Today · 2026-07-17

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 8 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 Ben Rice vs Roki Sasaki FIP 5.82 HR/FB 27.0% #2 Yordan Alvarez vs Dean Kremer FIP 6.95 HR/FB 41.2% #4 Hunter Goodman vs Brady Singer FIP 5.7 HR/FB 23.1% #7 Jordan Walker vs Merrill Kelly FIP 6.27 HR/FB 26.7% #9 Paul Goldschmidt vs Roki Sasaki FIP 5.82 HR/FB 30.0% #10 Kazuma Okamoto vs Anthony Kay FIP 5.2 HR/FB 22.0% #12 Christian Walker vs Dean Kremer FIP 6.95 HR/FB 25.0% #15 Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Bailey Ober FIP 5.08 HR/FB 21.6%

📦 STACK Roki Sasaki FIP 5.82 HR/FB 27.0% → #1 Ben Rice, #9 Paul Goldschmidt

📦 STACK Dean Kremer FIP 6.95 HR/FB 41.2% → #2 Yordan Alvarez, #12 Christian Walker

📦 STACK Gage Jump FIP 3.36 HR/FB 10.0% → #3 James Wood, #14 Curtis Mead

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-16. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.7% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Ben Rice (L) ²	87	-3.3	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟢 A	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%13.5% Avg EV92.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffCarson Palmquist Exit Velo102.0 mph Angle29.0° Distance387 ft StadiumNationals Park	○●●○○	1.0×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.06 FIP3.78 IP831.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+6 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.4°F Wind6.0 mph N Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR Note71°F, wind 6 mph N (in) — modifier: +0
2	James Wood (L) ³	76	-6.4	●	Gage Jump (LHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	28	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV95.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffWill Warren Exit Velo110.0 mph Angle26.0° Distance434 ft StadiumNationals Park	●○●●●	0.0×	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.58 FIP5.04 IP894.3000000000001 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR NoteUnknown stadium
3	Hunter Goodman (R) ⁵	74	-12.0	●	Brady Singer (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	27	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	16d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffMax Meyer Exit Velo104.3 mph Angle45.0° Distance403 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○○○	3.3×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.39 FIP4.96 IP849.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+77 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.3°F Wind4 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+77 · Deep green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note70°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0
4	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁵	73	-13.9	●	Dean Kremer (RHP) BAL @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	31	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%13.8% Avg EV94.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffKumar Rocker Exit Velo112.8 mph Angle28.0° Distance425 ft StadiumGlobe Life Field	○○●●○	0.5×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.08 FIP4.11 IP859.5 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-8 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp81.0°F Wind4 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note81°F, wind 4 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
5	Shohei Ohtani (L) ⁵	73	-15.4	●	Gerrit Cole (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffMitch Bratt Exit Velo111.8 mph Angle33.0° Distance437 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	●○●○●	0.0×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.80 IP878.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+5 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.4°F Wind6.0 mph N Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note71°F, wind 6 mph N (in) — modifier: +0
6	Matt Olson (L) ⁴	72	-9.6	●	Cal Quantrill (RHP) TEX @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	25	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-07-09 OffMitch Keller Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle37.0° Distance404 ft StadiumPNC Park	○●○○○	1.0×	1	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.25 FIP4.13 IP857.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-15 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.8°F Wind1.0 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note75°F, wind 1 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0
7	Jordan Walker (R) ⁴	69	-4.7	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) STL @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%13.7% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-07-09 OffChad Patrick Exit Velo106.5 mph Angle28.0° Distance406 ft StadiumBusch Stadium	○●○○○	1.0×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.29 FIP4.52 IP859.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-16 Weather · Chase Field warm air · steady crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp78.4°F Wind11.4 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-16 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note78°F, wind 11 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1
8	Jake Bauers (L) ³	68	-7.5	●	Sandy Alcantara (RHP) MIA @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo111.8 mph Angle22.0° Distance375 ft StadiumPNC Park	●○●●○	0.2×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.9% HR/90.98 FIP3.96 IP897.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-12 Weather · American Family Field mild air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp68.9°F Wind1.0 mph WSW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-12 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note69°F, wind 1 mph WSW (in) — modifier: +0
9	Paul Goldschmidt (R) ²	68	·	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	15	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls15 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV86.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffClayton Beeter Exit Velo103.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance395 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.06 FIP3.78 IP831.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.4°F Wind6.0 mph N Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note71°F, wind 6 mph N (in) — modifier: +0
