TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.16×

CIN @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 3 mph slight_out 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:10p

+8 ↑

2:10p

+9 ↑

3:10p

+12 ↑

4:10p

+15 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +15

Best of game Elly De La Cruz conv 32 · vs Sugano ⟷ Kyle Karros conv 26 · vs Lowder → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 92

1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Elly De La Cruz — B ●●●●●

2 Nathaniel Lowe — C+ ●●●●○

3 Jj Bleday — C+ ●●●○○

FADE Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 18

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Karros — C ●●●●○

2 Willi Castro — D ●●●○○

3 Edouard Julien — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: 15.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ vs Sugano Edge — 0.225 · 94.4 · 14.0% 33.3% 30.0% F B O B 73

· COL Kyle Karros vs Lowder — 0.178 · 89.8 · 8.7% 30.0% 22.0% F B O C 57

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe vs Sugano Edge — 0.212 · 88.8 · 12.0% 25.0% 24.7% F B O C+ 64

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Sugano Edge — 0.253 · 89.0 · 11.6% 0.0% 37.2% F B O C+ 65

· CIN Spencer Steer vs Sugano — 0.180 · 89.7 · 12.4% 22.2% 12.6% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Sugano — 0.215 · 90.6 · 13.7% 11.1% 21.9% F B O C+ 67

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Sugano — 0.173 · 87.9 · 10.9% 0.0% 22.2% F B O C 54

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Lowder — 0.286 · 91.2 · 12.1% 0.0% 20.7% F B O B 70

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.209 · 85.0 · 7.3% 0.0% 16.0% F B O C 53

· CIN Tyler Stephenson COOL vs Sugano — 0.131 · 90.5 · 11.2% 0.0% 8.9% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· COL Willi Castro COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.113 · 88.2 · 7.3% 28.6% 15.0% F B O D 48

· COL Edouard Julien vs Lowder Edge — 0.108 · 91.3 · 7.8% 16.7% 15.8% F B O D 47

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Lowder — 0.142 · 87.1 · 7.8% 10.0% 9.4% F B O D 48

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.181 · 83.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 49

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.097 · 87.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 44

· COL Troy Johnston vs Lowder Edge — 0.137 · 89.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 41

· COL Tyler Freeman vs Lowder — 0.077 · 88.0 · 3.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.3% ← leak BRK 28.4% OFF 20.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

21.5% 11.1% 4.1% 15.3% B 73 —

Neutral · 6

Sal Stewart R

16.7% 9.5% 11.1% 13.8% C+ 67 —

Jj Bleday L Edge

10.9% 10.3% 6.4% 9.6% C+ 65 —

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

9.5% 10.0% 12.9% 10.3% C+ 64 —

Spencer Steer R

12.0% 10.8% 12.5% 11.7% C+ 62 —

Eugenio Suarez R

10.6% 3.0% 7.7% 8.7% C 54 —

Tyler Stephenson R

13.1% 4.3% 5.9% 9.9% C 52 —

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

135

Tj Friedl L Edge

3.0% 4.2% 0.0% 2.7% D 44 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.3% usage) carries Sugano's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.5% BRK 26.9% OFF 20.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

17.7% 16.7% 7.7% 16.2% B 70 —

Neutral · 2

Kyle Karros R

7.9% 5.3% 15.0% 7.9% C 57 —

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.3% 1.8% 11.1% 5.8% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.3% 2.4% 6.1% 5.1% D 49 —

100

Ezequiel Tovar R

7.6% 9.0% 4.5% 7.9% D 48 —

102

Willi Castro S Edge

5.5% 5.8% 7.0% 5.9% D 48 —

107

Edouard Julien L Edge

5.6% 11.8% 6.5% 7.1% D 47 —

163

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.8% 4.1% 0.0% 2.6% D 41 —

199

Tyler Freeman R

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 36 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Lowder's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Stewart Bleday Lowe Steer Karros Castro Julien

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Elly De La Cruz — · 73

Kyle Karros — · 57

Nathaniel Lowe — · 64

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.16× Wind 3 mph slight_out 69°F open

↑

2 mph · slight_out

87°F

1:10p

↑

1 mph · out

91°F

2:10p

↑

2 mph · out

94°F

3:10p

+12

↑

5 mph · out

95°F

4:10p

+15

↑

8 mph · out

95°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 69°F, wind 3 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 73 B — · 6 0.225 94.4 14.0% 15.9%vs RHP 395 17.3% 33.3% 30.0% 22

2 Sal Stewart 67 C+ — COOL 14 0.215 90.6 13.7% 21.3%vs RHP 389 12.3% 11.1% 21.9% 29

3 Jj Bleday 65 C+ — · 18 0.253 89.0 11.6% 26.8%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 37.2% 23

4 Nathaniel Lowe 64 C+ — WARM 21 0.212 88.8 12.0% 30.3%vs RHP 396 15.1% 25.0% 24.7% 7

5 Spencer Steer 62 C+ — WARM 26 0.180 89.7 12.4% 18.0%vs RHP 393 13.6% 22.2% 12.6% 23

6 Eugenio Suarez 54 C — HOT 55 0.173 87.9 10.9% 25.0%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 11

7 Tyler Stephenson 52 C — COOL 71 0.131 90.5 11.2% 15.8%vs RHP 384 6.8% 0.0% 8.9% 16

8 Tj Friedl 44 D — COOL 135 0.097 87.8 6.1% 9.1%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 15

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 70 B — COOL 9 0.286 91.2 12.1% 40.4%vs RHP 409 24.4% 0.0% 20.7% 17

2 Kyle Karros 57 C — WARM 40 0.178 89.8 8.7% 25.0%vs RHP 417 11.8% 30.0% 22.0% 27

3 Jake Mccarthy 53 C — COOL 63 0.209 85.0 7.3% 19.1%vs RHP 419 14.3% 0.0% 16.0% 26

4 Tj Rumfield 49 D — COOL 89 0.181 83.8 6.9% 18.8%vs RHP 406 7.1% 0.0% 13.8% 25

5 Ezequiel Tovar 48 D — COOL 100 0.142 87.1 7.8% 16.4%vs RHP 410 8.0% 10.0% 9.4% 26

6 Willi Castro 48 D — COOL 102 0.113 88.2 7.3% 10.4%vs RHP 419 8.3% 28.6% 15.0% 12

7 Edouard Julien 47 D — WARM 107 0.108 91.3 7.8% 13.8%vs RHP 400 3.9% 16.7% 15.8% 9

8 Troy Johnston 41 D — WARM 163 0.137 89.6 4.4% 8.3%vs RHP 415 1.4% 0.0% 9.0% 13

9 Tyler Freeman 36 D — WARM 199 0.077 88.0 3.6% 4.2%vs RHP 369 2.3% 0.0% 7.1% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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