TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.20×

LAD @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 8:08p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.20× Wind 6 mph slight_out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

8:08p

+7 ↑

9:08p

+7 ↑

10:08p

+6 ↑

11:08p

+4 ↑

12:08a

best window is early — 8:08p at +7

Best of game Ben Rice conv 42 · vs Sheehan ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 42 · vs Weathers → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Emmet Sheehan RHP · LAD

leak 94

1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +265 B ●●●●●

2 Paul Goldschmidt +400 C+ ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells — D ●●●●○

FADE Ryan Weathers LHP · NYY

leak 83

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +225 B ●●●●●

2 Max Muncy +390 C+ ●●○○○

3 Andy Pages +390 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ HOT vs Sheehan Edge +265 0.321 · 92.1 · 12.0% 40.0% 43.4% F B O B 78

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Weathers +225 0.255 · 93.6 · 12.9% 44.4% 38.8% F B O B 73

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Sheehan +400 0.229 · 86.5 · 10.5% 16.7% 33.4% F B O C+ 63

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Weathers +390 0.228 · 90.1 · 11.5% 10.0% 20.7% F B O C+ 63

· LAD Andy Pages vs Weathers Edge +390 0.196 · 89.1 · 9.1% 11.1% 18.2% F B O C 56

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Sheehan Edge +350 0.181 · 91.1 · 10.1% 11.1% 15.2% F B O C 55

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Weathers +425 0.194 · 90.5 · 10.1% 11.1% 14.9% F B O C 57

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Sheehan Edge +475 0.163 · 90.9 · 10.2% 0.0% 25.8% F B O C 54

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Weathers +425 0.219 · 89.1 · 10.6% 0.0% 16.2% F B O C 55

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Weathers Edge +500 0.175 · 90.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 13.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells vs Sheehan Edge — 0.105 · 89.2 · 7.9% 28.6% 17.9% F B O D 49

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Sheehan +750 0.142 · 83.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 19.3% F B O D 43

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Weathers Edge +475 0.165 · 90.0 · 10.0% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 48

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.094 · 88.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 42

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Sheehan Edge +390 0.162 · 88.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 49

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Weathers +575 0.127 · 89.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.0% ← leak BRK 31.4% OFF 23.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Shohei Ohtani L

21.8% 12.2% 13.3% 17.5% B 73 +225

Neutral · 5

Max Muncy L

18.3% 13.7% 7.1% 14.4% C+ 63 +390

Freddie Freeman L

10.5% 10.0% 10.2% 10.3% C 57 +425

Andy Pages R Edge

8.3% 9.0% 6.9% 8.4% C 56 +390

Dalton Rushing L

11.7% 18.4% 3.1% 11.5% C 55 +425

Mookie Betts R Edge

10.5% 3.8% 6.7% 8.3% C 51 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

10.8% 14.7% 9.1% 11.4% D 48 +475

137

Kyle Tucker L

7.8% 3.9% 1.7% 5.7% D 44 +575

153

Alex Freeland S Edge

6.0% 10.3% 3.8% 6.5% D 42 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.0% usage) carries Weathers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.8% ← leak BRK 41.0% OFF 16.1% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.8% 10.4% 12.8% 15.4% B 78 +265

Neutral · 3

Paul Goldschmidt R

15.2% 5.8% 10.7% 11.9% C+ 63 +400

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.7% 11.4% 6.1% 10.8% C 55 +350

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.3% 5.6% 20.0% 12.2% C 54 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Austin Wells L Edge

9.2% 6.9% 0.0% 7.3% D 49 —

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.3% 12.3% 9.1% 6.3% D 49 +390

139

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 43 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.8% usage) carries Sheehan's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Freeman Pages Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Sheehan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ben Rice +265 · 78

Shohei Ohtani +225 · 73

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 8:08p · roof open

Park 1.20× Wind 6 mph slight_out 72°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

8:08p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

68°F

9:08p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

69°F

10:08p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

69°F

11:08p

↑

10 mph · cross

69°F

12:08a

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 72°F, wind 6 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Weathers · LHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 73 B +225 WARM 4 0.255 93.6 12.9% 33.3%vs LHP 405 20.7% 44.4% 38.8% 19

2 Max Muncy 63 C+ +390 COOL 23 0.228 90.1 11.5% 30.0%vs LHP 409 18.4% 10.0% 20.7% 16

3 Freddie Freeman 57 C +425 COOL 42 0.194 90.5 10.1% 15.4%vs LHP 398 14.0% 11.1% 14.9% 27

4 Andy Pages 56 C +390 · 46 0.196 89.1 9.1% 16.7%vs LHP 391 14.9% 11.1% 18.2% 19

5 Dalton Rushing 55 C +425 COOL 53 0.219 89.1 10.6% 12.5%vs LHP 396 6.2% 0.0% 16.2% 13

6 Mookie Betts 51 C +500 · 84 0.175 90.5 8.9% 6.7%vs LHP 385 10.9% 0.0% 13.2% 24

7 Teoscar Hernandez 48 D +475 COOL 97 0.165 90.0 10.0% 15.4%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 16

8 Kyle Tucker 44 D +575 WARM 137 0.127 89.0 7.6% 4.5%vs LHP 399 5.5% 0.0% 8.5% 23

9 Alex Freeland 42 D — COOL 153 0.094 88.7 7.2% 12.5%vs LHP 373 2.8% 0.0% 13.6% 7

vs Emmet Sheehan · RHP 1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 78 B +265 HOT 2 0.321 92.1 12.0% 36.7%vs RHP 389 27.3% 40.0% 43.4% 25

2 Paul Goldschmidt 63 C+ +400 COOL 22 0.229 86.5 10.5% 25.0%vs RHP 391 18.2% 16.7% 33.4% 12

3 Trent Grisham 55 C +350 WARM 52 0.181 91.1 10.1% 16.0%vs RHP 389 10.0% 11.1% 15.2% 24

4 Ryan Mcmahon 54 C +475 WARM 56 0.163 90.9 10.2% 25.0%vs RHP 384 50.0% 0.0% 25.8% 8

5 Austin Wells 49 D — WARM 91 0.105 89.2 7.9% 12.9%vs RHP 378 9.5% 28.6% 17.9% 15

6 Cody Bellinger 49 D +390 COOL 94 0.162 88.9 7.8% 10.6%vs RHP 379 10.1% 0.0% 12.6% 28

7 Jose Caballero 43 D +750 WARM 139 0.142 83.8 6.0% 18.8%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.