TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ KC

Suppressed air · 0.98×

SD @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 1 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

3:10p

+7 ↑

4:10p

+6 ↑

5:10p

+5 ↑

6:10p

+5 ↑

7:10p

best window is early — 3:10p at +8

Best of game Lane Thomas conv 20 · vs Canning ⟷ Manny Machado conv 23 · vs Dobnak → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Griffin Canning RHP · SD

leak 99

1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lane Thomas — D ●●●○○

2 Jac Caglianone — C ●●○○○

3 Isaac Collins — D ●●○○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP

leak 80

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado — C ●●●●○

2 Ty France — C ●●●○○

3 Xander Bogaerts — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: 10.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Manny Machado ✶ vs Dobnak — 0.210 · 90.1 · 8.6% 20.0% 25.6% F B O C 54

· — Ty France vs Dobnak — 0.213 · 91.5 · 8.9% 20.0% 15.5% F B O C 52

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Canning Edge — 0.198 · 93.0 · 11.2% 10.0% 17.4% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs Canning — 0.151 · 89.2 · 7.4% 30.0% 10.9% F B O D 46

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Canning Edge — 0.121 · 88.4 · 7.2% 11.1% 8.9% F B O D 39

· — Xander Bogaerts vs Dobnak — 0.108 · 88.1 · 6.8% 10.0% 9.6% F B O D 38

· — Gavin Sheets COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.209 · 88.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 16.6% F B O D 47

· KC Carter Jensen COOL vs Canning Edge — 0.181 · 90.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 48

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Canning Edge — 0.119 · 88.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 40

· KC Michael Massey vs Canning Edge — 0.163 · 90.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 43

· — Miguel Andujar COOL vs Dobnak — 0.153 · 88.3 · 5.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 36

· — Jake Cronenworth vs Dobnak Edge — 0.080 · 87.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 34

· — Jackson Merrill COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.131 · 89.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 41

· KC Salvador Perez vs Canning — 0.151 · 89.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.4% ← leak BRK 34.7% OFF 23.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jac Caglianone L Edge

14.6% 16.5% 11.4% 14.6% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.9% 8.6% 8.6% 9.2% D 48 —

119

Lane Thomas R

8.7% 0.0% 5.9% 6.7% D 46 —

144

Michael Massey L Edge

8.7% 4.8% 2.9% 6.8% D 43 —

172

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

8.8% 3.5% 7.7% 7.3% D 40 —

175

Salvador Perez R

13.3% 6.1% 11.4% 10.2% D 40 —

179

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.7% 7.4% 0.0% 5.9% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.4% usage) carries Canning's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.5% ← leak OFF 20.1% BRK 19.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Manny Machado R

13.0% 5.7% 6.7% 10.2% C 54 —

Ty France R

10.7% 8.7% 10.7% 10.4% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

106

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.2% 4.3% 4.8% 7.9% D 47 —

164

Jackson Merrill L Edge

9.9% 6.8% 8.8% 8.9% D 41 —

186

Xander Bogaerts R

8.3% 4.3% 3.2% 6.7% D 38 —

194

Miguel Andujar R

3.7% 3.7% 4.9% 4.1% D 36 —

209

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

6.8% 5.0% 5.3% 6.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.5% usage) carries Dobnak's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Thomas Machado France

Legend

attack side — vs Canning fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Manny Machado — · 54

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 3:10p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 1 mph slight_out 77°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

86°F

3:10p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

86°F

4:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

85°F

5:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

85°F

6:10p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

84°F

7:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 77°F, wind 1 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Griffin Canning · RHP 1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 54 C — COOL 62 0.198 93.0 11.2% 28.6%vs RHP 414 12.8% 10.0% 17.4% 30

2 Carter Jensen 48 D — COOL 98 0.181 90.8 9.0% 18.0%vs RHP 393 15.1% 0.0% 14.2% 13

3 Lane Thomas 46 D — HOT 119 0.151 89.2 7.4% 16.7%vs RHP 411 15.3% 30.0% 10.9% 26

4 Michael Massey 43 D — · 144 0.163 90.5 7.6% 9.8%vs RHP 398 6.6% 0.0% 11.4% 19

5 Vinnie Pasquantino 40 D — WARM 172 0.119 88.6 7.8% 13.3%vs RHP 395 8.8% 0.0% 12.0% 5

6 Salvador Perez 40 D — WARM 175 0.151 89.3 9.0% 15.4%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 25

7 Isaac Collins 39 D — COOL 179 0.121 88.4 7.2% 7.7%vs RHP 395 6.2% 11.1% 8.9% 20

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 54 C — · 57 0.210 90.1 8.6% 28.8%vs RHP 395 19.8% 20.0% 25.6% 21

2 Ty France 52 C — · 79 0.213 91.5 8.9% 28.6%vs RHP 391 17.1% 20.0% 15.5% 20

3 Gavin Sheets 47 D — COOL 106 0.209 88.2 7.4% 34.1%vs RHP 397 11.9% 0.0% 16.6% 23

4 Jackson Merrill 41 D — COOL 164 0.131 89.4 8.1% 14.3%vs RHP 406 11.1% 0.0% 8.3% 27

5 Xander Bogaerts 38 D — WARM 186 0.108 88.1 6.8% 19.1%vs RHP 396 9.0% 10.0% 9.6% 18

6 Miguel Andujar 36 D — COOL 194 0.153 88.3 5.5% 14.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 12

7 Jake Cronenworth 34 D — · 209 0.080 87.6 6.8% 16.7%vs RHP 389 2.0% 0.0% 8.7% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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