19
HRs allowed
12.4%
HR rate (pool)
11.3%
Overall HR/FB
4.2
FIP
4.74
xFIP
-0.54
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
34
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 34th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
20.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed
65.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.4 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 112.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 5 HR ↑
30D · 5 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Spencer Arrighetti.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Curveball Breaking
34.2%
79.3
4.7°
1
-0.2
Fastball Hard
28.1%
83.2
33.6°
7
+0.3
Sweeper Breaking
11.6%
81.6
27.8°
2
+1.5
Sinker Hard
10.5%
82.4
21.0°
4
+2.1
Changeup Offspeed
8.0%
79.1
-3.8°
0
-1.4
Cutter Hard
6.7%
85.4
22.1°
4
+1.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups153
HRs allowed (pool)19
Pool HR rate12.4%
Pool HR/game day1.06
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB11.3% 34
HR/9—
FIP4.2 56
xFIP4.74
FIP − xFIP-0.54 14
Barrel% allowed20.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed65.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Curveball
Breaking · 34.2% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.3 mph
Avg launch angle4.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches665
Fastball
Hard · 28.1% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle33.6°
HRs allowed7
Pitches546
Sweeper
Breaking · 11.6% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.6 mph
Avg launch angle27.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches225
Sinker
Hard · 10.5% usage
+2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle21.0°
HRs allowed4
Pitches204
Changeup
Offspeed · 8.0% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.1 mph
Avg launch angle-3.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches155
Cutter
Hard · 6.7% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle22.1°
HRs allowed4
Pitches131
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Spencer Arrighetti.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
19 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.4 EV · 396 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-06
9
2
112.5
2026-08-27
9
3
112.3
2026-07-24
9
0
103.6
2026-07-18
8
0
106.1
2026-07-08
8
1
104.8
2026-07-03
9
2
103.4
2026-06-26
9
3
105.5
2026-06-20
8
2
105.9
2026-06-14
5
0
108.3
2026-06-08
7
1
104.2
2026-06-03
9
2
110.1
2026-05-28
9
1
106.1
2026-05-22
9
1
104.7
2026-05-15
9
0
103.0
2026-05-09
9
0
102.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Spencer Arrighetti isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Spencer Arrighetti isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
52
7
13%
9
3
33%
9
3
33%
14
2
14%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 12. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Spencer Arrighetti
How many home runs has Spencer Arrighetti allowed this season?
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed 19 home runs across 18 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Spencer Arrighetti?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Spencer Arrighetti include Colt Keith (2), Vinnie Pasquantino (2), Zach Neto (2) and 21 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.