10
HRs allowed
8.9%
HR rate (pool)
12.7%
Overall HR/FB
4.33
FIP
4.35
xFIP
-0.02
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
46
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 46th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
14.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed
78.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.9 EV · 398 ft
max EV allowed 113.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Randy Dobnak.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
38.6%
88.1
5.8°
2
-1.0
Sweeper Breaking
24.8%
82.6
17.7°
3
+1.1
Changeup Offspeed
22.1%
82.5
1.5°
2
+0.2
Fastball Hard
9.7%
82.2
23.1°
0
-0.4
Slider Breaking
4.9%
77.0
11.9°
0
+1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups112
HRs allowed (pool)10
Pool HR rate8.9%
Pool HR/game day0.77
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB12.7% 46
HR/9—
FIP4.33 62
xFIP4.35
FIP − xFIP-0.02 43
Barrel% allowed14.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed78.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Sinker
Hard · 38.6% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.1 mph
Avg launch angle5.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches488
Sweeper
Breaking · 24.8% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.6 mph
Avg launch angle17.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches313
Changeup
Offspeed · 22.1% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle1.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches279
Fastball
Hard · 9.7% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle23.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches122
Slider
Breaking · 4.9% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.0 mph
Avg launch angle11.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches62
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Randy Dobnak.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
10 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.9 EV · 398 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 13 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-24
9
1
105.6
2026-09-18
9
1
107.6
2026-09-12
9
0
108.1
2026-09-06
9
1
110.1
2026-09-01
9
2
110.4
2026-08-26
8
1
110.6
2026-08-20
9
0
108.4
2026-08-15
6
0
102.6
2026-08-09
9
2
105.6
2026-08-04
9
1
113.7
2026-07-29
9
0
110.0
2026-07-23
9
1
106.2
2026-07-18
8
0
109.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Randy Dobnak isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Randy Dobnak isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
62
7
11%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
9
0
0%
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 7. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Randy Dobnak
How many home runs has Randy Dobnak allowed this season?
Randy Dobnak has allowed 10 home runs across 13 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Randy Dobnak?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Randy Dobnak include Brandon Lowe (1), Graham Pauley (1), Ian Happ (1) and 7 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.