16
HRs allowed
9.3%
HR rate (pool)
11.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.02
FIP
3.68
xFIP
-0.67
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
41
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 41th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
64.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.6 EV · 388 ft
max EV allowed 115.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Joe Ryan.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
45.0%
82.8
33.9°
6
-0.8
Sweeper Breaking
15.0%
78.0
19.3°
2
-1.0
Splitter Offspeed
11.3%
84.2
1.4°
1
-1.2
Knuckle Curve Breaking
11.2%
81.2
11.5°
1
-1.8
Sinker Hard
10.9%
84.2
13.7°
1
-1.3
Slider Breaking
6.7%
81.9
10.9°
0
-0.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups172
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate9.3%
Pool HR/game day0.8
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB11.6% 41
HR/9—
FIP3.02 15
xFIP3.68
FIP − xFIP-0.67 13
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed64.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 45.0% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle33.9°
HRs allowed6
Pitches845
Sweeper
Breaking · 15.0% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.0 mph
Avg launch angle19.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches281
Splitter
Offspeed · 11.3% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches213
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 11.2% usage
-1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle11.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches210
Sinker
Hard · 10.9% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle13.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches204
Slider
Breaking · 6.7% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle10.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches125
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Joe Ryan.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.6 EV · 388 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
9
0
110.6
2026-07-05
8
0
107.3
2026-06-30
8
1
115.1
2026-06-24
9
2
110.7
2026-06-18
9
2
106.4
2026-06-12
6
1
111.7
2026-06-06
6
1
109.8
2026-06-01
9
2
106.2
2026-05-26
9
1
108.4
2026-05-20
9
0
114.7
2026-05-15
9
0
111.9
2026-05-09
9
0
109.6
2026-05-03
9
1
112.2
2026-04-28
9
1
108.7
2026-04-23
9
1
110.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Joe Ryan isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.