TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ MIL

American Family Field is live · 1.24×

MIA @ MIL

American Family Field · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 4 mph in 79°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

3:10p

+9 ↑

4:10p

+11 ↑

5:10p

+13 ↑

6:10p

+14 ↑

7:10p

conditions build late — the 7:10p window peaks +14

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 34 · vs Meyer ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 24 · vs Drohan → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Max Meyer RHP · MIA

leak 39

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Brice Turang +575 C ●●●○○

3 Joey Ortiz — D ●●●○○

FADE Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 3

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers — C ●●●●○

2 Otto Lopez +500 D ●●●○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +330 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 33.9% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Meyer Edge +390 0.269 · 92.5 · 10.8% 33.3% 33.9% F B O C+ 69

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Drohan — 0.219 · 91.8 · 10.2% 28.6% 19.7% F B O C 57

· MIL Brice Turang vs Meyer Edge +575 0.200 · 90.9 · 8.4% 18.2% 19.0% F B O C 54

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Drohan Edge +330 0.242 · 91.9 · 10.2% 0.0% 36.0% F B O C 55

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Meyer Edge +400 0.219 · 92.2 · 10.6% 10.0% 15.1% F B O C 58

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Meyer Edge +475 0.183 · 92.9 · 11.1% 0.0% 14.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Drohan Edge +500 0.168 · 89.4 · 7.8% 22.2% 16.2% F B O D 49

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Meyer — 0.078 · 87.6 · 5.7% 27.3% 8.3% F B O D 39

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Meyer Edge — 0.099 · 85.9 · 4.1% 11.1% 7.6% F B O D 35

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Meyer Edge +575 0.131 · 89.0 · 7.8% 9.1% 8.5% F B O D 44

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Drohan Edge +850 0.122 · 86.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 39

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Meyer +525 0.137 · 90.1 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 44

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Drohan Edge +750 0.128 · 87.4 · 3.5% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 36

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Drohan +750 0.163 · 85.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 43

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Drohan +850 0.095 · 86.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.1% ← leak BRK 34.3% OFF 4.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Stowers L

13.0% 15.9% 3.0% 11.9% C 57 —

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

12.2% 11.8% 8.3% 11.8% C 55 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Otto Lopez R Edge

10.2% 4.2% 2.1% 6.9% D 49 +500

146

Liam Hicks L

3.7% 3.1% 3.9% 3.6% D 43 +750

178

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.3% 2.9% 3.3% 4.4% D 39 +850

193

Javier Sanoja R Edge

0.9% 2.9% 0.0% 1.4% D 36 +750

200

Jakob Marsee L

2.9% 0.0% 8.6% 3.2% D 36 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.1% usage) carries Drohan's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 55.8% FB 33.7% OFF 10.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.8% 14.4% 16.7% 14.8% C+ 69 +390

Jackson Chourio S Edge

15.4% 13.5% 4.2% 13.0% C 58 +400

Brice Turang L Edge

10.1% 9.9% 2.3% 8.7% C 54 +575

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

12.7% 16.8% 5.3% 14.3% C 53 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

131

William Contreras R

6.8% 9.8% 0.0% 8.1% D 44 +525

136

Christian Yelich L Edge

10.4% 4.6% 12.5% 6.9% D 44 +575

183

Joey Ortiz R

5.2% 3.6% 0.0% 3.8% D 39 —

205

Sal Frelick L Edge

4.9% 1.2% 0.0% 2.0% D 35 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Meyer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Hernández Lopez Bauers Turang Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Meyer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jake Bauers +390 · 69

Kyle Stowers — · 57

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 3:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.12× Wind 4 mph in 79°F retractable

↑

8 mph · slight_out

86°F

3:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

86°F

4:10p

+11

↑

8 mph · slight_out

83°F

5:10p

+13

↑

9 mph · out

80°F

6:10p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

7:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 79°F, wind 4 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 57 C — WARM 39 0.219 91.8 10.2% 16.7%vs LHP 396 11.8% 28.6% 19.7% 16

2 Heriberto Hernández 55 C +330 WARM 50 0.242 91.9 10.2% 36.8%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 36.0% 17

3 Otto Lopez 49 D +500 · 92 0.168 89.4 7.8% 9.5%vs LHP 402 8.4% 22.2% 16.2% 27

4 Liam Hicks 43 D +750 COOL 146 0.163 85.4 5.6% 10.0%vs LHP 376 15.2% 0.0% 7.9% 31

5 Xavier Edwards 39 D +850 COOL 178 0.122 86.9 6.3% 25.0%vs LHP 396 5.3% 0.0% 10.3% 28

6 Javier Sanoja 36 D +750 COOL 193 0.128 87.4 3.5% 18.2%vs LHP 385 5.0% 0.0% 9.6% 29

7 Jakob Marsee 36 D +850 COOL 200 0.095 86.8 5.4% 12.5%vs LHP 379 6.5% 0.0% 6.6% 22

vs Max Meyer · RHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 69 C+ +390 WARM 10 0.269 92.5 10.8% 36.0%vs RHP 401 21.6% 33.3% 33.9% 21

2 Jackson Chourio 58 C +400 COOL 38 0.219 92.2 10.6% 19.2%vs RHP 402 17.5% 10.0% 15.1% 29

3 Brice Turang 54 C +575 · 61 0.200 90.9 8.4% 26.9%vs RHP 406 11.7% 18.2% 19.0% 32

4 Garrett Mitchell 53 C +475 · 68 0.183 92.9 11.1% 29.6%vs RHP 415 9.2% 0.0% 14.1% 24

5 William Contreras 44 D +525 COOL 131 0.137 90.1 7.7% 18.2%vs RHP 419 10.2% 0.0% 10.2% 23

6 Christian Yelich 44 D +575 COOL 136 0.131 89.0 7.8% 14.3%vs RHP 402 6.6% 9.1% 8.5% 26

7 Joey Ortiz 39 D — WARM 183 0.078 87.6 5.7% 6.9%vs RHP 407 4.9% 27.3% 8.3% 31

8 Sal Frelick 35 D — COOL 205 0.099 85.9 4.1% 7.1%vs RHP 396 3.8% 11.1% 7.6% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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