15
HRs allowed
11.9%
HR rate (pool)
13.1%
Overall HR/FB
4.25
FIP
4.5
xFIP
-0.25
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
55
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 55th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.7 EV · 398 ft
max EV allowed 116.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Trevor Rogers.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
44.3%
83.1
36.4°
6
-0.3
Changeup Offspeed
22.7%
84.3
7.3°
2
+1.0
Sweeper Breaking
11.9%
73.8
16.9°
1
-0.3
Sinker Hard
10.7%
83.6
11.9°
0
-0.2
Cutter Hard
10.4%
79.4
13.8°
1
-0.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups126
HRs allowed (pool)15
Pool HR rate11.9%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB13.1% 55
HR/9—
FIP4.25 58
xFIP4.5
FIP − xFIP-0.25 33
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 44.3% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle36.4°
HRs allowed6
Pitches666
Changeup
Offspeed · 22.7% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle7.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches341
Sweeper
Breaking · 11.9% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against73.8 mph
Avg launch angle16.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches179
Sinker
Hard · 10.7% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.6 mph
Avg launch angle11.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches160
Cutter
Hard · 10.4% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.4 mph
Avg launch angle13.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches156
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Trevor Rogers.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
15 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.7 EV · 398 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
9
1
110.9
2026-07-03
9
0
108.9
2026-06-26
9
0
105.2
2026-06-20
7
1
114.6
2026-06-14
5
1
109.3
2026-06-09
7
2
114.6
2026-06-04
9
1
105.8
2026-05-29
9
1
110.1
2026-05-24
9
1
110.8
2026-05-18
9
1
116.8
2026-04-25
9
3
108.2
2026-04-19
9
1
106.2
2026-04-14
8
1
99.6
2026-04-01
9
1
104.8
2026-03-26
9
0
109.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Trevor Rogers isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.