TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.92×

TB @ BOS

Fenway Park · 4:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 2 mph slight_out 64°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

4:10p

+1 ↑

5:10p

+2 ↑

6:10p

+3 ↑

7:10p

+4 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks +4

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 37 · vs Proxy ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 42 · vs Seymour → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK BOS Bullpen Proxy · BOS

leak 51

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +225 C+ ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios — D ●●●○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●○○○○

FADE Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 32

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +265 C ●●●●●

2 Masataka Yoshida — D ●●●●○

3 Wilyer Abreu +390 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 27.8% · 14D pace 45.5% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Seymour Edge +265 0.246 · 90.6 · 10.8% 60.0% 24.6% F B O C 59

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Proxy +225 0.269 · 93.2 · 13.6% 45.5% 27.8% F B O C+ 66

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· BOS Masataka Yoshida HOT vs Seymour — 0.128 · 88.9 · 4.6% 42.9% 9.5% F B O D 37

· BOS Wilyer Abreu HOT vs Seymour +390 0.169 · 90.1 · 10.1% 30.0% 10.5% F B O D 47

· TB Richie Palacios vs Proxy — 0.098 · 86.1 · 3.8% 25.0% 10.7% F B O D 30

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Seymour — 0.151 · 89.3 · 9.6% 11.1% 11.1% F B O D 43

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Proxy — 0.136 · 88.3 · 4.1% 11.1% 7.9% F B O D 34

· TB Jonathan Aranda HOT vs Proxy +525 0.178 · 91.1 · 10.4% 9.1% 9.9% F B O D 46

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Seymour Edge +700 0.158 · 84.9 · 4.8% 10.0% 8.6% F B O D 35

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Seymour Edge +525 0.161 · 86.0 · 6.3% 10.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Proxy +400 0.164 · 91.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 35

· TB Ben Williamson vs Proxy +950 0.097 · 87.9 · 1.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 25

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Proxy +850 0.079 · 86.0 · 1.6% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 23

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Proxy — 0.067 · 84.0 · — 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 16

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Proxy +950 0.067 · 85.1 · 3.0% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 23

· BOS Carlos Narvaez COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.075 · 91.4 · 7.4% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 38.4% ← leak OFF 31.0% BRK 28.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R Edge

11.8% 19.4% 16.3% 13.7% C 59 +265

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

112

Wilyer Abreu L

12.8% 11.7% 12.9% 12.6% D 47 +390

145

Jarren Duran L

14.6% 10.2% 6.2% 11.4% D 43 —

189

Ceddanne Rafaela R Edge

3.7% 9.5% 5.4% 5.0% D 37 +525

191

Masataka Yoshida L

2.8% 3.2% 0.0% 2.4% D 37 —

203

Caleb Durbin R Edge

3.0% 3.7% 1.6% 2.7% D 35 +700

224

Carlos Narvaez R Edge

7.9% 0.0% 5.9% 6.4% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (38.4% usage) carries Seymour's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Palacios Contreras Abreu Yoshida

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Willson Contreras +265 · 59

Junior Caminero +225 · 66

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.92× Wind 2 mph slight_out 64°F open

↑

14 mph · slight_out

72°F

4:10p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

69°F

5:10p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

68°F

6:10p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

67°F

7:10p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

67°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 64°F, wind 2 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 66 C+ +225 COOL 24 0.269 93.2 13.6% 32.2% 408 29.0% 45.5% 27.8% 20

2 Jonathan Aranda 46 D +525 HOT 148 0.178 91.1 10.4% 15.5% 387 13.2% 9.1% 9.9% 27

3 Yandy Diaz 35 D +400 · 219 0.164 91.1 7.1% 16.9% 383 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 28

4 Cedric Mullins 34 D — WARM 223 0.136 88.3 4.1% 9.9% 391 13.3% 11.1% 7.9% 18

5 Richie Palacios 30 D — WARM 231 0.098 86.1 3.8% 5.9% 396 4.3% 25.0% 10.7% 21

6 Ben Williamson 25 D +950 WARM 236 0.097 87.9 1.9% 10.0% 398 3.0% 0.0% 6.8% 13

7 Nick Fortes 23 D +850 COOL 238 0.079 86.0 1.6% 3.6% 400 2.0% 0.0% 6.0% 12

8 Taylor Walls 23 D +950 COOL 239 0.067 85.1 3.0% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 15

9 Chandler Simpson 16 D — COOL 241 0.067 84.0 — 2.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 30

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 59 C +265 WARM 34 0.246 90.6 10.8% 25.0%vs LHP 407 21.8% 60.0% 24.6% 13

2 Wilyer Abreu 47 D +390 HOT 112 0.169 90.1 10.1% 11.5%vs LHP 400 14.1% 30.0% 10.5% 23

3 Jarren Duran 43 D — WARM 145 0.151 89.3 9.6% 7.7%vs LHP 398 13.5% 11.1% 11.1% 16

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 37 D +525 COOL 189 0.161 86.0 6.3% 13.0%vs LHP 372 8.8% 10.0% 8.2% 29

5 Masataka Yoshida 37 D — HOT 191 0.128 88.9 4.6% 6.7% 380 13.2% 42.9% 9.5% 16

6 Caleb Durbin 35 D +700 COOL 203 0.158 84.9 4.8% 17.6%vs LHP 373 9.1% 10.0% 8.6% 27

7 Carlos Narvaez 30 D — COOL 224 0.075 91.4 7.4% 0.0%vs LHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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