHP 399 18.8% 0.0% 10.5% 13

7 Evan Carter 42 D +950 COOL 141 0.149 87.8 6.8% 15.7%vs RHP 374 10.5% 14.3% 10.4% 15

8 Josh Jung 41 D +750 HOT 148 0.148 90.5 6.7% 15.2%vs RHP 386 10.2% 0.0% 10.5% 21

9 Nicky Lopez 22 D — COOL 227 0.047 85.1 — 7.1%vs RHP 397 2.8% 0.0% 5.9% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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