TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.25×

WSH @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 10:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game James Wood conv 55 · vs Ginn ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 44 · vs Littell → edge: James Wood

ATTACK J.T. Ginn RHP · ATH

leak 90

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 James Wood +235 B ●●●●●

2 Curtis Mead +575 C+ ●●●●●

3 Keibert Ruiz +575 C ●●●○○

FADE Zack Littell RHP · WSH

leak 73

2.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Shea Langeliers +225 B ●●●●○

3 Carlos Cortes +475 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 66.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Ginn Edge +235 0.284 · 95.0 · 12.4% 66.7% 44.3% F B O B 79

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Littell Edge +320 0.232 · 90.1 · 10.4% 50.0% 37.0% F B O C+ 69

· WSH Curtis Mead vs Ginn +575 0.253 · 87.9 · 8.9% 25.0% 37.5% F B O C+ 66

· ATH Shea Langeliers vs Littell +225 0.231 · 91.8 · 12.7% 25.0% 32.5% F B O B 73

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Ginn Edge +575 0.183 · 89.3 · 6.2% 16.7% 17.6% F B O C 52

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Ginn Edge +390 0.228 · 89.9 · 8.2% 0.0% 33.4% F B O C+ 60

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Ginn Edge +500 0.158 · 88.0 · 7.2% 12.5% 12.7% F B O C 50

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Littell Edge +475 0.148 · 89.8 · 9.3% 0.0% 13.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler COOL vs Littell Edge +425 0.108 · 88.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 48

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Ginn +750 0.142 · 88.7 · 6.4% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 46

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Littell Edge — 0.074 · 86.5 · 3.1% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 39

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Ginn Edge — 0.096 · 83.3 · 5.1% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 40

· ATH Jacob Wilson COOL vs Littell +750 0.104 · 84.2 · 4.0% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Ginn Edge — 0.047 · 84.7 · 1.8% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.6% ← leak OFF 19.8% BRK 15.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L Edge

22.9% 13.8% 24.7% 22.4% B 79 +235

Neutral · 4

Curtis Mead R

14.2% 3.4% 10.2% 11.5% C+ 66 +575

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.2% 9.5% 7.3% 9.6% C+ 60 +390

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.3% 3.0% 1.9% 5.5% C 52 +575

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.6% 4.1% 10.8% 7.7% C 50 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

116

Jacob Young R

6.9% 3.8% 4.7% 5.9% D 46 +750

173

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.2% 3.8% 4.9% 3.7% D 40 —

225

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.6% usage) carries Ginn's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.6% ← leak BRK 38.4% OFF 19.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Shea Langeliers R

17.2% 16.1% 4.9% 14.9% B 73 +225

Neutral · 2

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.0% 20.0% 0.0% 10.2% C+ 69 +320

Carlos Cortes L Edge

8.4% 4.7% 9.8% 7.8% C 52 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.5% 9.4% 4.4% 6.5% D 48 +425

158

Jacob Wilson R

2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 41 +750

182

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.0% 2.2% 1.9% 0.8% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.6% usage) carries Littell's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Mead Abrams Ruiz Langeliers Soderstrom

Legend

attack side — vs Ginn fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

James Wood +235 · 79

Tyler Soderstrom +320 · 69

Curtis Mead +575 · 66

Shea Langeliers +225 · 73

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 10:05p · roof unknown

Park 1.25× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.25× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs J.T. Ginn · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 79 B +235 COOL 1 0.284 95.0 12.4% 38.5%vs RHP 412 30.4% 66.7% 44.3% 21

2 Curtis Mead 66 C+ +575 WARM 15 0.253 87.9 8.9% 29.4%vs RHP 400 21.8% 25.0% 37.5% 24

3 Cj Abrams 60 C+ +390 · 27 0.228 89.9 8.2% 28.3%vs RHP 391 25.0% 0.0% 33.4% 27

4 Keibert Ruiz 52 C +575 · 76 0.183 89.3 6.2% 8.7%vs RHP 377 12.8% 16.7% 17.6% 16

5 Daylen Lile 50 C +500 WARM 87 0.158 88.0 7.2% 12.0%vs RHP 402 9.3% 12.5% 12.7% 21

6 Jacob Young 46 D +750 COOL 116 0.142 88.7 6.4% 17.9%vs RHP 391 7.8% 0.0% 11.3% 10

7 Jorbit Vivas 40 D — COOL 173 0.096 83.3 5.1% 10.0%vs RHP 392 3.8% 0.0% 10.2% 16

8 Nasim Nunez 30 D — COOL 225 0.047 84.7 1.8% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 13

vs Zack Littell · RHP 2.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.15 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 73 B +225 WARM 5 0.231 91.8 12.7% 20.7%vs RHP 416 20.7% 25.0% 32.5% 10

2 Tyler Soderstrom 69 C+ +320 WARM 12 0.232 90.1 10.4% 19.1%vs RHP 402 15.9% 50.0% 37.0% 8

3 Carlos Cortes 52 C +475 · 77 0.148 89.8 9.3% 15.0%vs RHP 404 4.5% 0.0% 13.3% 11

4 Lawrence Butler 48 D +425 COOL 99 0.108 88.9 8.1% 23.1%vs RHP 402 3.8% 0.0% 13.0% 15

5 Jacob Wilson 41 D +750 COOL 158 0.104 84.2 4.0% 11.5%vs RHP 375 4.4% 0.0% 9.7% 20

6 Jeff Mcneil 39 D — COOL 182 0.074 86.5 3.1% 7.3%vs RHP 373 4.2% 0.0% 10.5% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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