TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.73×

SF @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 8:08p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 1 mph out 58°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+7 ↑

5:08p

+4 ↑

6:08p

+2 ↑

7:08p

+1 ↑

8:08p

-1 ↑

9:08p

best window is early — 5:08p at +7

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 26 · vs Webb ⟷ Casey Schmitt conv 24 · vs Woo → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Logan Webb RHP · SF

leak 46

0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +400 C ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +625 D ●●●●○

3 Cole Young +700 D ●●●○○

FADE Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 37

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Casey Schmitt +475 D ●●●●○

2 Bryce Eldridge +425 D ●●●●○

3 Rafael Devers +400 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: 15.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 28.6% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ COOL vs Webb Edge +400 0.271 · 92.8 · 9.3% 28.6% 23.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Webb +625 0.176 · 91.3 · 6.8% 33.3% 16.9% F B O D 40

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Woo +475 0.216 · 90.0 · 9.4% 30.0% 17.9% F B O D 47

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Woo Edge +425 0.197 · 92.3 · 9.4% 30.0% 16.8% F B O D 45

· SF Rafael Devers vs Woo Edge +400 0.228 · 92.2 · 9.1% 20.0% 21.0% F B O D 47

· SEA Cole Young vs Webb Edge +700 0.155 · 88.6 · 5.3% 22.2% 12.8% F B O D 34

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Woo +525 0.193 · 88.4 · 7.9% 20.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Woo +525 0.193 · 92.5 · 10.7% 10.0% 13.9% F B O D 42

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Webb Edge +400 0.142 · 88.2 · 7.9% 11.1% 7.5% F B O D 35

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Woo Edge — 0.132 · 85.3 · 3.7% 11.1% 6.8% F B O D 26

· SEA Luke Raley COOL vs Webb Edge +525 0.221 · 90.6 · 9.6% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 43

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Webb Edge +950 0.195 · 87.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 36

· SEA J.P. Crawford vs Webb Edge +850 0.141 · — · 6.2% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 27

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Webb Edge +700 0.103 · 87.6 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 26

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Woo Edge — 0.133 · 87.1 · 4.0% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 25

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Woo Edge +950 0.128 · 87.0 · 2.1% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.2% ← leak BRK 28.2% OFF 6.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

104

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.8% 8.6% 9.8% 12.2% D 47 +400

105

Casey Schmitt R

8.9% 17.9% 18.2% 12.3% D 47 +475

126

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.4% 6.7% 17.4% 12.6% D 45 +425

152

Heliot Ramos R

14.9% 16.1% 17.4% 15.7% D 42 +525

176

Willy Adames R

7.7% 9.2% 14.3% 8.6% D 40 +525

232

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.1% 2.5% 0.0% 1.8% D 26 —

234

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.4% 2.1% 0.0% 2.6% D 25 —

237

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 2.1% 0.5% D 20 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.2% usage) carries Woo's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.9% ← leak OFF 24.2% BRK 18.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L Edge

18.4% 7.8% 18.2% 15.5% C 52 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

142

Luke Raley L Edge

19.4% 7.4% 13.9% 16.0% D 43 +525

171

Randy Arozarena R

8.5% 4.9% 10.0% 8.4% D 40 +625

195

Colt Emerson L Edge

6.2% 5.9% 8.0% 6.7% D 36 +950

206

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.5% 11.4% 12.2% 11.1% D 35 +400

207

Cole Young L Edge

5.8% 0.0% 10.0% 5.8% D 34 +700

230

J.P. Crawford L Edge

5.6% 12.0% 8.2% 6.9% D 27 +850

233

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.7% 2.0% 7.6% 4.9% D 26 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.9% usage) carries Webb's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Schmitt Eldridge Adames Canzone Arozarena Young

Legend

attack side — vs Webb fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dominic Canzone +400 · 52

Rafael Devers +400 · 47

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 5:08p · roof retractable

Park 0.82× Wind 1 mph out 58°F retractable

↑

12 mph · out

72°F

5:08p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

70°F

6:08p

↑

9 mph · out

68°F

7:08p

↑

8 mph · out

66°F

8:08p

-1

↑

7 mph · slight_out

63°F

9:08p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.73× 58°F, wind 1 mph NNW (out) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 47 D +400 · 104 0.228 92.2 9.1% 26.7%vs RHP 404 16.9% 20.0% 21.0% 26

2 Casey Schmitt 47 D +475 WARM 105 0.216 90.0 9.4% 20.8%vs RHP 396 17.4% 30.0% 17.9% 30

3 Bryce Eldridge 45 D +425 WARM 126 0.197 92.3 9.4% 20.0%vs RHP 398 22.6% 30.0% 16.8% 21

4 Heliot Ramos 42 D +525 WARM 152 0.193 92.5 10.7% 18.8%vs RHP 404 11.7% 10.0% 13.9% 27

5 Willy Adames 40 D +525 COOL 176 0.193 88.4 7.9% 20.0%vs RHP 390 15.1% 20.0% 9.4% 23

6 Drew Gilbert 26 D — COOL 232 0.132 85.3 3.7% 16.0%vs RHP 398 3.9% 11.1% 6.8% 19

7 Jung Hoo Lee 25 D — COOL 234 0.133 87.1 4.0% 8.7%vs RHP 378 4.6% 0.0% 5.7% 29

8 Luis Arraez 20 D +950 COOL 237 0.128 87.0 2.1% 3.6%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 34

vs Logan Webb · RHP 0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 52 C +400 COOL 72 0.271 92.8 9.3% 30.4%vs RHP 400 17.6% 28.6% 23.7% 21

2 Luke Raley 43 D +525 COOL 142 0.221 90.6 9.6% 33.3%vs RHP 385 14.3% 0.0% 13.0% 17

3 Randy Arozarena 40 D +625 WARM 171 0.176 91.3 6.8% 24.4%vs RHP 393 11.6% 33.3% 16.9% 24

4 Colt Emerson 36 D +950 WARM 195 0.195 87.0 6.2% 33.3%vs RHP 369 13.3% 0.0% 11.5% 11

5 Cal Raleigh 35 D +400 WARM 206 0.142 88.2 7.9% 13.8%vs RHP 390 12.2% 11.1% 7.5% 18

6 Cole Young 34 D +700 WARM 207 0.155 88.6 5.3% 16.4%vs RHP 388 10.8% 22.2% 12.8% 21

7 J.P. Crawford 27 D +850 · 230 0.141 — 6.2% 26.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 21

8 Josh Naylor 26 D +700 · 233 0.103 87.6 5.3% 13.2%vs RHP 390 7.8% 0.0% 6.2% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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