Slate · 2026-07-19

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2026-07-19

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-19. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.9% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Due	BP	Weather	Hit?
1	·James Wood (L) ³	79	·	Jacob Lopez (LHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	4:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	28	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV95.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.5×	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.0% HR/91.60 FIP5.06 IP901.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
2	·Kyle Schwarber (L) ⁵	74	·	Nolan McLean (RHP) NYM @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	1:35p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.12 FIP4.11 IP899.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+9 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82.0°F Wind6.0 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+9 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph NE (in) — modifier: +1
3	·Shohei Ohtani (L) ³	76	+3.9	NYY Bullpen Proxy LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:20p	🟡 B	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%17.2% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.3×	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.79 IP887.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-48 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind9.0 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-48 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note79°F, wind 9 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0
4	·Ben Rice (L) ⁵	72	+6.8	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	12:35p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.0×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.05 FIP3.76 IP840.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-48 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind9.0 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-48 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note79°F, wind 9 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0
5	·Matt Olson (L) ⁴	71	·	Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) TEX @ ATL · Truist Park	1:35p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	26	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.1% HR/91.26 FIP4.16 IP862.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+7 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp91.8°F Wind6.5 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+7 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note92°F, wind 7 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3
6	Esmerlyn Valdez (R) ³	71	·	Joey Cantillo (LHP) PIT @ CLE · Progressive Field	1:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%14.7% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.18 FIP4.03 IP884.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+37 Weather · Progressive Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.3°F Wind3 mph W Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+37 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 3 mph W (cross) — modifier: +0	Esmerlyn Valdez — Home Run OffWill Dion Exit Velo102.2 mph Angle41.0° Distance371 ft StadiumProgressive Field
7	·Ben Rice (L) ⁵	70	+6.1	Will Klein (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:20p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%8.4% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.0×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.05 FIP3.76 IP840.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-48 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind9.0 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-48 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note79°F, wind 9 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0
8	·Shea Langeliers (R) ⁴	69	·	Foster Griffin (LHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls13 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.42 FIP4.68 IP874.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
9	·Juan Soto (L) ³	69	·	Alan Rangel (RHP) NYM @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.7% HR/91.25 FIP3.88 IP877.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+3 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82.0°F Wind6.0 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph NE (in) — modifier: +1
10	·Elly De La Cruz (S) ³	69	·	Ryan Feltner (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV94.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.4×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.83 IP884.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+3 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp93.0°F Wind5.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 5 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3
11	·Jake Bauers (L) ³	69	·	Eury Pérez (RHP) MIA @ MIL · American Family Field	2:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/90.98 FIP3.97 IP907.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+17 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp77.9°F Wind5.0 mph NE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+17 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 5 mph NE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
12	·Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁵	69	·	Brandon Young (RHP) BAL @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	2:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	31	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV94.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/91.07 FIP4.12 IP867.5 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-15 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp93.2°F Wind4 mph SW Characterin HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 4 mph SW (in) — modifier: +3
13	·Curtis Mead (R) ⁴	68	·	Jacob Lopez (LHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%7.6% Avg EV88.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.8×	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.0% HR/91.60 FIP5.06 IP901.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
14	·Tyler Soderstrom (L) ⁴	67	·	Foster Griffin (LHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	16	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls13 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.42 FIP4.68 IP874.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
15	·Joc Pederson (L) ²	67	·	Grant Holmes (RHP) TEX @ ATL · Truist Park	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.11 FIP4.09 IP856.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+7 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp91.8°F Wind6.5 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+7 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note92°F, wind 7 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3
16	·Shohei Ohtani (L) ³	67	+0.9	Cam Schlittler (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	12:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%11.9% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.3×	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.79 IP887.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-48 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind9.0 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-48 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note79°F, wind 9 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0
