0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
18.1%
Overall HR/FB
4.98
FIP
4.59
xFIP
#14
Leakiest SP today (of 32, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
83
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 83th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 41.5%
OFF 20.1%
BRK 19.5%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 5 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (41.5% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
41.5%
87.6
-9.6°
1
-2.0
Changeup Offspeed
20.1%
88.9
3.6°
0
-1.3
Sweeper Breaking
19.5%
83.8
7.4°
0
+0.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB18.1% 83
HR/9—
FIP4.98 80
xFIP4.59
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-18
Sinker
Hard · 41.5% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.6 mph
Avg launch angle-9.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches66
Changeup
Offspeed · 20.1% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.9 mph
Avg launch angle3.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches32
Sweeper
Breaking · 19.5% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle7.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches31
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Randy Dobnak.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Kauffman Stadium
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.979
Wind
1 mph from S
Temp
77°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
4:10p
1
77°
+0
5:10p
1
77°
+0
6:10p
1
77°
+0
7:10p
1
77°
+0
8:10p
1
77°
+0
+0
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 1 mph from S
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.