24
HRs allowed
12.5%
HR rate (pool)
13.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.05
FIP
4.37
xFIP
-0.32
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
52
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 52th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
19.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed
67.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.7 EV · 402 ft
max EV allowed 116.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 7 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Trevor Rogers.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
45.6%
82.9
36.1°
9
-0.8
Changeup Offspeed
21.5%
84.0
4.6°
3
+1.8
Sweeper Breaking
13.4%
74.2
19.2°
1
-0.9
Sinker Hard
10.1%
83.0
9.4°
1
-0.2
Cutter Hard
9.3%
80.0
11.3°
1
-0.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups192
HRs allowed (pool)24
Pool HR rate12.5%
Pool HR/game day1.04
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB13.0% 52
HR/9—
FIP4.05 50
xFIP4.37
FIP − xFIP-0.32 26
Barrel% allowed19.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed67.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Fastball
Hard · 45.6% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle36.1°
HRs allowed9
Pitches1006
Changeup
Offspeed · 21.5% usage
+1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle4.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches474
Sweeper
Breaking · 13.4% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against74.2 mph
Avg launch angle19.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches295
Sinker
Hard · 10.1% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle9.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches223
Cutter
Hard · 9.3% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.0 mph
Avg launch angle11.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches206
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Trevor Rogers.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
24 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.7 EV · 402 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-27
8
2
104.4
2026-08-21
8
0
109.0
2026-08-16
9
1
109.6
2026-08-10
8
2
106.4
2026-08-05
9
1
105.5
2026-07-29
8
1
111.3
2026-07-24
8
2
109.5
2026-07-18
8
0
109.0
2026-07-09
9
1
110.9
2026-07-03
9
0
108.9
2026-06-26
9
0
105.2
2026-06-20
7
1
114.6
2026-06-14
5
1
109.3
2026-06-09
7
2
114.6
2026-06-04
9
1
105.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Trevor Rogers isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Trevor Rogers isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
108
14
13%
18
2
11%
8
2
25%
8
2
25%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 10. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Trevor Rogers
How many home runs has Trevor Rogers allowed this season?
Trevor Rogers has allowed 24 home runs across 23 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Trevor Rogers?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Trevor Rogers include Willson Contreras (2), Aaron Judge (1), Adolis Garcia (1) and 26 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.