TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.16×

MIN @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph slight_out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

1:20p

+12 ↑

2:20p

+9 ↑

3:20p

+5 ↑

4:20p

+5 ↑

5:20p

best window is early — 1:20p at +14

Best of game Seiya Suzuki conv 22 · vs Bradley ⟷ Trevor Larnach conv 23 · vs Boyd → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 86

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Seiya Suzuki +370 C ●●●○○

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 C+ ●●●○○

3 Carson Kelly +575 D ●●●○○

FADE Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 81

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●●○

2 Royce Lewis +330 C ●●●○○

3 Josh Bell +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 10.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 11.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Bradley +370 0.196 · 89.0 · 9.4% 22.2% 21.8% F B O C 54

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Boyd Edge +330 0.175 · 89.1 · 11.3% 22.2% 21.7% F B O C 55

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ COOL vs Bradley Edge +305 0.236 · 90.2 · 10.2% 11.1% 30.1% F B O C+ 60

· MIN Josh Bell vs Boyd Edge +400 0.177 · 89.9 · 10.2% 11.1% 19.5% F B O C 52

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Boyd +525 0.245 · 92.6 · 11.2% 11.1% 17.3% F B O C+ 60

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Bradley Edge +370 0.215 · 89.6 · 11.0% 0.0% 16.5% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Boyd — 0.164 · 87.4 · 8.6% 25.0% 21.5% F B O D 49

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Bradley +575 0.129 · 88.4 · 8.1% 25.0% 13.0% F B O D 44

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Bradley +525 0.145 · 87.9 · 6.4% 22.2% 13.6% F B O D 43

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Boyd Edge +850 0.098 · 84.6 · 5.5% 11.1% 8.0% F B O D 36

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Bradley +475 0.194 · 89.9 · 8.6% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 49

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Boyd Edge +575 0.181 · 88.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 46

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Bradley Edge +425 0.160 · 88.3 · 9.9% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 47

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Boyd Edge — 0.141 · 89.7 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 42

· MIN Austin Martin vs Boyd Edge +750 0.076 · 87.0 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 33

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Bradley +950 0.093 · 86.0 · 2.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.4% ← leak OFF 27.4% BRK 24.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kody Clemens L

10.0% 12.2% 19.6% 12.7% C+ 60 +525

Royce Lewis R Edge

14.7% 9.1% 12.0% 13.2% C 55 +330

Josh Bell S Edge

10.3% 6.3% 15.0% 10.4% C 52 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Trevor Larnach L

8.9% 3.2% 8.5% 8.0% D 49 —

115

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.3% 1.4% 1.2% 4.1% D 46 +575

149

Victor Caratini S Edge

7.0% 7.1% 14.8% 8.2% D 42 —

197

Luke Keaschall R Edge

3.8% 0.0% 3.8% 3.4% D 36 +850

214

Austin Martin R Edge

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 33 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.4% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 71.5% ← leak OFF 19.5% BRK 9.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

9.0% 11.5% 12.5% 10.5% C+ 60 +305

Ian Happ S Edge

15.0% 3.4% 20.0% 13.1% C 56 +370

Seiya Suzuki R

9.8% 5.6% 9.3% 9.3% C 54 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Dansby Swanson R

8.1% 14.3% 4.1% 7.6% D 49 +475

108

Michael Busch L Edge

12.2% 3.2% 6.8% 9.9% D 47 +425

133

Carson Kelly R

8.7% 6.2% 3.8% 7.1% D 44 +575

140

Alex Bregman R

4.4% 6.7% 6.2% 5.1% D 43 +525

227

Nico Hoerner R

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (71.5% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lewis Bell Larnach Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Kelly Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Bradley fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Seiya Suzuki +370 · 54

Royce Lewis +330 · 55

Trevor Larnach — · 49

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph slight_out 80°F open

+14

↑

11 mph · out

85°F

1:20p · peak

+12

↑

11 mph · out

84°F

2:20p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

84°F

3:20p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

83°F

4:20p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

82°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 80°F, wind 6 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 60 C+ +525 COOL 30 0.245 92.6 11.2% 20.0%vs LHP 390 18.5% 11.1% 17.3% 22

2 Royce Lewis 55 C +330 WARM 51 0.175 89.1 11.3% 16.7%vs LHP 396 17.9% 22.2% 21.7% 23

3 Josh Bell 52 C +400 WARM 75 0.177 89.9 10.2% 11.1%vs LHP 404 11.1% 11.1% 19.5% 25

4 Trevor Larnach 49 D — WARM 90 0.164 87.4 8.6% 28.6%vs LHP 399 7.6% 25.0% 21.5% 20

5 Brooks Lee 46 D +575 COOL 115 0.181 88.0 6.2% 15.4%vs LHP 367 14.8% 0.0% 13.1% 23

6 Victor Caratini 42 D — WARM 149 0.141 89.7 8.8% 15.4%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 12

7 Luke Keaschall 36 D +850 WARM 197 0.098 84.6 5.5% 4.8%vs LHP 370 4.9% 11.1% 8.0% 21

8 Austin Martin 33 D +750 WARM 214 0.076 87.0 4.7% 4.3%vs LHP 392 2.0% 0.0% 9.9% 7

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 60 C+ +305 COOL 28 0.236 90.2 10.2% 23.5%vs RHP 393 19.6% 11.1% 30.1% 17

2 Ian Happ 56 C +370 COOL 47 0.215 89.6 11.0% 25.0%vs RHP 402 18.8% 0.0% 16.5% 20

3 Seiya Suzuki 54 C +370 COOL 60 0.196 89.0 9.4% 21.3%vs RHP 408 14.5% 22.2% 21.8% 25

4 Dansby Swanson 49 D +475 COOL 93 0.194 89.9 8.6% 19.6%vs RHP 403 13.7% 0.0% 13.1% 22

5 Michael Busch 47 D +425 COOL 108 0.160 88.3 9.9% 13.9%vs RHP 403 12.2% 0.0% 10.7% 24

6 Carson Kelly 44 D +575 WARM 133 0.129 88.4 8.1% 9.5%vs RHP 416 7.3% 25.0% 13.0% 14

7 Alex Bregman 43 D +525 WARM 140 0.145 87.9 6.4% 16.7%vs RHP 392 8.4% 22.2% 13.6% 28

8 Nico Hoerner 30 D +950 WARM 227 0.093 86.0 2.9% 3.6%vs RHP 383 4.2% 0.0% 6.9% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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