9
HRs allowed
6.0%
HR rate (pool)
9.7%
Overall HR/FB
2.22
FIP
2.59
xFIP
-0.36
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
23
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 23th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
58.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.6 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 112.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Dylan Cease.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
35.7%
82.2
31.3°
4
-0.5
Slider Breaking
29.0%
78.6
7.1°
1
-2.9
Changeup Offspeed
11.5%
75.3
19.3°
0
-0.5
Sinker Hard
9.7%
79.8
19.1°
0
-2.8
Knuckle Curve Breaking
9.5%
82.0
-3.8°
0
+0.0
Sweeper Breaking
4.6%
78.4
9.6°
0
+0.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups150
HRs allowed (pool)9
Pool HR rate6.0%
Pool HR/game day0.53
Top-15 matchups10
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB9.7% 23
HR/9—
FIP2.22 3
xFIP2.59
FIP − xFIP-0.36 25
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed58.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 35.7% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle31.3°
HRs allowed4
Pitches643
Slider
Breaking · 29.0% usage
-2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.6 mph
Avg launch angle7.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches523
Changeup
Offspeed · 11.5% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.3 mph
Avg launch angle19.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches208
Sinker
Hard · 9.7% usage
-2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.8 mph
Avg launch angle19.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches174
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 9.5% usage
+0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle-3.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches171
Sweeper
Breaking · 4.6% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.4 mph
Avg launch angle9.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches82
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Dylan Cease.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
9 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.6 EV · 396 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-08
9
0
109.3
2026-07-03
9
0
101.0
2026-06-27
9
1
107.7
2026-06-22
8
0
102.4
2026-06-21
8
0
—
2026-06-16
9
1
109.0
2026-06-09
8
0
109.9
2026-05-24
9
2
106.5
2026-05-19
9
2
104.1
2026-05-13
9
0
111.4
2026-05-08
9
0
112.7
2026-05-02
9
1
107.4
2026-04-27
9
1
107.9
2026-04-20
9
0
105.9
2026-04-15
9
0
107.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Dylan Cease isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.