17	Hunter Goodman (R)	66	·	Hunter Greene (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	30	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.38 FIP4.94 IP859.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+4 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp93.0°F Wind5.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+4 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 5 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3	Hunter Goodman — Home Run OffSam Moll Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle29.0° Distance442 ft StadiumCoors Field
18	·Junior Caminero (R) ³	64	·	Sonny Gray (RHP) TB @ BOS · Fenway Park	1:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	29	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.6% HR/91.09 FIP3.91 IP869.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+39 Weather · Fenway Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78.5°F Wind6.0 mph SSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+39 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note79°F, wind 6 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1
19	·Kody Clemens (L) ³	63	·	Shota Imanaga (LHP) MIN @ CHC · Wrigley Field	2:20p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.9% HR/91.58 FIP4.80 IP861.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-1 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.8°F Wind5.0 mph ENE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-1 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 5 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0
20	Sal Stewart (R) ²	63	·	Ryan Feltner (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.83 IP884.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+3 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp93.0°F Wind5.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 5 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3	Sal Stewart — Home Run OffRyan Feltner Exit Velo105.3 mph Angle32.0° Distance456 ft StadiumCoors Field
21	·Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ⁴	62	·	Zebby Matthews (RHP) MIN @ CHC · Wrigley Field	2:20p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.3×	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.4% HR/91.12 FIP4.27 IP904.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.8°F Wind5.0 mph ENE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 5 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0
22	·Spencer Steer (R)	62	·	Ryan Feltner (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.4×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.83 IP884.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+4 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp93.0°F Wind5.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+4 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 5 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3
23	·Griffin Conine (L) ⁴	61	·	Robert Gasser (LHP) MIA @ MIL · American Family Field	2:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	7	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.4% HR/90.99 FIP3.61 IP876.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+17 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp77.9°F Wind5.0 mph NE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+17 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 5 mph NE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
24	·Pete Alonso (R) ⁴	61	·	Hunter Brown (RHP) BAL @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	2:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	HOU Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.44 FIP4.95 IP881.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-18 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp93.2°F Wind4 mph SW Characterin HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-18 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 4 mph SW (in) — modifier: +3
25	Willson Contreras (R) ³	61	·	Shane McClanahan (LHP) TB @ BOS · Fenway Park	1:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.23 FIP4.12 IP835.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+39 Weather · Fenway Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78.5°F Wind6.0 mph SSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+39 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note79°F, wind 6 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1	Willson Contreras — Home Run OffShane McClanahan Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle29.0° Distance414 ft StadiumFenway Park
26	Nathaniel Lowe (L) ³	61	·	Ryan Feltner (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	11	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls7 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV89.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.83 IP884.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp93.0°F Wind5.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 5 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3	Nathaniel Lowe — Home Run OffRyan Feltner Exit Velo106.9 mph Angle35.0° Distance420 ft StadiumCoors Field
27	·Max Muncy (L) ²	64	+4.2	NYY Bullpen Proxy LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:20p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	5	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%13.8% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.79 IP887.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-49 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind9.0 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-49 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note79°F, wind 9 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0
28	·Jj Bleday (L) ⁴	60	·	Ryan Feltner (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV89.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.83 IP884.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp93.0°F Wind5.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 5 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3
29	·Heriberto Hernández (R) ³	60	·	Robert Gasser (LHP) MIA @ MIL · American Family Field	2:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV92.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.7×	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.4% HR/90.99 FIP3.61 IP876.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+16 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp77.9°F Wind5.0 mph NE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+16 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 5 mph NE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
30	·Kazuma Okamoto (R) ³	60	·	Sean Burke (RHP) CWS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	12:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.5×	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.10 FIP4.32 IP861.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.1%

▼ -3.9 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 19.2% prior 15d

Results · 2026-07-19

31 HRs

29%

9 caught / 31 HRs

in top 50

#6 Esmerlyn Valdez

33.9%

🟡

#18 Hunter Goodman

24.5%

🔵

#21 CJ Abrams

22.8%

🔵

#22 Sal Stewart

22.8%

🔵

#28 Willson Contreras

25.5%

🔵

#29 Nathaniel Lowe

24.7%

🔵

#35 Drake Baldwin

19.4%

🔵

#45 Wyatt Langford

20.3%

🟠

#50 Colson Montgomery

15.4%

🟠

Missed

Jac Caglianone Ty France Coby Mayo Dylan Crews Riley Greene +17 more

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.7%

B 19.7%

C+ 16.7%

C 13.6%

D 8.8%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Slate · 2026-07-19

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.