TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.12×

TEX @ ATL

Truist Park · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 4 mph cross 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

4:10p

+1 ↑

5:10p

+2 ↑

6:10p

+3 ↑

7:10p

+3 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 7:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Ezequiel Duran conv 26 · vs Proxy ⟷ Matt Olson conv 28 · vs Gore → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK ATL Bullpen Proxy · STL

leak 56

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ezequiel Duran +700 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Burger +400 C ●●●●○

3 Wyatt Langford +425 C ●●●○○

FADE MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 8

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Drake Baldwin +475 C ●●●○○

3 Austin Riley +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 14.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Gore +305 0.277 · 92.9 · 10.8% 30.0% 26.6% F B O C+ 68

· — Ezequiel Duran vs Proxy +700 0.166 · 88.5 · 6.2% 33.3% 19.3% F B O C 51

· — Jake Burger vs Proxy +400 0.188 · 89.9 · 10.3% 25.0% 23.2% F B O C 58

· — Wyatt Langford vs Proxy +425 0.210 · 89.1 · 8.0% 20.0% 24.6% F B O C 56

· — Joc Pederson COOL vs Proxy +370 0.231 · 91.9 · 11.2% 14.3% 22.4% F B O C+ 62

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Gore +475 0.183 · 91.4 · 11.4% 20.0% 14.7% F B O C 57

· — Brandon Nimmo vs Proxy +390 0.166 · 92.6 · 13.1% 11.1% 11.0% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· — Alejandro Osuna vs Proxy — 0.041 · 87.2 · 0.7% 25.0% 12.6% F B O D 32

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Gore Edge +525 0.141 · 90.3 · 9.2% 20.0% 9.9% F B O D 48

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Gore Edge +750 0.150 · 86.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 40

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Gore Edge +500 0.169 · 87.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 45

· — Josh Jung HOT vs Proxy +575 0.151 · 90.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 45

· — Evan Carter COOL vs Proxy +750 0.139 · 87.7 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 44

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Gore — 0.121 · 87.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.8% ← leak BRK 30.3% OFF 10.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Matt Olson L

17.1% 9.8% 12.5% 14.4% C+ 68 +305

Drake Baldwin L

16.0% 22.2% 0.0% 15.3% C 57 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

101

Austin Riley R Edge

12.2% 12.5% 3.3% 11.2% D 48 +525

122

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.0% 1.1% 3.3% 4.0% D 45 +500

165

Dominic Smith L

6.4% 6.5% 2.9% 5.8% D 41 —

168

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

3.7% 7.0% 3.9% 4.7% D 40 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.8% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for ATL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Riley Pederson Burger Langford Duran Osuna

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Matt Olson +305 · 68

Ezequiel Duran +700 · 51

Jake Burger +400 · 58

Wyatt Langford +425 · 56

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 4 mph cross 72°F open

↑

11 mph · cross

79°F

4:10p

↑

12 mph · cross

76°F

5:10p

↑

10 mph · cross

78°F

6:10p

↑

8 mph · cross

79°F

7:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · cross

80°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 72°F, wind 4 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 68 C+ +305 · 13 0.277 92.9 10.8% 20.4%vs LHP 408 21.9% 30.0% 26.6% 24

2 Drake Baldwin 57 C +475 WARM 43 0.183 91.4 11.4% 43.8%vs LHP 406 18.7% 20.0% 14.7% 29

3 Austin Riley 48 D +525 COOL 101 0.141 90.3 9.2% 14.3%vs LHP 404 8.4% 20.0% 9.9% 21

4 Ozzie Albies 45 D +500 COOL 122 0.169 87.2 5.8% 13.6%vs LHP 383 12.5% 0.0% 11.8% 25

5 Dominic Smith 41 D — COOL 165 0.121 87.8 7.1% 0.0%vs LHP 390 6.8% 0.0% 6.1% 14

6 Mauricio Dubon 40 D +750 COOL 168 0.150 86.3 6.4% 13.3%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 34

vs ATL Bullpen Proxy 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 62 C+ +370 COOL 35 0.231 91.9 11.2% 23.5% 392 19.7% 14.3% 22.4% 16

2 Jake Burger 58 C +400 WARM 54 0.188 89.9 10.3% 19.5% 400 14.9% 25.0% 23.2% 16

3 Wyatt Langford 56 C +425 WARM 69 0.210 89.1 8.0% 15.3% 401 15.8% 20.0% 24.6% 12

4 Brandon Nimmo 56 C +390 · 70 0.166 92.6 13.1% 12.0% 409 9.3% 11.1% 11.0% 21

5 Ezequiel Duran 51 C +700 WARM 103 0.166 88.5 6.2% 14.9% 385 13.0% 33.3% 19.3% 21

6 Josh Jung 45 D +575 HOT 155 0.151 90.5 6.3% 13.4% 386 10.5% 0.0% 10.2% 11

7 Evan Carter 44 D +750 COOL 167 0.139 87.7 6.7% 10.1% 377 9.1% 0.0% 8.9% 13

8 Alejandro Osuna 32 D — WARM 229 0.041 87.2 0.7% 3.3% 364 2.9% 25.0% 12.6% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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