5
HRs allowed
7.5%
HR rate (pool)
12.9%
Overall HR/FB
4.51
FIP
4.48
xFIP
+0.02
FIP − xFIP gap
#25
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
50
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 50th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
9.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.8 EV · 392 ft
max EV allowed 113.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 48.3%
BRK 30.5%
OFF 21.2%
Overall
Score
Long shots · 6 — below the fade line
No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal.
3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
39.1%
87.8
3.4°
1
-1.2
Sweeper Breaking
25.3%
83.4
13.8°
1
-0.6
Changeup Offspeed
21.2%
81.5
-1.3°
1
-0.4
Fastball Hard
9.2%
80.4
23.9°
0
-1.7
Slider Breaking
5.2%
77.0
11.6°
0
+1.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups67
HRs allowed (pool)5
Pool HR rate7.5%
Pool HR/game day0.62
Top-15 matchups2
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB12.9% 50
HR/9—
FIP4.51 68
xFIP4.48
FIP − xFIP+0.02 49
Barrel% allowed9.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-01
Sinker
Hard · 39.1% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.8 mph
Avg launch angle3.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches346
Sweeper
Breaking · 25.3% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.4 mph
Avg launch angle13.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches224
Changeup
Offspeed · 21.2% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.5 mph
Avg launch angle-1.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches188
Fastball
Hard · 9.2% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.4 mph
Avg launch angle23.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches81
Slider
Breaking · 5.2% usage
+1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.0 mph
Avg launch angle11.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches46
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
5 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.8 EV · 392 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-26
8
1
110.6
2026-08-20
9
0
108.4
2026-08-15
6
0
102.6
2026-08-09
9
2
105.6
2026-08-04
9
1
113.7
2026-07-29
9
0
110.0
2026-07-23
9
1
106.2
2026-07-18
8
0
109.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Kauffman Stadium
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.017
Wind
7 mph from SSW
Temp
92°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:40p
7
92°
+9
7:40p
7
91°
+9
8:40p
7
89°
+9
9:40p
7
88°
+9
10:40p
7
86°
+9
+9
Slight green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 7 mph from SSW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
320ft
short
CF
400ft
avg
RF
320ft
short
vs LHH → RF ▲ leans
356ft
2 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
355ft
1 HR allowed
Shortest: LF 320 ft
HRs allowed avg 392 ft · n=5
Fences reportedly moved in ~10 ft for 2026 — verify
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
35
3
9%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
9
0
0%
6
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Randy Dobnak
Is Randy Dobnak likely to give up a home run tonight?
Randy Dobnak pitches tonight (MIA @ KC at Kauffman Stadium). This season he has allowed 5 home runs across 8 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Randy Dobnak allowed this season?
Randy Dobnak has allowed 5 home runs across 8 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Randy Dobnak?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Randy Dobnak include Ian Happ (1), James Outman (1), Josh Bell (1) and 2 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.