Today · 2026-07-18

Share Slate 🧙 Morning Wizard 🎲 Build Variance Card

241 scored matchups · top 5 preview · upgrade for full slate Lineups loading…

2:20p

🔥

3:07p

3:10p

4:05p

4:10p

🔥

4:10p

🔥

4:10p

🔥

7:10p

🔥

8:08p

🔥

10:05p

10:07p

Locks 0/6

Daily Routine ready Routine

Prime Card 0/6 not saved

‹

⭐ Today's Slate

›

Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 6 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#5 Munetaka Murakami vs Shane Bieber FIP 8.52 HR/FB 33.3% #6 Jj Bleday vs Tomoyuki Sugano FIP 5.46 HR/FB 22.2% #8 Elly De La Cruz vs Tomoyuki Sugano FIP 5.46 HR/FB 22.2% #9 Colson Montgomery vs Shane Bieber FIP 8.52 HR/FB 33.3% #13 Miguel Vargas vs Shane Bieber FIP 8.52 HR/FB 40.0% #14 Tyler Soderstrom vs Zack Littell FIP 6.2 HR/FB 27.4%

📦 STACK Shane Bieber FIP 8.52 HR/FB 33.3% → #5 Munetaka Murakami, #9 Colson Montgomery, #13 Miguel Vargas

📦 STACK Tomoyuki Sugano FIP 5.46 HR/FB 22.2% → #6 Jj Bleday, #8 Elly De La Cruz

📦 STACK Zack Littell FIP 6.2 HR/FB 15.4% → #7 Shea Langeliers, #14 Tyler Soderstrom

