19
HRs allowed
13.7%
HR rate (pool)
21.0%
Overall HR/FB
3.52
FIP
3.0
xFIP
+0.52
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
89
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 89th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
65.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.5 EV · 398 ft
max EV allowed 114.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Jacob deGrom.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
42.1%
86.0
32.8°
11
-0.3
Slider Breaking
36.1%
82.4
5.2°
2
-2.6
Changeup Offspeed
13.6%
83.1
7.5°
0
-1.4
Curveball Breaking
6.2%
87.8
22.8°
2
+1.3
Sinker Hard
1.9%
81.7
-4.4°
1
+8.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups139
HRs allowed (pool)19
Pool HR rate13.7%
Pool HR/game day1.19
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB21.0% 89
HR/9—
FIP3.52 30
xFIP3.0
FIP − xFIP+0.52 74
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed65.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 42.1% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.0 mph
Avg launch angle32.8°
HRs allowed11
Pitches676
Slider
Breaking · 36.1% usage
-2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle5.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches580
Changeup
Offspeed · 13.6% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle7.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches219
Curveball
Breaking · 6.2% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.8 mph
Avg launch angle22.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches100
Sinker
Hard · 1.9% usage
+8.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle-4.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches30
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Jacob deGrom.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
19 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.5 EV · 398 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-07
9
0
110.9
2026-06-30
7
1
105.1
2026-06-24
8
1
106.2
2026-06-19
7
2
106.5
2026-06-13
9
1
104.0
2026-06-07
9
0
109.9
2026-06-01
9
1
103.2
2026-05-27
9
1
110.0
2026-05-22
9
2
114.9
2026-05-16
9
4
109.1
2026-05-10
9
0
103.1
2026-05-05
9
2
110.9
2026-04-28
9
2
112.7
2026-04-23
9
1
107.5
2026-04-17
9
0
99.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Jacob deGrom isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.