TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.20×

PIT @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 4 mph cross 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:05p

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8:05p

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9:05p

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10:05p

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11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +10 FIT

Best of game Esmerlyn Valdez conv 49 · vs Weathers ⟷ Ben Rice conv 37 · vs Ashcraft → edge: Esmerlyn Valdez

ATTACK Ryan Weathers LHP · NYY

leak 96

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · leakiest side of this game

1 Esmerlyn Valdez +600 B ●●●●●

2 Marcell Ozuna — D ●●●○○

3 Henry Davis +950 C ●●●○○

FADE Braxton Ashcraft RHP · PIT

leak 90

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +625 B ●●●●●

2 Trent Grisham +750 C ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells +700 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Esmerlyn Valdez: 27.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 55.6% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Esmerlyn Valdez ✶ vs Weathers Edge +600 0.412 · 92.9 · 16.3% 55.6% 42.2% F B O B 77

· NYY Ben Rice HOT vs Ashcraft Edge +625 0.320 · 92.3 · 9.8% 36.4% 37.7% F B O B 71

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Ashcraft Edge +750 0.180 · 91.2 · 8.4% 30.0% 17.3% F B O C 51

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Ashcraft +950 0.226 · 86.4 · 8.5% 14.3% 24.5% F B O C 55

· PIT Henry Davis COOL vs Weathers Edge +950 0.185 · 89.6 · 9.8% 14.3% 21.6% F B O C 53

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Weathers — 0.190 · 89.8 · 8.8% 9.1% 23.2% F B O C 53

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Weathers Edge +900 0.195 · 90.9 · 10.1% 9.1% 20.5% F B O C 55

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Weathers +850 0.233 · 91.0 · 10.9% 0.0% 16.6% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells vs Ashcraft Edge +700 0.104 · 89.1 · 6.4% 25.0% 15.6% F B O D 42

· PIT Marcell Ozuna vs Weathers Edge — 0.122 · 89.4 · 9.2% 20.0% 18.8% F B O D 47

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.093 · 85.8 · 5.2% 18.2% 8.7% F B O D 37

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Ashcraft Edge +900 0.166 · 90.8 · 8.4% 0.0% 19.7% F B O D 44

· NYY Jasson Dominguez COOL vs Ashcraft Edge — 0.198 · 87.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 18.0% F B O D 42

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Ashcraft — 0.140 · 83.7 · 4.8% 0.0% 15.5% F B O D 36

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Ashcraft Edge +850 0.160 · 89.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 43

· PIT Billy Cook vs Weathers Edge +950 0.022 · 85.3 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 39

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.079 · 87.5 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.0% ← leak BRK 31.4% OFF 23.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Esmerlyn Valdez R Edge

20.5% 45.0% 0.0% 27.9% B 77 +600

Neutral · 4

Brandon Lowe L

16.5% 6.9% 12.0% 12.5% C 58 +850

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.8% 14.5% 5.3% 10.6% C 55 +900

Ryan O'Hearn L

9.6% 7.4% 4.5% 8.5% C 53 —

Henry Davis R Edge

11.0% 5.4% 15.4% 9.8% C 53 +950

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Marcell Ozuna R Edge

8.5% 11.5% 0.0% 8.4% D 47 —

162

Billy Cook R Edge

8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% D 39 +950

180

Nick Gonzales R Edge

1.7% 5.8% 0.0% 2.8% D 37 —

207

Jared Triolo R Edge

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.0% usage) carries Weathers's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 49.4% FB 45.7% OFF 4.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

11.5% 18.7% 12.2% 15.5% B 71 +625

Neutral · 2

Paul Goldschmidt R

5.7% 15.2% 10.7% 11.8% C 55 +950

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.1% 11.7% 5.9% 10.7% C 51 +750

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

112

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

5.3% 13.1% 20.0% 12.0% D 44 +900

128

Cody Bellinger L Edge

12.3% 3.3% 9.1% 6.3% D 43 +850

134

Jasson Dominguez S Edge

10.5% 3.1% 6.2% 5.2% D 42 —

135

Austin Wells L Edge

6.9% 9.1% 0.0% 7.2% D 42 +700

183

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 36 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Ashcraft's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Valdez Reynolds O'Hearn Davis Ozuna Gonzales Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Weathers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Esmerlyn Valdez +600 · 77

Ben Rice +625 · 71

Marcell Ozuna — · 47

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.09× Wind 4 mph cross 80°F open

+10

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9 mph · out

73°F

7:05p · peak

+10

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9 mph · out

73°F

8:05p

+10

↑

9 mph · out

73°F

9:05p

+10

↑

9 mph · out

73°F

10:05p

+10

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9 mph · out

72°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 80°F, wind 4 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Weathers · LHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Esmerlyn Valdez ✶ 77 B +600 WARM 3 0.412 92.9 16.3% 41.7%vs LHP 396 33.3% 55.6% 42.2% 18

2 Brandon Lowe 58 C +850 COOL 29 0.233 91.0 10.9% 16.7%vs LHP 392 16.1% 0.0% 16.6% 21

3 Bryan Reynolds 55 C +900 WARM 39 0.195 90.9 10.1% 26.1%vs LHP 409 13.7% 9.1% 20.5% 17

4 Ryan O'Hearn 53 C — WARM 49 0.190 89.8 8.8% 18.2%vs LHP 384 14.3% 9.1% 23.2% 25

5 Henry Davis 53 C +950 COOL 50 0.185 89.6 9.8% 18.2%vs LHP 390 13.3% 14.3% 21.6% 14

6 Marcell Ozuna 47 D — · 88 0.122 89.4 9.2% 22.2%vs LHP 404 9.6% 20.0% 18.8% 10

7 Billy Cook 39 D +950 WARM 162 0.022 85.3 5.6% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 5

8 Nick Gonzales 37 D — COOL 180 0.093 85.8 5.2% 5.3%vs LHP 396 6.5% 18.2% 8.7% 26

9 Jared Triolo 33 D — COOL 207 0.079 87.5 4.4% 0.0%vs LHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 24

vs Braxton Ashcraft · RHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 71 B +625 HOT 6 0.320 92.3 9.8% 36.1%vs RHP 389 26.4% 36.4% 37.7% 29

2 Paul Goldschmidt 55 C +950 COOL 44 0.226 86.4 8.5% 24.1%vs RHP 391 17.9% 14.3% 24.5% 13

3 Trent Grisham 51 C +750 · 62 0.180 91.2 8.4% 16.0%vs RHP 390 12.3% 30.0% 17.3% 31

4 Ryan Mcmahon 44 D +900 WARM 112 0.166 90.8 8.4% 25.0%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 14

5 Cody Bellinger 43 D +850 COOL 128 0.160 89.0 6.3% 10.6%vs RHP 379 9.8% 0.0% 10.9% 26

6 Jasson Dominguez 42 D — COOL 134 0.198 87.8 5.3% 35.7%vs RHP 371 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 28

7 Austin Wells 42 D +700 WARM 135 0.104 89.1 6.4% 12.9%vs RHP 378 9.2% 25.0% 15.6% 16

8 Jose Caballero 36 D — WARM 183 0.140 83.7 4.8% 18.8%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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