14
HRs allowed
11.9%
HR rate (pool)
8.9%
Overall HR/FB
3.91
FIP
4.71
xFIP
-0.80
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
16
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 16th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
63.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.5 EV · 395 ft
max EV allowed 110.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 6 HR ↑
30D · 8 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Spencer Arrighetti.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Curveball Breaking
33.5%
79.6
4.0°
1
+0.1
Fastball Hard
28.9%
83.0
30.5°
5
-0.3
Sweeper Breaking
12.3%
81.8
27.4°
2
+1.0
Sinker Hard
10.7%
81.5
19.4°
2
+1.3
Changeup Offspeed
7.4%
83.0
2.1°
0
+0.5
Cutter Hard
6.2%
85.2
22.9°
2
-0.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups118
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate11.9%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups8
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB8.9% 16
HR/9—
FIP3.91 44
xFIP4.71
FIP − xFIP-0.80 9
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed63.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Curveball
Breaking · 33.5% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.6 mph
Avg launch angle4.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches464
Fastball
Hard · 28.9% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle30.5°
HRs allowed5
Pitches400
Sweeper
Breaking · 12.3% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.8 mph
Avg launch angle27.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches170
Sinker
Hard · 10.7% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.5 mph
Avg launch angle19.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches148
Changeup
Offspeed · 7.4% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle2.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches102
Cutter
Hard · 6.2% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.2 mph
Avg launch angle22.9°
HRs allowed2
Pitches86
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Spencer Arrighetti.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.5 EV · 395 ft
8 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 14 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-08
8
1
104.8
2026-07-03
9
2
103.4
2026-06-26
9
3
105.5
2026-06-20
8
2
105.9
2026-06-14
5
0
108.3
2026-06-08
7
1
104.2
2026-06-03
9
2
110.1
2026-05-28
9
1
106.1
2026-05-22
9
1
104.7
2026-05-15
9
0
103.0
2026-05-09
9
0
102.7
2026-05-02
9
0
109.5
2026-04-26
9
1
109.3
2026-04-20
9
0
104.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Spencer Arrighetti isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.