0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
12.5%
Overall HR/FB
6.82
FIP
6.73
xFIP
#17
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
48
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 48th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 39.6%
BRK 25.5%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 2 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (39.6% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
3 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
39.6%
91.8
13.2°
1
+0.2
Slurve Breaking
25.5%
83.2
11.9°
0
+3.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB12.5% 48
HR/9—
FIP6.82 98
xFIP6.73
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-20
Fastball
Hard · 39.6% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against91.8 mph
Avg launch angle13.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches42
Slurve
Breaking · 25.5% usage
+3.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle11.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches27
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Mitch Bratt.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Chase Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.896
Wind
1 mph from W
Temp
99°F
Roof
Retractable
TimeWindTempFIT
9:40p
1
99°
+0
10:40p
1
99°
+0
11:40p
1
99°
+0
12:40a
1
99°
+0
1:40a
1
99°
+0
+0
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 1 mph from W
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.