10	Kazuma Okamoto (R) ²	66	-9.7	●	Anthony Kay (LHP) CWS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffJhony Brito Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle44.0° Distance377 ft StadiumPetco Park	○●●○○	1.0×	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.08 FIP4.29 IP852.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
11	Kody Clemens (L) ³	65	-7.5	●	Colin Rea (RHP) MIN @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffBrendan Beck Exit Velo101.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance393 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○○○○	2.3×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.9% HR/91.58 FIP4.82 IP852.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+11 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.5°F Wind3.6 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+11 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note75°F, wind 4 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0
12	Christian Walker (R) ²	65	-5.0	●	Dean Kremer (RHP) BAL @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffMason Englert Exit Velo99.1 mph Angle28.0° Distance351 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○○○○	1.5×	1	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.08 FIP4.11 IP859.5 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-19 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp81.0°F Wind4 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note81°F, wind 4 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
13	Pete Alonso (R) ³	64	-10.3	●	Peter Lambert (RHP) BAL @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffNoah Cameron Exit Velo103.9 mph Angle25.0° Distance420 ft StadiumCamden Yards	●○○●○	0.2×	·	HOU Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.44 FIP4.97 IP872.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-12 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp81.0°F Wind4 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-12 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note81°F, wind 4 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
14	Curtis Mead (R) ³	63	-4.3	●	Gage Jump (LHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%8.3% Avg EV87.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffCam Schlittler Exit Velo100.5 mph Angle33.0° Distance388 ft StadiumNationals Park	●○○○●	0.0×	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.58 FIP5.04 IP894.3000000000001 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR NoteUnknown stadium
15	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ⁴	63	-14.2	●	Bailey Ober (RHP) MIN @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffDean Kremer Exit Velo106.7 mph Angle35.0° Distance419 ft StadiumCamden Yards	●○○○○	1.3×	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/91.13 FIP4.29 IP897.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+10 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.5°F Wind3.6 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+10 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note75°F, wind 4 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0
16	Samuel Basallo (L)	63	-4.7	●	Peter Lambert (RHP) BAL @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffLucas Erceg Exit Velo105.0 mph Angle22.0° Distance404 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○●○●	0.0×	·	HOU Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.44 FIP4.97 IP872.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-8 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp81.0°F Wind4 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note81°F, wind 4 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
17	Shea Langeliers (R) ³	62	-8.4	●	Cade Cavalli (RHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls10 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffNoah Schultz Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle29.0° Distance411 ft StadiumRate Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.42 FIP4.71 IP866.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR NoteUnknown stadium
18	Trent Grisham (L) ²	62	-5.9	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	10	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffClayton Beeter Exit Velo106.3 mph Angle29.0° Distance398 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○●○	0.1×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.06 FIP3.78 IP831.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+6 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.4°F Wind6.0 mph N Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note71°F, wind 6 mph N (in) — modifier: +0
19	Junior Caminero (R) ²	65	-13.6	●	BOS Bullpen Proxy TB @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	28	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%13.6% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffJosé A. Ferrer Exit Velo102.3 mph Angle27.0° Distance385 ft StadiumTropicana Field	○●●○○	1.0×	1	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.10 FIP3.92 IP851.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-8 Weather · Fenway Park cool air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.4°F Wind2.0 mph W Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note63°F, wind 2 mph W (out) — modifier: +0
20	Kyle Karros (R) ³	61	-0.9	●	Brady Singer (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	9	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.1% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffJT Brubaker Exit Velo105.9 mph Angle27.0° Distance435 ft StadiumOracle Park	●○○●○	0.2×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.39 FIP4.96 IP849.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+74 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.3°F Wind4 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+74 · Deep green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 9 HR Note70°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0