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-17. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.7% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	James Wood (L) ⁴	79	-8.9	●	J.T. Ginn (RHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	10:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	28	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV95.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffWill Warren Exit Velo110.0 mph Angle26.0° Distance434 ft StadiumNationals Park	○●●●○	0.5×	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.58 FIP5.04 IP894.3000000000001 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR NoteUnknown stadium
2	Ben Rice (L) ³	78	-6.8	●	Emmet Sheehan (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	8:08p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV92.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffCarson Palmquist Exit Velo102.0 mph Angle29.0° Distance387 ft StadiumNationals Park	●●○○○	1.5×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.06 FIP3.78 IP831.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+19 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.9°F Wind6.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+19 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR Note72°F, wind 6 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0
3	Kyle Schwarber (L) ⁵	75	-14.7	●	Sean Manaea (LHP) NYM @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	4:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	32	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffRhett Lowder Exit Velo105.6 mph Angle25.0° Distance387 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	○○○○○	1.7×	1	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.12 FIP4.11 IP898.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+22 Weather · Citizens Bank Park mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.9°F Wind5.0 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0
4	Shohei Ohtani (L) ⁴	73	-11.9	●	Ryan Weathers (LHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	8:08p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%12.9% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffMitch Bratt Exit Velo111.8 mph Angle33.0° Distance437 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○●○●○	0.3×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.80 IP878.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+9 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.9°F Wind6.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+9 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note72°F, wind 6 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0
5	Shea Langeliers (R) ⁴	73	-11.9	●	Zack Littell (RHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	10:05p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls10 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffJorbit Vivas Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle24.0° Distance399 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○●●	0.0×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.42 FIP4.71 IP866.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR NoteUnknown stadium
6	Elly De La Cruz (S) ⁵	73	·	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🟡 B	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%14.0% Avg EV94.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffJeff Criswell Exit Velo105.8 mph Angle24.0° Distance434 ft StadiumCoors Field	○●○○●	0.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.39 FIP4.83 IP877.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+19 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp68.8°F Wind3 mph SSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+19 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note69°F, wind 3 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
7	Munetaka Murakami (L) ⁵	72	-7.1	●	Shane Bieber (RHP) CWS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls4 BBE Barrel%15.2% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	52d Last HR · 2026-05-27 OffConnor Prielipp Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle24.0° Distance432 ft StadiumRate Field	○○○○○	2.0×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.16 FIP4.09 IP874.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
8	Colson Montgomery (L) ⁵	70	-5.9	●	Shane Bieber (RHP) CWS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	23	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV89.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffTanner Bibee Exit Velo109.7 mph Angle20.0° Distance390 ft StadiumProgressive Field	○○○○○	2.3×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.16 FIP4.09 IP874.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
9	Hunter Goodman (R) ³	70	·	●	Rhett Lowder (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	27	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%12.1% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	17d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffMax Meyer Exit Velo104.3 mph Angle45.0° Distance403 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○○○	3.7×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.39 FIP4.96 IP849.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+22 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp68.8°F Wind3 mph SSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note69°F, wind 3 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
10	Jake Bauers (L) ⁴	69	-2.9	●	Max Meyer (RHP) MIA @ MIL · American Family Field	4:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo111.8 mph Angle22.0° Distance375 ft StadiumPNC Park	○●●○○	0.5×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.9% HR/90.98 FIP3.96 IP897.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+14 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp79.3°F Wind4 mph SW Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+14 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note79°F, wind 4 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1
11	Miguel Vargas (R) ⁴	69	-5.7	●	Shane Bieber (RHP) CWS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%13.3% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffCarlos Cortes Exit Velo101.3 mph Angle31.0° Distance384 ft StadiumRate Field	○●○○○	0.6×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.16 FIP4.09 IP874.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
12	Tyler Soderstrom (L) ⁵	69	-6.3	●	Zack Littell (RHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	10:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls8 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffCade Cavalli Exit Velo105.6 mph Angle22.0° Distance415 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○●○●	0.0×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.42 FIP4.71 IP866.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR NoteUnknown stadium
13	Matt Olson (L) ²	68	-7.5	●	MacKenzie Gore (LHP) TEX @ ATL · Truist Park	4:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	26	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffCal Quantrill Exit Velo110.7 mph Angle27.0° Distance420 ft StadiumTruist Park	●○○○●	0.0×	1	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.25 FIP4.13 IP857.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Truist Park mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.8°F Wind4.0 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +0
14	Sal Stewart (R) ³	67	·	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%13.7% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffTanner Banks Exit Velo100.3 mph Angle32.0° Distance358 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	○○○○○	0.8×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.39 FIP4.83 IP877.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+17 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp68.8°F Wind3 mph SSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+17 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note69°F, wind 3 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
15	Curtis Mead (R) ²	66	+1.8	●	J.T. Ginn (RHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	10:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV87.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffCam Schlittler Exit Velo100.5 mph Angle33.0° Distance388 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○●○	0.2×	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.58 FIP5.04 IP894.3000000000001 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR NoteUnknown stadium
16	Samuel Basallo (L)	66	-4.7	●	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) BAL @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	4:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffLucas Erceg Exit Velo105.0 mph Angle22.0° Distance404 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○●○●○	0.2×	·	HOU Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.44 FIP4.97 IP872.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-11 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp80.6°F Wind2.0 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note81°F, wind 2 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +1
17	Pete Alonso (R) ²	66	-7.2	●	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) BAL @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	4:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffNoah Cameron Exit Velo103.9 mph Angle25.0° Distance420 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○●○○	0.5×	·	HOU Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.44 FIP4.97 IP872.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-16 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp80.6°F Wind2.0 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-16 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note81°F, wind 2 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +1
18	Jj Bleday (L) ⁵	65	·	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV89.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	○○	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.39 FIP4.83 IP877.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+15 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp68.8°F Wind3 mph SSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+15 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note69°F, wind 3 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
19	Yordan Alvarez (L) ³	65	-11.1	●	Trevor Rogers (LHP) BAL @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	4:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	31	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV94.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffKumar Rocker Exit Velo112.8 mph Angle28.0° Distance425 ft StadiumGlobe Life Field	○●●○○	1.0×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.08 FIP4.11 IP859.5 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-11 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp80.6°F Wind2.0 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note81°F, wind 2 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +1
20	Juan Soto (L) ³	65	-7.5	●	Jesús Luzardo (LHP) NYM @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%9.2% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-07-09 OffBeck Way Exit Velo106.6 mph Angle29.0° Distance435 ft StadiumCiti Field	●○○○○	1.3×	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.7% HR/91.25 FIP3.88 IP877.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+25 Weather · Citizens Bank Park mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.9°F Wind5.0 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0
21	Nathaniel Lowe (L) ⁴	64	·	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	10	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls7 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV88.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffJavier Assad Exit Velo105.4 mph Angle26.0° Distance381 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	○○○●○	0.2×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.39 FIP4.83 IP877.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+14 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp68.8°F Wind3 mph SSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+14 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note69°F, wind 3 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
22	Paul Goldschmidt (R) ³	63	-4.3	●	Emmet Sheehan (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	8:08p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	15	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls12 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV86.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffClayton Beeter Exit Velo103.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance395 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○●○	0.3×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.06 FIP3.78 IP831.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-13 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.9°F Wind6.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-13 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note72°F, wind 6 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0
23	Max Muncy (L) ³	63	-4.7	●	Ryan Weathers (LHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	8:08p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	5	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffGerrit Cole Exit Velo107.9 mph Angle31.0° Distance416 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○○○●	0.0×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.80 IP878.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+10 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.9°F Wind6.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+10 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note72°F, wind 6 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0
24	Junior Caminero (R)	66	-14.2	●	BOS Bullpen Proxy TB @ BOS · Fenway Park	4:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	29	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%13.6% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffEduardo Rivera Exit Velo111.6 mph Angle26.0° Distance423 ft StadiumFenway Park	●○○●●	0.0×	·	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.10 FIP3.92 IP851.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+55 Weather · Fenway Park cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp64.4°F Wind2.0 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+55 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note64°F, wind 2 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
25	Jordan Walker (R) ⁵	62	-4.6	●	Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) STL @ AZ · Chase Field	4:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-07-09 OffChad Patrick Exit Velo106.5 mph Angle28.0° Distance406 ft StadiumBusch Stadium	●○○○○	1.3×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.29 FIP4.52 IP859.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+7 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp85.9°F Wind2.0 mph WNW Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+7 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note86°F, wind 2 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +2
26	Spencer Steer (R) ³	62	·	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffJeff Criswell Exit Velo102.4 mph Angle26.0° Distance421 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.39 FIP4.83 IP877.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+22 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp68.8°F Wind3 mph SSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note69°F, wind 3 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
27	Cj Abrams (L) ³	60	-5.6	●	J.T. Ginn (RHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	10:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%8.2% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	43d Last HR · 2026-06-05 OffMerrill Kelly Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle20.0° Distance386 ft StadiumChase Field	●○○○	·	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.58 FIP5.04 IP894.3000000000001 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR NoteUnknown stadium
28	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ³	60	-9.9	●	Taj Bradley (RHP) MIN @ CHC · Wrigley Field	2:20p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffDean Kremer Exit Velo106.7 mph Angle35.0° Distance419 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○○	1.7×	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/91.13 FIP4.29 IP897.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+57 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.4°F Wind6.0 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+57 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note80°F, wind 6 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1
29	Kazuma Okamoto (R)	60	-5.6	●	Davis Martin (RHP) CWS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffJhony Brito Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle44.0° Distance377 ft StadiumPetco Park	●●○○○	1.5×	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.08 FIP4.29 IP852.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
30	Kody Clemens (L)	60	-1.2	●	Matthew Boyd (LHP) MIN @ CHC · Wrigley Field	2:20p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	16	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	14d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffBrendan Beck Exit Velo101.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance393 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○○○○	2.7×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.9% HR/91.58 FIP4.82 IP852.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+55 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.4°F Wind6.0 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+55 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note80°F, wind 6 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

