TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.17×

ATH @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 9 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 1 mph slight_out 99°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:40p

+4 ↑

7:40p

+5 ↑

8:40p

+5 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks +5

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 30 · vs Springs ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 38 · vs Bratt → edge: Tyler Soderstrom

ATTACK Jeffrey Springs LHP · ATH

leak 96

2.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +500 C ●●●●●

2 Geraldo Perdomo +850 D ●●○○○

3 Ketel Marte +265 C ●○○○○

FADE Mitch Bratt LHP

leak 48

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom +475 C ●●●●●

2 Shea Langeliers +320 C ●●●●○

3 Henry Bolte +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Tyler Soderstrom: 10.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Tyler Soderstrom ✶ HOT vs Bratt +475 0.246 · 90.4 · 9.5% 50.0% 26.0% F B O C 57

· AZ Nolan Arenado HOT vs Springs Edge +500 0.177 · 85.5 · 8.3% 40.0% 20.6% F B O C 50

· — Shea Langeliers HOT vs Bratt Edge +320 0.237 · 91.9 · 11.3% 22.2% 26.2% F B O C 58

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Springs Edge +265 0.199 · 91.1 · 10.0% 0.0% 15.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Springs Edge +850 0.110 · 86.9 · 5.4% 20.0% 10.2% F B O D 36

· — Henry Bolte vs Bratt Edge +750 0.091 · 90.2 · 7.3% 14.3% 11.0% F B O D 36

· — Jacob Wilson vs Bratt Edge +950 0.112 · 84.2 · 4.0% 11.1% 6.1% F B O D 31

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Springs Edge +750 0.152 · 87.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 38

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Springs Edge +625 0.160 · 89.3 · 8.3% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.7% ← leak BRK 31.5% OFF 22.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.9% 7.4% 4.0% 10.6% C 51 +265

Nolan Arenado R Edge

10.2% 1.2% 3.8% 6.7% C 50 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

140

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

7.6% 8.2% 10.7% 8.2% D 42 +625

167

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.6% 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% D 38 +750

188

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.0% 0.0% 2.9% 3.1% D 36 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.7% usage) carries Springs's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 39.6% ← leak BRK 25.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shea Langeliers R Edge

16.9% 17.0% 15.1% C 58 +320

Tyler Soderstrom L

10.0% 19.6% 10.8% C 57 +475

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

185

Henry Bolte R Edge

6.8% 8.3% 7.1% D 36 +750

218

Jacob Wilson R Edge

3.1% 0.0% 1.9% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (39.6% usage) carries Bratt's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Arenado Perdomo Langeliers Soderstrom

Legend

attack side — vs Springs fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Tyler Soderstrom +475 · 57

Nolan Arenado +500 · 50

Shea Langeliers +320 · 58

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 1 mph slight_out 99°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

101°F

6:40p

↑

5 mph · out

101°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · out

100°F

8:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

99°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

97°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 99°F, wind 1 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jeffrey Springs · LHP 2.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.39 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ketel Marte 51 C +265 COOL 64 0.199 91.1 10.0% 35.0%vs LHP 413 14.8% 0.0% 15.8% 30

2 Nolan Arenado 50 C +500 HOT 69 0.177 85.5 8.3% 21.1%vs LHP 391 13.2% 40.0% 20.6% 25

3 Gabriel Moreno 42 D +625 COOL 140 0.160 89.3 8.3% 16.7%vs LHP 395 7.4% 0.0% 10.5% 33

4 Ildemaro Vargas 38 D +750 WARM 167 0.152 87.3 5.8% 29.4%vs LHP 399 5.6% 0.0% 11.5% 19

5 Geraldo Perdomo 36 D +850 COOL 188 0.110 86.9 5.4% 5.9%vs LHP 386 7.1% 20.0% 10.2% 29

vs Mitch Bratt · LHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 58 C +320 HOT 26 0.237 91.9 11.3% 34.5%vs LHP 416 20.2% 22.2% 26.2% 16

2 Tyler Soderstrom ✶ 57 C +475 HOT 31 0.246 90.4 9.5% 30.0%vs LHP 403 16.7% 50.0% 26.0% 16

3 Henry Bolte 36 D +750 WARM 185 0.091 90.2 7.3% 42.9%vs LHP 422 10.5% 14.3% 11.0% 17

4 Jacob Wilson 31 D +950 WARM 218 0.112 84.2 4.0% 6.2%vs LHP 382 5.7% 11.1% 6.1% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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