TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.70×

PIT @ CLE

Progressive Field · 7:10p · 26 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 11 mph in 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

7:10p

+6 ↑

8:10p

+10 ↑

9:10p

+12 ↑

10:10p

+12 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +12

Best of game Bryan Reynolds conv 22 · vs Allen ⟷ Bryan Reynolds conv 21 · vs Williams → edge: Rhys Hoskins

ATTACK Logan Allen LHP

leak 92

2.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.79 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryan Reynolds +425 C ●●●○○

2 Marcell Ozuna +500 D ●●●○○

3 Ryan O'Hearn +625 C ●●●○○

FADE Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 86

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryan Reynolds +425 C ●●●○○

2 Marcell Ozuna +500 D ●●●○○

3 Ryan O'Hearn +625 C ●●●○○

FADE Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 13

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins +390 D ●●●●●

2 Brayan Rocchio +575 D ●●●○○

3 Chase Delauter +390 D ●●○○○

FADE PIT Bullpen Proxy

leak 49

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins +390 C ●●●●●

2 Brayan Rocchio +575 D ●●●○○

3 Chase Delauter +390 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rhys Hoskins: Match 13.7% · 14D pace 50.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Rhys Hoskins ✶ HOT vs Proxy +390 0.187 · 88.5 · 11.1% 50.0% 13.7% F B O C 52

· — Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Allen Edge +425 0.193 · 90.9 · 10.0% 20.0% 23.6% F B O C 54

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Williams Edge +425 0.193 · 90.9 · 10.7% 20.0% 22.1% F B O C 53

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn HOT vs Williams Edge +625 0.194 · 89.7 · 9.6% 10.0% 23.4% F B O C 51

· — Ryan O'Hearn HOT vs Allen +625 0.194 · 89.7 · 8.9% 10.0% 23.0% F B O C 52

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Williams Edge +320 0.236 · 90.9 · 11.9% 10.0% 17.2% F B O C 57

· — Brandon Lowe vs Allen +320 0.236 · 90.9 · 11.1% 10.0% 16.4% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 19 long shots

· CLE Rhys Hoskins ✶ HOT vs Jones +390 0.187 · 88.5 · 9.2% 50.0% 14.3% F B O D 49

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Jones Edge +575 0.136 · 86.5 · 4.7% 25.0% 16.7% F B O D 38

· PIT Marcell Ozuna HOT vs Williams +500 0.124 · 89.7 · 10.0% 25.0% 13.0% F B O D 44

· — Marcell Ozuna HOT vs Allen Edge +500 0.124 · 89.7 · 9.3% 25.0% 11.4% F B O D 44

· — Brayan Rocchio vs Proxy +575 0.136 · 86.5 · 2.9% 25.0% 11.3% F B O D 36

· CLE Chase Delauter HOT vs Jones Edge +390 0.189 · 90.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 30.1% F B O D 45

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Williams Edge +950 0.076 · 84.6 · 4.3% 11.1% 8.1% F B O D 30

· — Chase Delauter HOT vs Proxy +390 0.189 · 90.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 19.2% F B O D 44

· — Jake Mangum HOT vs Allen Edge +950 0.076 · 84.6 · 4.0% 11.1% 6.3% F B O D 31

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Jones Edge +500 0.173 · 88.1 · 5.7% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 41

· CLE Kyle Manzardo COOL vs Jones Edge +400 0.149 · 89.1 · 9.0% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 43

· CLE Daniel Schneemann vs Jones Edge — 0.129 · 88.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 39

· — Travis Bazzana COOL vs Proxy +500 0.173 · 88.1 · 4.3% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 39

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Williams +950 0.084 · 85.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 31

· — Kyle Manzardo COOL vs Proxy +400 0.149 · 89.1 · 10.8% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 45

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.055 · 83.1 · 1.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 23

· — Daniel Schneemann vs Proxy — 0.129 · 88.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 39

· — Nick Gonzales COOL vs Allen Edge +950 0.084 · 85.8 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 32

· — Steven Kwan COOL vs Proxy — 0.055 · 83.1 · 0.4% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.0% BRK 49.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.8% 7.1% 12.7% C 57 +320

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

9.6% 14.5% 10.0% C 53 +425

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

9.8% 7.6% 8.7% C 51 +625

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

132

Marcell Ozuna R

8.7% 11.5% 8.6% D 44 +500

220

Nick Gonzales R

1.7% 4.8% 2.5% D 31 +950

226

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.3% 0.0% 1.5% D 30 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Williams's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.5% ← leak BRK 42.0% OFF 15.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Rhys Hoskins R

8.2% 15.2% 16.7% 10.5% D 49 +390

120

Chase Delauter L Edge

10.2% 6.3% 2.0% 7.7% D 45 +390

141

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

12.0% 10.9% 8.1% 10.9% D 43 +400

159

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.9% 4.3% 0.0% 4.8% D 41 +500

177

Daniel Schneemann L Edge

12.4% 6.1% 0.0% 8.4% D 39 —

185

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.7% 3.9% 1.4% 3.2% D 38 +575

