TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ LAA

Neutral air · 0.99×

DET @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 10:07p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 3 mph in 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

7:07p

-8 ↑

8:07p

-7 ↑

9:07p

-6 ↑

10:07p

-5 ↑

11:07p

conditions build late — the 11:07p window peaks -5

Best of game Josh Lowe conv 24 · vs Skubal ⟷ Colt Keith conv 24 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Spencer Torkelson

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 77

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Josh Lowe — D ●●●●○

2 Mike Trout +425 C ●●●○○

3 Jo Adell +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 18

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colt Keith +475 D ●●●●○

2 Spencer Torkelson +330 C ●●●○○

3 Riley Greene +245 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Spencer Torkelson: 15.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Spencer Torkelson ✶ COOL vs Rodriguez +330 0.198 · 89.9 · 11.0% 22.2% 20.8% F B O C 56

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +245 0.176 · 91.4 · 10.8% 22.2% 18.8% F B O C 53

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Skubal Edge +425 0.230 · 90.7 · 12.2% 16.7% 23.1% F B O C 56

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Skubal Edge +390 0.217 · 89.5 · 9.8% 11.1% 14.3% F B O C 51

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Rodriguez +400 0.268 · 89.7 · 9.9% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C 58

· DET Kerry Carpenter COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +305 0.225 · 90.6 · 9.7% 0.0% 15.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· DET Colt Keith HOT vs Rodriguez Edge +475 0.146 · 89.0 · 8.2% 33.3% 15.2% F B O D 46

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Skubal — 0.152 · 88.9 · 8.4% 25.0% 23.2% F B O D 44

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Skubal Edge +500 0.147 · 89.7 · 7.9% 11.1% 18.5% F B O D 42

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Skubal Edge +850 0.140 · 89.5 · 6.8% 16.7% 7.9% F B O D 38

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Skubal — 0.119 · 87.3 · 4.0% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 32

· LAA Jorge Soler COOL vs Skubal Edge +425 0.194 · 88.2 · 9.3% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 45

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Skubal Edge +850 0.136 · 87.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 37

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +425 0.133 · 88.0 · 8.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 40

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Rodriguez Edge +850 0.097 · 84.6 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· DET Matt Vierling COOL vs Rodriguez +850 0.130 · 87.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 39

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe HOT vs Skubal Edge +575 0.097 · 87.2 · 9.0% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.9% ← leak BRK 24.6% OFF 21.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dillon Dingler R

13.0% 11.7% 6.1% 11.8% C 58 +400

Spencer Torkelson R

16.7% 9.1% 21.1% 15.1% C 56 +330

Riley Greene L Edge

16.2% 14.3% 6.2% 13.8% C 53 +245

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

10.6% 11.4% 8.7% 10.5% C 53 +305

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

114

Colt Keith L Edge

7.7% 18.8% 4.4% 8.7% D 46 +475

170

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.5% 7.9% 2.1% 8.0% D 40 +425

181

Matt Vierling R

7.3% 2.9% 0.0% 4.9% D 39 +850

208

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 2.7% D 34 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.9% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.5% ← leak OFF 24.9% BRK 18.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout R Edge

18.6% 10.5% 29.4% 19.7% C 56 +425

Zach Neto R Edge

16.8% 3.6% 9.3% 12.9% C 51 +390

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

123

Jorge Soler R Edge

15.3% 0.0% 10.9% 12.5% D 45 +425

129

Josh Lowe L

13.0% 8.3% 2.6% 9.1% D 44 —

151

Jo Adell R Edge

8.8% 5.9% 7.1% 8.0% D 42 +500

187

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

7.9% 0.0% 6.7% 6.2% D 38 +850

190

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.6% 12.5% 7.8% 7.7% D 37 +850

212

Logan O'Hoppe R Edge

11.0% 14.3% 9.1% 10.6% D 34 +575

216

Nolan Schanuel L

2.8% 0.0% 1.7% 2.1% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.5% usage) carries Skubal's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Torkelson Greene Keith Trout Lowe Adell

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Spencer Torkelson +330 · 56

Riley Greene +245 · 53

Josh Lowe — · 44

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 7:07p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 3 mph in 70°F open

-8

↑

9 mph · in

77°F

7:07p

-8

↑

8 mph · in

76°F

8:07p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

74°F

9:07p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

73°F

10:07p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

71°F

11:07p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 70°F, wind 3 mph SW (in) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 58 C +400 COOL 37 0.268 89.7 9.9% 28.3%vs RHP 397 19.1% 0.0% 15.9% 15

2 Spencer Torkelson ✶ 56 C +330 COOL 45 0.198 89.9 11.0% 24.1%vs RHP 391 16.0% 22.2% 20.8% 17

3 Riley Greene 53 C +245 COOL 65 0.176 91.4 10.8% 16.9%vs RHP 399 11.6% 22.2% 18.8% 19

4 Kerry Carpenter 53 C +305 COOL 66 0.225 90.6 9.7% 25.5%vs RHP 380 16.2% 0.0% 15.7% 8

5 Colt Keith 46 D +475 HOT 114 0.146 89.0 8.2% 14.8%vs RHP 389 7.6% 33.3% 15.2% 13

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 40 D +425 COOL 170 0.133 88.0 8.1% 7.6%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 26

7 Matt Vierling 39 D +850 COOL 181 0.130 87.6 6.5% 8.3%vs RHP 377 7.7% 0.0% 6.6% 16

8 Zach Mckinstry 34 D +850 WARM 208 0.097 84.6 4.9% 8.3%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 23

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 56 C +425 COOL 44 0.230 90.7 12.2% 25.0%vs LHP 409 18.4% 16.7% 23.1% 14

2 Zach Neto 51 C +390 COOL 82 0.217 89.5 9.8% 20.0%vs LHP 402 18.7% 11.1% 14.3% 22

3 Jorge Soler 45 D +425 COOL 123 0.194 88.2 9.3% 13.3%vs LHP 398 13.5% 0.0% 11.7% 19

4 Josh Lowe 44 D — WARM 129 0.152 88.9 8.4% 13.6% 396 12.1% 25.0% 23.2% 18

5 Jo Adell 42 D +500 COOL 151 0.147 89.7 7.9% 32.0%vs LHP 409 11.0% 11.1% 18.5% 23

6 Vaughn Grissom 38 D +850 · 187 0.140 89.5 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 9.4% 16.7% 7.9% 17

7 Oswald Peraza 37 D +850 COOL 190 0.136 87.3 7.6% 27.8%vs LHP 386 7.2% 0.0% 9.8% 8

8 Logan O'Hoppe 34 D +575 HOT 212 0.097 87.2 9.0% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.8% 0.0% 6.2% 17

9 Nolan Schanuel 32 D — COOL 216 0.119 87.3 4.0% 20.0%vs LHP 372 7.6% 0.0% 12.9% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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