TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.14×

NYM @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 4:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 5 mph out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

4:05p

+7 ↑

5:05p

+10 ↑

6:05p

+12 ↑

7:05p

+11 ↑

8:05p

conditions build late — the 7:05p window peaks +12

Best of game Juan Soto conv 31 · vs Luzardo ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 31 · vs Manaea → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 95

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Brett Baty — D ●●○○○

3 Francisco Alvarez +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 92

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +192 B ●●●●●

2 Alec Bohm +400 D ●○○○○

3 Trea Turner +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 19.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Manaea +192 0.307 · 93.5 · 12.4% 20.0% 42.7% F B O B 75

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs Luzardo +320 0.265 · 92.6 · 9.2% 30.0% 32.0% F B O C+ 65

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Manaea +320 0.235 · 90.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 17.0% F B O C+ 60

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Manaea +500 0.183 · 89.6 · 8.6% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Luzardo — 0.100 · 89.6 · 7.0% 20.0% 11.2% F B O D 41

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Luzardo Edge +425 0.187 · 90.1 · 9.7% 0.0% 25.0% F B O D 48

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Luzardo +750 0.164 · — · 6.6% 0.0% 22.9% F B O D 41

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Luzardo Edge +400 0.146 · 91.9 · 7.0% 12.5% 9.5% F B O D 45

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Luzardo +750 0.134 · 89.4 · 6.6% 10.0% 11.5% F B O D 43

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Manaea Edge +400 0.136 · 90.1 · 6.5% 10.0% 9.4% F B O D 46

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Manaea Edge +400 0.123 · 88.6 · 7.0% 11.1% 7.7% F B O D 45

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Manaea Edge +425 0.135 · — · 6.3% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 40

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Manaea +525 0.142 · 89.1 · 7.4% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 46

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Luzardo Edge +500 0.120 · 90.1 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 40

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Luzardo +525 0.128 · 86.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 41

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Manaea — 0.094 · 86.7 · 2.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.0% ← leak BRK 37.0% OFF 20.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L

18.7% 11.9% 5.3% 14.6% C+ 65 +320

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

16.0% 15.8% 17.6% 16.1% D 48 +425

127

Francisco Lindor S Edge

8.3% 5.0% 9.1% 8.0% D 45 +400

143

Carson Benge L

7.2% 8.6% 7.0% 7.5% D 43 +750

157

A.J. Ewing L

10.3% 7.7% 0.0% 7.6% D 41 +750

161

Brett Baty L

8.5% 14.0% 2.6% 8.5% D 41 —

162

Marcus Semien

11.4% 2.6% 9.5% 8.2% D 41 +525

174

Bo Bichette R Edge

4.8% 12.3% 0.0% 6.8% D 40 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.0% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.4% ← leak BRK 31.7% OFF 4.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L

19.4% 16.9% 28.0% 19.6% B 75 +192

Neutral · 2

Bryce Harper L

8.8% 16.5% 8.9% 11.4% C+ 60 +320

Brandon Marsh L

8.4% 15.1% 2.8% 9.5% C 53 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

117

Bryson Stott L

7.5% 5.3% 6.2% 6.7% D 46 +525

118

Alec Bohm R Edge

4.8% 5.5% 6.7% 5.2% D 46 +400

125

Trea Turner R Edge

8.4% 4.3% 0.0% 6.3% D 45 +400

169

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

4.8% 4.3% 8.3% 4.9% D 40 +425

204

Justin Crawford L

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.4% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Baty Schwarber

Legend

attack side — vs Luzardo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber +192 · 75

Juan Soto +320 · 65

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 4:05p · roof open

Park 1.14× Wind 5 mph out 72°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

75°F

4:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

76°F

5:05p

+10

↑

7 mph · out

75°F

6:05p

+12

↑

7 mph · out

74°F

7:05p · peak

+11

↑

8 mph · out

73°F

8:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.14× 72°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 65 C+ +320 COOL 20 0.265 92.6 9.2% 13.3%vs LHP 401 20.7% 30.0% 32.0% 26

2 Francisco Alvarez 48 D +425 COOL 96 0.187 90.1 9.7% 25.0%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 18

3 Francisco Lindor 45 D +400 · 127 0.146 91.9 7.0% 10.0%vs LHP 395 9.1% 12.5% 9.5% 32

4 Carson Benge 43 D +750 COOL 143 0.134 89.4 6.6% 21.4%vs LHP 399 9.6% 10.0% 11.5% 29

5 A.J. Ewing 41 D +750 WARM 157 0.164 — 6.6% 18.2%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 22.9% 27

6 Brett Baty 41 D — HOT 161 0.100 89.6 7.0% 0.0%vs LHP 401 5.5% 20.0% 11.2% 29

7 Marcus Semien 41 D +525 · 162 0.128 86.2 6.7% 5.6%vs LHP 391 10.3% 0.0% 9.6% 0

8 Bo Bichette 40 D +500 COOL 174 0.120 90.1 6.3% 20.0%vs LHP 385 9.7% 0.0% 9.8% 30

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 75 B +192 COOL 3 0.307 93.5 12.4% 44.4%vs LHP 404 25.6% 20.0% 42.7% 22

2 Bryce Harper 60 C+ +320 COOL 31 0.235 90.1 9.5% 10.7%vs LHP 400 19.4% 0.0% 17.0% 24

3 Brandon Marsh 53 C +500 COOL 67 0.183 89.6 8.6% 16.7%vs LHP 392 13.5% 0.0% 14.4% 24

4 Bryson Stott 46 D +525 · 117 0.142 89.1 7.4% 9.1%vs LHP 393 8.0% 0.0% 10.0% 30

5 Alec Bohm 46 D +400 WARM 118 0.136 90.1 6.5% 12.9%vs LHP 394 11.1% 10.0% 9.4% 30

6 Trea Turner 45 D +400 COOL 125 0.123 88.6 7.0% 3.2%vs LHP 392 12.1% 11.1% 7.7% 30

7 J.T. Realmuto 40 D +425 · 169 0.135 — 6.3% 5.3%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 21

8 Justin Crawford 35 D — COOL 204 0.094 86.7 2.7% 4.4% 382 2.9% 0.0% 8.5% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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