10
HRs allowed
8.9%
HR rate (pool)
7.9%
Overall HR/FB
3.63
FIP
4.56
xFIP
-0.92
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
11
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 11th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.8 EV · 408 ft
max EV allowed 112.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 4 HR ↑
15D · 5 HR ↑
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Rhett Lowder.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
30.2%
86.4
20.5°
2
-0.7
Slider Breaking
26.9%
85.1
7.6°
4
+2.0
Fastball Hard
22.3%
84.1
31.7°
1
-0.3
Changeup Offspeed
20.4%
84.8
12.1°
2
+1.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups112
HRs allowed (pool)10
Pool HR rate8.9%
Pool HR/game day0.77
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB7.9% 11
HR/9—
FIP3.63 33
xFIP4.56
FIP − xFIP-0.92 6
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Sinker
Hard · 30.2% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.4 mph
Avg launch angle20.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches377
Slider
Breaking · 26.9% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.1 mph
Avg launch angle7.6°
HRs allowed4
Pitches336
Fastball
Hard · 22.3% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle31.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches279
Changeup
Offspeed · 20.4% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.8 mph
Avg launch angle12.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches255
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Rhett Lowder.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
10 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.8 EV · 408 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 13 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-30
9
2
110.5
2026-06-24
8
2
109.8
2026-06-19
7
1
109.1
2026-06-13
9
1
111.8
2026-06-07
7
1
109.8
2026-05-07
9
0
103.0
2026-05-02
9
0
106.0
2026-04-26
9
2
107.3
2026-04-20
9
0
112.6
2026-04-15
9
0
103.1
2026-04-09
9
0
112.8
2026-04-04
9
0
107.4
2026-03-29
9
1
110.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Rhett Lowder isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.