TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ CLE

Progressive Field is live · 1.12×

MIN @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 2 mph out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -6 FIT

Best of game Royce Lewis conv 22 · vs Bibee ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 26 · vs Ryan → edge: Byron Buxton

ATTACK Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 80

1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · leakiest side of this game

1 Royce Lewis — C ●●●○○

2 Kody Clemens — C+ ●●●○○

3 Byron Buxton — C+ ●●○○○

FADE Joe Ryan RHP · MIN

leak 5

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●○

2 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●○○

3 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Byron Buxton: 19.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Ryan — 0.183 · 88.6 · 10.9% 33.3% 17.8% F B O C 50

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Bibee — 0.172 · 89.4 · 10.9% 25.0% 19.4% F B O C 55

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Bibee Edge — 0.258 · 92.7 · 10.9% 11.1% 32.5% F B O C+ 64

· MIN Byron Buxton ✶ vs Bibee — 0.316 · 90.7 · 13.1% 0.0% 23.8% F B O C+ 69

· MIN Josh Bell vs Bibee Edge — 0.173 · 90.0 · 9.7% 0.0% 13.5% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.188 · 88.3 · 6.9% 20.0% 13.1% F B O D 44

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Ryan Edge — 0.133 · 86.6 · 5.3% 20.0% 10.4% F B O D 36

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Ryan Edge — 0.084 · 90.5 · 8.2% 16.7% 10.9% F B O D 36

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Bibee Edge — 0.161 · 87.1 · 8.1% 12.5% 11.2% F B O D 46

· CLE Chase Delauter HOT vs Ryan Edge — 0.184 · 90.9 · 8.3% 0.0% 22.8% F B O D 42

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.177 · 88.0 · 5.9% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 46

· MIN Ryan Kreidler vs Bibee — 0.165 · 87.6 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 45

· CLE David Fry vs Ryan — 0.168 · 85.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 41

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.139 · 89.5 · 8.3% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· CLE Daniel Schneemann vs Ryan Edge — 0.128 · 88.1 · 9.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.057 · 83.1 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 22

· CLE Petey Halpin COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.062 · 85.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 70.0% ← leak OFF 15.8% BRK 14.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Byron Buxton

21.7% 14.8% 17.2% 19.7% C+ 69 —

Kody Clemens L Edge

10.6% 12.2% 20.7% 13.3% C+ 64 —

Royce Lewis R

14.6% 9.1% 11.5% 13.0% C 55 —

Josh Bell S Edge

10.1% 6.2% 14.8% 10.2% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

100

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.1% 1.3% 1.2% 4.0% D 46 —

103

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.7% 3.1% 8.3% 7.8% D 46 —

108

Ryan Kreidler R

9.0% 11.1% 3.0% 7.3% D 45 —

118

Victor Caratini S Edge

6.9% 6.7% 14.8% 8.0% D 44 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.0% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.9% ← leak BRK 32.9% OFF 11.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R

9.1% 14.3% 16.7% 11.0% C 50 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

116

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.8% 4.3% 4.3% 5.2% D 44 —

132

Chase Delauter L Edge

10.8% 6.1% 1.9% 7.9% D 42 —

145

David Fry R

9.1% 4.3% 0.0% 6.8% D 41 —

169

Daniel Schneemann L Edge

12.4% 6.0% 0.0% 8.3% D 38 —

186

Patrick Bailey S Edge

6.9% 5.1% 3.4% 5.7% D 36 —

187

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.6% 3.9% 1.4% 3.1% D 36 —

202

Petey Halpin L Edge

8.0% 7.1% 0.0% 6.5% D 34 —

226

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.9% usage) carries Ryan's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Buxton Clemens Lewis Hoskins Bazzana Bailey Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Bibee fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Royce Lewis — · 55

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 2 mph out 81°F open

-6

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7 mph · in

73°F

6:40p · peak

-6

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7 mph · in

73°F

7:40p

-6

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7 mph · in

73°F

8:40p

-6

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7 mph · in

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7 mph · in

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 81°F, wind 2 mph NNE (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton ✶ 69 C+ — · 8 0.316 90.7 13.1% 32.3%vs RHP 402 31.1% 0.0% 23.8% 0

2 Kody Clemens 64 C+ — · 13 0.258 92.7 10.9% 21.9%vs RHP 389 19.6% 11.1% 32.5% 22

3 Royce Lewis 55 C — WARM 41 0.172 89.4 10.9% 20.0%vs RHP 396 17.5% 25.0% 19.4% 22

4 Josh Bell 50 C — WARM 75 0.173 90.0 9.7% 21.3%vs RHP 404 10.8% 0.0% 13.5% 27

5 Brooks Lee 46 D — COOL 100 0.177 88.0 5.9% 19.0%vs RHP 367 14.4% 0.0% 13.5% 27

6 Trevor Larnach 46 D — · 103 0.161 87.1 8.1% 12.2%vs RHP 399 7.5% 12.5% 11.2% 22

7 Ryan Kreidler 45 D — WARM 108 0.165 87.6 8.2% 23.5%vs RHP 411 6.7% 0.0% 11.5% 16

8 Victor Caratini 44 D — COOL 118 0.139 89.5 8.3% 18.8%vs RHP 404 7.8% 0.0% 10.5% 17

vs Joe Ryan · RHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 50 C — HOT 71 0.183 88.6 10.9% 21.7%vs RHP 383 12.7% 33.3% 17.8% 10

2 Travis Bazzana 44 D — COOL 116 0.188 88.3 6.9% 20.5%vs RHP 398 12.7% 20.0% 13.1% 21

3 Chase Delauter 42 D — HOT 132 0.184 90.9 8.3% 25.0%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 29

4 David Fry 41 D — WARM 145 0.168 85.8 8.6% 16.7%vs RHP 379 10.5% 0.0% 11.4% 1

5 Daniel Schneemann 38 D — WARM 169 0.128 88.1 9.0% 11.9%vs RHP 398 6.6% 0.0% 8.2% 10

6 Patrick Bailey 36 D — · 186 0.084 90.5 8.2% 6.9%vs RHP 399 4.1% 16.7% 10.9% 14

7 Brayan Rocchio 36 D — WARM 187 0.133 86.6 5.3% 13.6%vs RHP 386 7.6% 20.0% 10.4% 33

8 Petey Halpin 34 D — COOL 202 0.062 85.2 8.0% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 9

9 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 226 0.057 83.1 2.0% 2.0%vs RHP 381 1.1% 0.0% 6.9% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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