TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ TOR

Playable air · 1.07×

CWS @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 3:07p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Colson Montgomery conv 30 · vs Bieber ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 30 · vs Martin → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Shane Bieber RHP · TOR

leak 99

3.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +3.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colson Montgomery +320 B ●●●●●

2 Tristan Peters +750 C ●●●●○

3 Sam Antonacci +750 C ●●●○○

FADE Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 18

0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 George Springer +475 D ●●●●○

3 Brandon Valenzuela — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: 13.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Martin +390 0.225 · 91.5 · 10.0% 33.3% 27.3% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ COOL vs Bieber Edge +320 0.242 · 89.2 · 12.5% 22.2% 37.6% F B O B 70

· CWS Tristan Peters HOT vs Bieber Edge +750 0.179 · 87.2 · 7.5% 33.3% 23.5% F B O C 54

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Bieber Edge +750 0.132 · 87.5 · 8.9% 28.6% 10.6% F B O C 51

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Bieber Edge +290 0.296 · 94.1 · 15.2% 0.0% 32.3% F B O B 72

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Bieber +330 0.242 · 90.6 · 13.3% 11.1% 21.1% F B O C+ 69

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Bieber Edge +425 0.182 · 89.2 · 10.6% 0.0% 15.4% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· TOR George Springer HOT vs Martin +475 0.164 · 88.4 · 7.4% 40.0% 18.1% F B O D 47

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Martin Edge — 0.166 · 88.0 · 7.2% 14.3% 11.1% F B O D 44

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Martin Edge +850 0.113 · 86.7 · 2.9% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 34

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Martin +850 0.134 · 85.2 · 4.1% 11.1% 7.2% F B O D 36

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Bieber +950 0.115 · 87.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 44

· CWS Luisangel Acuna vs Bieber — 0.038 · 89.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 38

· TOR Daulton Varsho COOL vs Martin Edge +525 0.143 · 86.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Martin Edge +950 0.132 · 86.4 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.0% ← leak BRK 27.8% OFF 19.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

21.7% 15.6% 22.2% 19.7% B 72 +290

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.7% 13.2% 12.5% 13.4% B 70 +320

Neutral · 4

Miguel Vargas R

17.2% 11.8% 13.3% 15.0% C+ 69 +330

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

13.6% 5.9% 6.7% 10.1% C 56 +425

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.6% 4.3% 0.0% 5.2% C 54 +750

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.2% 7.3% 0.0% 6.8% C 51 +750

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

134

Chase Meidroth R

4.5% 6.0% 2.3% 4.5% D 44 +950

184

Luisangel Acuna R

5.4% 5.6% 0.0% 4.7% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.0% usage) carries Bieber's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.3% ← leak BRK 27.9% OFF 14.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

16.0% 9.8% 17.6% 14.5% C+ 60 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

110

George Springer R

9.5% 6.1% 8.7% 8.3% D 47 +475

138

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

2.7% 21.1% 13.0% 7.8% D 44 —

180

Daulton Varsho L Edge

7.9% 1.6% 6.7% 5.9% D 39 +525

198

Ernie Clement R

2.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% D 36 +850

210

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.3% 2.9% 1.1% D 34 +850

213

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.0% 2.7% 6.1% 3.3% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.3% usage) carries Martin's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Montgomery Vargas Peters Antonacci Okamoto Springer

Legend

attack side — vs Bieber fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Kazuma Okamoto +390 · 60

Colson Montgomery +320 · 70

Tristan Peters +750 · 54

George Springer +475 · 47

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 3:07p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Bieber · RHP 3.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +3.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 72 B +290 COOL 7 0.296 94.1 15.2% 40.0%vs RHP 409 16.7% 0.0% 32.3% 4

2 Colson Montgomery ✶ 70 B +320 COOL 8 0.242 89.2 12.5% 25.4%vs RHP 398 25.3% 22.2% 37.6% 24

3 Miguel Vargas 69 C+ +330 WARM 11 0.242 90.6 13.3% 15.8%vs RHP 389 21.5% 11.1% 21.1% 26

4 Andrew Benintendi 56 C +425 COOL 48 0.182 89.2 10.6% 17.9%vs RHP 389 14.8% 0.0% 15.4% 14

5 Tristan Peters 54 C +750 HOT 59 0.179 87.2 7.5% 11.8%vs RHP 377 9.0% 33.3% 23.5% 19

6 Sam Antonacci 51 C +750 COOL 86 0.132 87.5 8.9% 13.3%vs RHP 403 11.5% 28.6% 10.6% 20

7 Chase Meidroth 44 D +950 COOL 134 0.115 87.7 7.0% 14.3%vs RHP 376 6.2% 0.0% 11.2% 21

8 Luisangel Acuna 38 D — WARM 184 0.038 89.8 6.8% 8.3%vs RHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 9

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 60 C+ +390 · 29 0.225 91.5 10.0% 30.9%vs RHP 396 20.8% 33.3% 27.3% 23

2 George Springer 47 D +475 HOT 110 0.164 88.4 7.4% 21.6%vs RHP 394 11.2% 40.0% 18.1% 10

3 Brandon Valenzuela 44 D — COOL 138 0.166 88.0 7.2% 20.8%vs RHP 397 12.1% 14.3% 11.1% 9

4 Daulton Varsho 39 D +525 COOL 180 0.143 86.0 6.3% 11.8%vs RHP 386 7.5% 0.0% 8.5% 25

5 Ernie Clement 36 D +850 COOL 198 0.134 85.2 4.1% 7.8%vs RHP 375 8.9% 11.1% 7.2% 33

6 Nathan Lukes 34 D +850 COOL 210 0.113 86.7 2.9% 15.2%vs RHP 378 6.7% 12.5% 8.2% 25

7 Andres Gimenez 33 D +950 COOL 213 0.132 86.4 4.8% 12.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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