7
HRs allowed
9.0%
HR rate (pool)
17.4%
Overall HR/FB
4.35
FIP
4.15
xFIP
+0.20
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
82
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 82th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
60.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.6 EV · 388 ft
max EV allowed 114.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Gerrit Cole.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
45.4%
84.9
34.8°
3
-0.9
Slider Breaking
18.9%
80.7
20.3°
1
+0.1
Changeup Offspeed
14.7%
80.6
21.2°
1
-0.8
Knuckle Curve Breaking
13.4%
84.1
-1.7°
2
+1.9
Sinker Hard
7.6%
86.6
19.8°
1
+6.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups78
HRs allowed (pool)7
Pool HR rate9.0%
Pool HR/game day0.78
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB17.4% 82
HR/9—
FIP4.35 62
xFIP4.15
FIP − xFIP+0.20 60
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed60.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 45.4% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle34.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches349
Slider
Breaking · 18.9% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.7 mph
Avg launch angle20.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches145
Changeup
Offspeed · 14.7% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.6 mph
Avg launch angle21.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches113
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 13.4% usage
+1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle-1.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches103
Sinker
Hard · 7.6% usage
+6.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.6 mph
Avg launch angle19.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches58
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Gerrit Cole.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
7 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.6 EV · 388 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 9 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-08
9
0
104.8
2026-07-03
9
1
106.3
2026-06-27
7
1
114.4
2026-06-22
9
1
107.5
2026-06-16
8
1
101.8
2026-06-09
9
0
109.6
2026-06-03
9
3
107.1
2026-05-27
9
0
105.4
2026-05-22
9
0
113.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Gerrit Cole isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.