11
HRs allowed
18.0%
HR rate (pool)
8.3%
Overall HR/FB
2.84
FIP
3.22
xFIP
-0.38
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
13
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 13th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
77.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.4 EV · 391 ft
max EV allowed 112.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 6 HR ↑
15D · 7 HR ↑
30D · 8 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Hunter Brown.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
33.2%
83.8
33.0°
1
-1.4
Sinker Hard
28.8%
77.5
13.1°
2
-0.6
Knuckle Curve Breaking
19.2%
82.6
-12.7°
0
+0.7
Changeup Offspeed
9.7%
79.8
11.9°
1
+0.8
Slider Breaking
9.0%
84.2
0.9°
1
+2.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups61
HRs allowed (pool)11
Pool HR rate18.0%
Pool HR/game day1.57
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB8.3% 13
HR/9—
FIP2.84 11
xFIP3.22
FIP − xFIP-0.38 25
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed77.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-18
Fastball
Hard · 33.2% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle33.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches235
Sinker
Hard · 28.8% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.5 mph
Avg launch angle13.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches204
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 19.2% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.6 mph
Avg launch angle-12.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches136
Changeup
Offspeed · 9.7% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.8 mph
Avg launch angle11.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches69
Slider
Breaking · 9.0% usage
+2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle0.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches64
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Hunter Brown.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
11 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.4 EV · 391 ft
8 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 7 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
9
3
108.6
2026-07-04
8
3
107.5
2026-06-28
9
1
104.8
2026-06-22
8
1
105.4
2026-06-16
9
0
112.0
2026-03-31
9
1
104.9
2026-03-26
9
2
108.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Hunter Brown isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.