11
HRs allowed
13.9%
HR rate (pool)
18.1%
Overall HR/FB
4.07
FIP
4.0
xFIP
+0.06
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
81
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 81th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.5 EV · 391 ft
max EV allowed 112.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Sean Manaea.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
36.9%
81.9
27.7°
5
-1.0
Sweeper Breaking
30.5%
74.8
16.5°
3
+2.3
Sinker Hard
21.2%
83.2
8.7°
1
-0.1
Cutter Hard
7.7%
80.0
27.1°
3
+2.4
Changeup Offspeed
3.7%
84.3
12.3°
1
+2.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups79
HRs allowed (pool)11
Pool HR rate13.9%
Pool HR/game day1.1
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB18.1% 81
HR/9—
FIP4.07 50
xFIP4.0
FIP − xFIP+0.06 50
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-07
Fastball
Hard · 36.9% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle27.7°
HRs allowed5
Pitches631
Sweeper
Breaking · 30.5% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against74.8 mph
Avg launch angle16.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches521
Sinker
Hard · 21.2% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle8.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches362
Cutter
Hard · 7.7% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.0 mph
Avg launch angle27.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches131
Changeup
Offspeed · 3.7% usage
+2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle12.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches63
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Sean Manaea.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
11 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.5 EV · 391 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 10 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-04
9
0
108.4
2026-07-29
7
1
106.1
2026-07-24
9
1
107.3
2026-07-18
8
2
109.4
2026-07-09
7
1
105.4
2026-07-04
8
3
112.2
2026-06-29
7
0
108.3
2026-06-24
8
2
108.2
2026-06-18
8
0
104.6
2026-06-13
8
1
106.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Sean Manaea isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Sean Manaea isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
39
6
15%
8
3
38%
16
2
12%
9
0
0%
7
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.