TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ CLE

Progressive Field is live · 1.28×

PIT @ CLE

Progressive Field · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 8 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

7:10p

-7 ↑

8:10p

-7 ↑

9:10p

-7 ↑

10:10p

-7 ↑

11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -7 FIT

Best of game Bryan Reynolds conv 26 · vs Williams ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 35 · vs Jones → edge: Rhys Hoskins

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 86

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryan Reynolds — C ●●●●○

2 Marcell Ozuna — D ●●●●○

3 Ryan O'Hearn — C ●●●○○

FADE Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 13

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●●

2 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●●○○

3 Chase Delauter — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rhys Hoskins: 10.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins ✶ vs Jones — 0.187 · 88.5 · 9.2% 50.0% 19.2% F B O C 50

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.193 · 90.9 · 10.7% 30.0% 21.9% F B O C 54

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn HOT vs Williams Edge — 0.194 · 89.7 · 9.6% 10.0% 23.1% F B O C 50

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.236 · 90.9 · 11.9% 10.0% 17.0% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· PIT Marcell Ozuna HOT vs Williams — 0.124 · 89.7 · 10.0% 33.3% 12.9% F B O D 44

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Jones Edge — 0.136 · 86.5 · 4.7% 25.0% 15.4% F B O D 38

· CLE Chase Delauter HOT vs Jones Edge — 0.189 · 90.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 29.8% F B O D 44

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Williams Edge — 0.076 · 84.6 · 4.3% 11.1% 8.0% F B O D 30

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.173 · 88.1 · 5.7% 0.0% 15.0% F B O D 40

· CLE Kyle Manzardo COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.149 · 89.1 · 9.0% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 43

· CLE Daniel Schneemann vs Jones Edge — 0.129 · 88.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 38

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Williams — 0.084 · 85.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 30

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.055 · 83.1 · 1.7% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.0% BRK 49.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.8% 7.1% 12.7% C 57 —

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

9.6% 14.5% 10.0% C 54 —

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

9.8% 7.6% 8.7% C 50 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

129

Marcell Ozuna R

8.7% 11.5% 8.6% D 44 —

221

Nick Gonzales R

1.7% 4.8% 2.5% D 30 —

222

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.3% 0.0% 1.5% D 30 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Williams's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.5% ← leak BRK 42.0% OFF 15.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R

8.2% 15.2% 16.7% 10.5% C 50 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

124

Chase Delauter L Edge

10.2% 6.3% 2.0% 7.7% D 44 —

139

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

12.0% 10.9% 8.1% 10.9% D 43 —

163

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.9% 4.3% 0.0% 4.8% D 40 —

174

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.7% 3.9% 1.4% 3.2% D 38 —

177

Daniel Schneemann L Edge

12.4% 6.1% 0.0% 8.4% D 38 —

235

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.5% usage) carries Jones's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Reynolds O'Hearn Ozuna Hoskins Delauter Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Rhys Hoskins — · 50

Bryan Reynolds — · 54

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 8 mph out 84°F open

-7

↑

13 mph · cross

83°F

7:10p · peak

-7

↑

13 mph · cross

83°F

8:10p

-7

↑

13 mph · cross

83°F

9:10p

-7

↑

13 mph · cross

83°F

10:10p

-7

↑

13 mph · cross

83°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.28× 84°F, wind 7 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 57 C — COOL 43 0.236 90.9 11.9% 24.6%vs RHP 392 16.7% 10.0% 17.0% 27

2 Bryan Reynolds 54 C — COOL 55 0.193 90.9 10.7% 18.6%vs RHP 409 14.3% 30.0% 21.9% 24

3 Ryan O'Hearn 50 C — HOT 79 0.194 89.7 9.6% 22.6%vs RHP 384 15.2% 10.0% 23.1% 26

4 Marcell Ozuna 44 D — HOT 129 0.124 89.7 10.0% 14.3%vs RHP 404 9.9% 33.3% 12.9% 7

5 Nick Gonzales 30 D — COOL 221 0.084 85.8 5.4% 8.8%vs RHP 399 4.5% 0.0% 9.5% 28

6 Jake Mangum 30 D — HOT 222 0.076 84.6 4.3% 11.1%vs RHP 408 3.8% 11.1% 8.0% 29

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins ✶ 50 C — WARM 80 0.187 88.5 9.2% 23.8%vs RHP 383 13.2% 50.0% 19.2% 9

2 Chase Delauter 44 D — HOT 124 0.189 90.9 7.1% 25.6%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 29.8% 29

3 Kyle Manzardo 43 D — COOL 139 0.149 89.1 9.0% 20.8%vs RHP 389 10.6% 0.0% 13.2% 21

4 Travis Bazzana 40 D — COOL 163 0.173 88.1 5.7% 18.9%vs RHP 395 9.8% 0.0% 15.0% 26

5 Brayan Rocchio 38 D — WARM 174 0.136 86.5 4.7% 14.0%vs RHP 386 8.0% 25.0% 15.4% 29

6 Daniel Schneemann 38 D — WARM 177 0.129 88.0 7.8% 11.9%vs RHP 398 6.8% 0.0% 10.3% 15

7 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 235 0.055 83.1 1.7% 2.0%vs RHP 381 1.2% 0.0% 8.7% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.