You saw the full board yesterday

Tonight's full board — all 150 ranked picks + conviction tools — is behind the wall. Check our public track record, then unlock it with a 7-day money-back guarantee.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

236 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

Lock your picks, track your hit rate, and analyze co-occurrence.

Upgrade to Unlock

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.8%

▲ +2.6 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 16.4% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-07-17

32 HRs

31%

10 caught / 32 HRs

in top 50

#6 Matt Olson

33.0%

🟡

#18 Shea Langeliers

29.0%

🔵

#20 Willson Contreras

31.4%

🔵

#25 Max Muncy

20.4%

🔵

#28 Ryan Jeffers

23.6%

🔵

#29 Tyler Soderstrom

31.4%

🟠

#33 Elly De La Cruz

20.7%

🟠

#34 Drake Baldwin

13.2%

🟠

#35 Junior Caminero

29.9%

🟠

#43 Junior Caminero

24.1%

🟠

Missed

Griffin Conine Ty France George Springer Eugenio Suárez Willi Castro +17 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Junior Caminero ×4 James Wood ×3 Elly De La Cruz ×2 Esmerlyn Valdez ×2 JJ Bleday ×2

❄️ Cold

Ian Happ 0 of 6d Kody Clemens 0 of 6d Hunter Goodman 0 of 5d Freddie Freeman 0 of 5d Colson Montgomery 0 of 5d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.7%

B 19.8%

C+ 16.7%

C 13.7%

D 8.8%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-18

You saw the full board yesterday

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.