21	Max Muncy (L) ³	61	-13.1	●	Gerrit Cole (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	5	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	18d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffGage Jump Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle30.0° Distance422 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	4.3×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.80 IP878.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+5 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.4°F Wind6.0 mph N Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note71°F, wind 6 mph N (in) — modifier: +0
22	Munetaka Murakami (L) ³	60	-11.5	●	Spencer Miles (RHP) CWS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls4 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	51d Last HR · 2026-05-27 OffConnor Prielipp Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle24.0° Distance432 ft StadiumRate Field	○○○○○	1.7×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.16 FIP4.09 IP874.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
23	Ryan Mcmahon (L)	59	-5.4	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) LAD @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	9	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls10 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV90.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	49d Last HR · 2026-05-29 OffLuis Severino Exit Velo100.8 mph Angle31.0° Distance401 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	●○	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.06 FIP3.78 IP831.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.4°F Wind6.0 mph N Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 8 HR Note71°F, wind 6 mph N (in) — modifier: +0
24	Tyler Soderstrom (L) ²	59	-5.4	●	Cade Cavalli (RHP) WSH @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls8 BBE Barrel%8.3% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffSean Burke Exit Velo104.5 mph Angle35.0° Distance392 ft StadiumRate Field	○○○●○	0.2×	1	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.42 FIP4.71 IP866.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR NoteUnknown stadium
25	Junior Caminero (R) ²	59	-15.3	●	Jake Bennett (LHP) TB @ BOS · Fenway Park	1:35p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	28	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffJosé A. Ferrer Exit Velo102.3 mph Angle27.0° Distance385 ft StadiumTropicana Field	○●●○○	1.0×	1	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.10 FIP3.92 IP851.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-8 Weather · Fenway Park cool air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.4°F Wind2.0 mph W Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note63°F, wind 2 mph W (out) — modifier: +0
26	Kyle Stowers (L) ²	59	-12.8	●	Logan Henderson (RHP) MIA @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffGeorge Kirby Exit Velo105.4 mph Angle26.0° Distance416 ft StadiumloanDepot Park	○●○○○	0.5×	·	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.4% HR/90.99 FIP3.62 IP866.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-11 Weather · American Family Field mild air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp68.9°F Wind1.0 mph WSW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR Note69°F, wind 1 mph WSW (in) — modifier: +0
27	Elly De La Cruz (S)	59	-9.3	●	Gabriel Hughes (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV94.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffShota Imanaga Exit Velo108.5 mph Angle21.0° Distance400 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	●○●○○	0.4×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.39 FIP4.83 IP877.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+66 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.3°F Wind4 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+66 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note70°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0
28	Drake Baldwin (L) ²	59	-8.7	●	Cal Quantrill (RHP) TEX @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffHuascar Brazobán Exit Velo101.3 mph Angle30.0° Distance383 ft StadiumTruist Park	○○○○○	3.5×	·	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.25 FIP4.13 IP857.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-21 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.8°F Wind1.0 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-21 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note75°F, wind 1 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0
29	Jake Mccarthy (L) ³	58	-2.4	●	Brady Singer (RHP) CIN @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	10	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%7.7% Avg EV85.0 mph Surprise BarrelYes Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	46d Last HR · 2026-06-01 OffJosé Soriano Exit Velo104.6 mph Angle26.0° Distance397 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	○○○○○	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.39 FIP4.96 IP849.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+47 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.3°F Wind4 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+47 · Green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 4 HR Note70°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0
30	Colson Montgomery (L) ²	58	-10.4	●	Spencer Miles (RHP) CWS @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:15p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	23	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%8.3% Avg EV89.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffTanner Bibee Exit Velo109.7 mph Angle20.0° Distance390 ft StadiumProgressive Field	○○○○○	2.0×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.16 FIP4.09 IP874.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.8%

▲ +1.1 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 17.2% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-07-16

3 HRs

100%

3 caught / 3 HRs

in top 50

#4 Francisco Alvarez

13.7%

🟠

#12 Brett Baty

9.0%

⚪

#13 Trea Turner

8.0%

⚪

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

James Wood ×4 Ben Rice ×3 Shohei Ohtani ×3 Esmerlyn Valdez ×2 Jake Bauers ×2

❄️ Cold

Dansby Swanson 0 of 6d Ian Happ 0 of 6d Kody Clemens 0 of 6d Bryce Harper 0 of 5d Freddie Freeman 0 of 5d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.8%

B 19.8%

C+ 16.7%

C 13.6%

D 8.8%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-17

You saw the full board yesterday

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.