TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.25×

BAL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 4:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 2 mph cross 81°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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3:10p

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4:10p

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5:10p

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6:10p

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7:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Samuel Basallo conv 35 · vs Arrighetti ⟷ Yainer Diaz conv 40 · vs Rogers → edge: Samuel Basallo

ATTACK Spencer Arrighetti RHP · HOU

leak 92

1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Samuel Basallo +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Pete Alonso +320 C+ ●●●●○

3 Coby Mayo +425 C ●●●○○

FADE Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 11

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Yainer Diaz +625 C ●●●●●

2 Yordan Alvarez +265 C+ ●●○○○

3 Christian Walker +370 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Samuel Basallo: Match 32.5% · 14D pace 37.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Rogers Edge +625 0.167 · 87.7 · 6.3% 60.0% 20.6% F B O C 52

· BAL Samuel Basallo ✶ HOT vs Arrighetti Edge +370 0.213 · 91.5 · 10.3% 37.5% 32.5% F B O C+ 66

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Arrighetti +320 0.220 · 93.8 · 10.1% 22.2% 30.1% F B O C+ 66

· BAL Coby Mayo HOT vs Arrighetti +425 0.196 · 92.3 · 9.5% 20.0% 21.4% F B O C 59

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Rogers +265 0.310 · 94.7 · 11.4% 0.0% 29.9% F B O C+ 65

· HOU Christian Walker vs Rogers Edge +370 0.231 · 89.6 · 8.3% 11.1% 18.4% F B O C 59

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Arrighetti Edge +350 0.185 · 89.7 · 7.7% 11.1% 14.5% F B O C 56

· HOU Cam Smith vs Rogers Edge +500 0.157 · 89.5 · 9.2% 12.5% 11.6% F B O C 51

· BAL Adley Rutschman COOL vs Arrighetti Edge +500 0.178 · 89.4 · 7.7% 0.0% 13.2% F B O C 51

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Arrighetti Edge +525 0.145 · 86.8 · 9.6% 0.0% 11.9% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Arrighetti Edge — 0.134 · 87.4 · 6.2% 20.0% 16.4% F B O D 46

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Arrighetti +525 0.103 · 89.4 · 6.8% 22.2% 7.9% F B O D 45

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Rogers Edge +525 0.165 · 85.8 · 6.7% 0.0% 21.5% F B O D 45

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Rogers Edge +400 0.161 · 86.7 · 6.4% 11.1% 8.7% F B O D 47

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.119 · 86.1 · 3.1% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 37

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Rogers Edge +500 0.139 · 87.5 · 5.1% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 45.8% FB 45.8% OFF 7.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Samuel Basallo L Edge

11.9% 15.2% 11.1% 13.3% C+ 66 +370

Pete Alonso R

7.6% 15.7% 15.6% 13.3% C+ 66 +320

Coby Mayo R

11.5% 10.7% 10.5% 11.0% C 59 +425

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

6.6% 8.0% 7.7% 7.5% C 56 +350

Colton Cowser L Edge

15.6% 14.7% 2.8% 11.8% C 52 +525

Adley Rutschman S Edge

2.0% 11.5% 4.0% 7.5% C 51 +500

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

113

Leody Taveras S Edge

9.3% 5.5% 0.0% 5.2% D 46 —

128

Taylor Ward R

0.0% 8.5% 2.9% 5.5% D 45 +525

Read the columns: no single family leads Arrighetti's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.2% ← leak OFF 22.7% BRK 12.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Yordan Alvarez L

18.4% 10.9% 23.8% 18.4% C+ 65 +265

Christian Walker R Edge

8.9% 14.3% 11.5% 10.3% C 59 +370

Yainer Diaz R Edge

9.9% 4.5% 2.0% 6.3% C 52 +625

Cam Smith R Edge

9.6% 20.0% 17.3% 12.3% C 51 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

109

Isaac Paredes R Edge

7.2% 2.6% 4.2% 5.8% D 47 +400

121

Jose Altuve R Edge

7.1% 0.0% 6.6% 6.4% D 45 +525

154

Jeremy Peña R Edge

2.1% 14.3% 3.9% 3.7% D 42 +500

188

Christian Vazquez R Edge

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.2% usage) carries Rogers's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Basallo Alonso Mayo Taveras Ward Alvarez Walker Diaz

Legend

attack side — vs Arrighetti fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Yainer Diaz +625 · 52

Samuel Basallo +370 · 66

Pete Alonso +320 · 66

Coby Mayo +425 · 59

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 3:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.13× Wind 2 mph cross 81°F retractable

↑

8 mph · in

92°F

3:10p · peak

↑

9 mph · cross

93°F

4:10p

↑

10 mph · cross

91°F

5:10p

↑

10 mph · cross

90°F

6:10p

↑

10 mph · cross

88°F

7:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 81°F, wind 2 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Spencer Arrighetti · RHP 1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Samuel Basallo ✶ 66 C+ +370 HOT 16 0.213 91.5 10.3% 29.8%vs RHP 398 17.1% 37.5% 32.5% 20

2 Pete Alonso 66 C+ +320 COOL 17 0.220 93.8 10.1% 29.3%vs RHP 401 19.8% 22.2% 30.1% 20

3 Coby Mayo 59 C +425 HOT 32 0.196 92.3 9.5% 10.7%vs RHP 408 14.9% 20.0% 21.4% 8

4 Gunnar Henderson 56 C +350 WARM 49 0.185 89.7 7.7% 17.2%vs RHP 389 17.0% 11.1% 14.5% 27

5 Colton Cowser 52 C +525 WARM 78 0.145 86.8 9.6% 20.5%vs RHP 417 14.6% 0.0% 11.9% 8

6 Adley Rutschman 51 C +500 COOL 83 0.178 89.4 7.7% 13.2%vs RHP 400 9.3% 0.0% 13.2% 26

7 Leody Taveras 46 D — WARM 113 0.134 87.4 6.2% 11.4%vs RHP 420 3.1% 20.0% 16.4% 12

8 Taylor Ward 45 D +525 · 128 0.103 89.4 6.8% 5.7%vs RHP 387 7.2% 22.2% 7.9% 20

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 65 C+ +265 · 19 0.310 94.7 11.4% 28.6%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 29.9% 27

2 Christian Walker 59 C +370 WARM 33 0.231 89.6 8.3% 25.0%vs LHP 388 19.1% 11.1% 18.4% 22

3 Yainer Diaz 52 C +625 WARM 74 0.167 87.7 6.3% 17.6% 391 10.0% 60.0% 20.6% 19

4 Cam Smith 51 C +500 · 85 0.157 89.5 9.2% 18.8%vs LHP 414 12.4% 12.5% 11.6% 24

5 Isaac Paredes 47 D +400 · 109 0.161 86.7 6.4% 0.0%vs LHP 373 10.8% 11.1% 8.7% 26

6 Jose Altuve 45 D +525 · 121 0.165 85.8 6.7% 22.2%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 21.5% 24

7 Jeremy Peña 42 D +500 WARM 154 0.139 87.5 5.1% 10.0%vs LHP 388 7.3% 0.0% 9.1% 13

8 Christian Vazquez 37 D — COOL 188 0.119 86.1 3.1% 10.0%vs LHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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