235

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.5% usage) carries Jones's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 73.8% ← leak BRK 17.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Brandon Lowe L

16.8% 7.1% 12.7% C 58 +320

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

9.6% 14.5% 10.0% C 54 +425

Ryan O'Hearn L

9.8% 7.6% 8.7% C 52 +625

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

130

Marcell Ozuna R Edge

8.7% 11.5% 8.6% D 44 +500

218

Nick Gonzales R Edge

1.7% 4.8% 2.5% D 32 +950

222

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.3% 0.0% 1.5% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (73.8% usage) carries Allen's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for PIT Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Reynolds O'Hearn Ozuna Hoskins Delauter Rocchio Lowe Reynolds O'Hearn Ozuna Hoskins Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Allen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Bryan Reynolds +425 · 54

Bryan Reynolds +425 · 53

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 11 mph in 75°F open

↑

14 mph · slight_out

78°F

7:10p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

77°F

8:10p

+10

↑

12 mph · out

75°F

9:10p

+12

↑

12 mph · out

72°F

10:10p · peak

+12

↑

12 mph · out

70°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.70× 75°F, wind 11 mph S (in) — modifier: -3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 57 C +320 · 41 0.236 90.9 11.9% 24.6%vs RHP 392 16.5% 10.0% 17.2% 24

2 Bryan Reynolds 53 C +425 COOL 64 0.193 90.9 10.7% 18.6%vs RHP 409 14.1% 20.0% 22.1% 21

3 Ryan O'Hearn 51 C +625 HOT 81 0.194 89.7 9.6% 22.6%vs RHP 384 14.9% 10.0% 23.4% 22

4 Marcell Ozuna 44 D +500 HOT 132 0.124 89.7 10.0% 14.3%vs RHP 404 9.7% 25.0% 13.0% 7

5 Nick Gonzales 31 D +950 COOL 220 0.084 85.8 5.4% 8.8%vs RHP 399 4.5% 0.0% 9.6% 24

6 Jake Mangum 30 D +950 HOT 226 0.076 84.6 4.3% 11.1%vs RHP 408 3.8% 11.1% 8.1% 24

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins ✶ 49 D +390 HOT 88 0.187 88.5 9.2% 23.8%vs RHP 383 13.0% 50.0% 14.3% 7

2 Chase Delauter 45 D +390 HOT 120 0.189 90.9 7.1% 25.6%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 30.1% 26

3 Kyle Manzardo 43 D +400 COOL 141 0.149 89.1 9.0% 20.8%vs RHP 389 10.5% 0.0% 13.3% 20

4 Travis Bazzana 41 D +500 COOL 159 0.173 88.1 5.7% 18.9%vs RHP 395 9.6% 0.0% 15.1% 22

5 Daniel Schneemann 39 D — · 177 0.129 88.0 7.8% 11.9%vs RHP 398 6.7% 0.0% 10.4% 14

6 Brayan Rocchio 38 D +575 WARM 185 0.136 86.5 4.7% 14.0%vs RHP 386 7.9% 25.0% 16.7% 27

7 Steven Kwan 23 D — COOL 235 0.055 83.1 1.7% 2.0%vs RHP 381 1.2% 0.0% 8.8% 20

vs Logan Allen · LHP 2.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.79 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 58 C +320 · 36 0.236 90.9 11.1% 17.4%vs LHP 392 16.5% 10.0% 16.4% 24

2 Bryan Reynolds 54 C +425 COOL 58 0.193 90.9 10.0% 27.3%vs LHP 409 14.1% 20.0% 23.6% 21

3 Ryan O'Hearn 52 C +625 HOT 73 0.194 89.7 8.9% 18.2%vs LHP 384 14.9% 10.0% 23.0% 22

4 Marcell Ozuna 44 D +500 HOT 130 0.124 89.7 9.3% 23.5%vs LHP 404 9.7% 25.0% 11.4% 7

5 Nick Gonzales 32 D +950 COOL 218 0.084 85.8 5.1% 5.3%vs LHP 399 4.5% 0.0% 7.1% 24

6 Jake Mangum 31 D +950 HOT 222 0.076 84.6 4.0% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.8% 11.1% 6.3% 24

vs PIT Bullpen Proxy 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins ✶ 52 C +390 HOT 95 0.187 88.5 11.1% 13.4% 383 13.0% 50.0% 13.7% 7

2 Kyle Manzardo 45 D +400 COOL 156 0.149 89.1 10.8% 15.1% 389 10.5% 0.0% 9.0% 20

3 Chase Delauter 44 D +390 HOT 166 0.189 90.9 6.6% 15.3% 393 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 26

4 Travis Bazzana 39 D +500 COOL 201 0.173 88.1 4.3% 12.2% 395 9.6% 0.0% 10.0% 22

5 Daniel Schneemann 39 D — · 202 0.129 88.0 8.0% 11.5% 398 6.7% 0.0% 7.5% 14

6 Brayan Rocchio 36 D +575 WARM 215 0.136 86.5 2.9% 9.7% 386 7.9% 25.0% 11.3% 27

7 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 240 0.055 83.1 0.4% 1.2% 381 1.2% 0.0% 6.2% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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