TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.12×

STL @ AZ

Chase Field · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 2 mph slight_out 86°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:10p

+2 ↑

2:10p

+2 ↑

3:10p

+3 ↑

4:10p

+4 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +4

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 25 · vs May ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 31 · vs Pfaadt → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 62

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +750 D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +475 D ●●○○○

3 Geraldo Perdomo +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 11

1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jj Wetherholt +625 D ●●●●●

3 Alec Burleson +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: 14.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ vs Pfaadt +400 0.241 · 94.2 · 11.7% 36.4% 25.7% F B O C+ 62

· STL Alec Burleson vs Pfaadt Edge +400 0.194 · 91.7 · 10.6% 10.0% 15.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Pfaadt Edge +625 0.137 · 90.0 · 8.4% 50.0% 10.0% F B O D 43

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs May +750 0.178 · 85.2 · 6.9% 33.3% 16.2% F B O D 42

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs May Edge +475 0.222 · 91.3 · 8.5% 10.0% 13.5% F B O D 47

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs May Edge +850 0.113 · 87.1 · 4.6% 10.0% 6.8% F B O D 30

· STL José Fermín vs Pfaadt — 0.127 · 84.9 · 4.6% 10.0% 6.6% F B O D 34

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs May Edge +390 0.203 · 91.0 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 45

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +950 0.147 · 85.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 41

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs May +850 0.160 · 89.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Pfaadt +700 0.148 · 89.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs May Edge — 0.147 · 87.3 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· STL Masyn Winn vs Pfaadt +1000 0.087 · 88.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.3% ← leak BRK 31.7% OFF 11.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R

15.0% 13.3% 16.1% 14.6% C+ 62 +400

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.8% 12.0% 10.8% 11.7% C 51 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

147

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

11.2% 4.0% 2.5% 8.2% D 43 +625

160

Nathan Church L Edge

9.5% 6.2% 7.1% 7.9% D 41 +950

192

Ivan Herrera R

5.8% 6.4% 8.8% 6.4% D 36 +700

211

José Fermín R

2.3% 2.8% 0.0% 2.1% D 34 —

221

Masyn Winn R

3.5% 2.3% 3.4% 3.1% D 31 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.3% usage) carries Pfaadt's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 66.9% ← leak BRK 26.2% OFF 6.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

111

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.8% 14.1% 5.9% 10.8% D 47 +475

124

Ketel Marte S Edge

15.1% 7.5% 4.2% 10.8% D 45 +390

150

Nolan Arenado R

10.4% 1.3% 3.8% 6.9% D 42 +750

196

Gabriel Moreno R

7.0% 8.5% 10.7% 8.0% D 36 +850

217

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.7% 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% D 32 —

228

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.1% 0.0% 2.9% 3.1% D 30 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.9% usage) carries May's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Wetherholt Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs May fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jordan Walker +400 · 62

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.94× Wind 2 mph slight_out 86°F retractable

↑

2 mph · out

93°F

1:10p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

97°F

2:10p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

95°F

3:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

93°F

4:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

91°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 86°F, wind 2 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 62 C+ +400 WARM 25 0.241 94.2 11.7% 34.0%vs RHP 406 20.2% 36.4% 25.7% 28

2 Alec Burleson 51 C +400 WARM 80 0.194 91.7 10.6% 21.7%vs RHP 407 16.5% 10.0% 15.0% 26

3 Jj Wetherholt 43 D +625 WARM 147 0.137 90.0 8.4% 17.2%vs RHP 387 25.0% 50.0% 10.0% 26

4 Nathan Church 41 D +950 COOL 160 0.147 85.9 8.8% 21.4%vs RHP 388 9.5% 0.0% 11.3% 20

5 Ivan Herrera 36 D +700 COOL 192 0.148 89.2 7.4% 18.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 28

6 José Fermín 34 D — WARM 211 0.127 84.9 4.6% 13.3%vs RHP 384 6.1% 10.0% 6.6% 24

7 Masyn Winn 31 D +1000 WARM 221 0.087 88.0 5.5% 12.1%vs RHP 390 4.4% 0.0% 6.5% 23

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 47 D +475 COOL 111 0.222 91.3 8.5% 20.4%vs RHP 406 14.3% 10.0% 13.5% 20

2 Ketel Marte 45 D +390 COOL 124 0.203 91.0 8.5% 14.7%vs RHP 413 15.2% 0.0% 11.5% 28

3 Nolan Arenado 42 D +750 WARM 150 0.178 85.2 6.9% 18.8%vs RHP 392 12.4% 33.3% 16.2% 19

4 Gabriel Moreno 36 D +850 COOL 196 0.160 89.4 6.9% 16.2%vs RHP 395 7.7% 0.0% 8.4% 27

5 Ildemaro Vargas 32 D — WARM 217 0.147 87.3 4.9% 10.3%vs RHP 399 5.6% 0.0% 7.8% 21

6 Geraldo Perdomo 30 D +850 COOL 228 0.113 87.1 4.6% 8.9%vs RHP 386 6.1% 10.0% 6.8% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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