TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ AZ

Neutral air · 1.03×

STL @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph cross 80°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

-2 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -2 FIT

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 35 · vs Kelly ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 26 · vs McGreevy → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 96

2.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Alec Burleson +390 C ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 83

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +750 D ●●●●○

2 Geraldo Perdomo +750 D ●○○○○

3 Corbin Carroll +400 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: 14.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ vs Kelly +370 0.241 · 94.2 · 13.7% 36.4% 33.4% F B O C+ 69

· STL Alec Burleson vs Kelly Edge +390 0.194 · 91.7 · 12.4% 10.0% 13.5% F B O C 56

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs McGreevy Edge +400 0.222 · 91.3 · 10.0% 0.0% 14.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs McGreevy +750 0.178 · 85.2 · 8.1% 33.3% 18.3% F B O D 46

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Kelly Edge +700 0.147 · 85.9 · 10.4% 11.1% 10.2% F B O D 46

· STL José Fermín vs Kelly +950 0.127 · 84.9 · 5.4% 10.0% 8.6% F B O D 38

· STL Masyn Winn vs Kelly +850 0.087 · 88.0 · 6.5% 10.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs McGreevy Edge +750 0.113 · 87.1 · 5.4% 10.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs McGreevy Edge +400 0.203 · 91.0 · 9.9% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 49

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Kelly +575 0.148 · 89.2 · 8.7% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 41

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs McGreevy +850 0.160 · 89.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Kelly Edge +500 0.137 · 90.0 · 9.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 44

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs McGreevy Edge +850 0.147 · 87.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.6% ← leak OFF 25.8% BRK 22.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R

15.0% 16.1% 13.3% 14.6% C+ 69 +370

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.8% 10.8% 12.0% 11.7% C 56 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

114

Nathan Church L Edge

9.5% 7.1% 6.2% 7.9% D 46 +700

125

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

11.2% 2.5% 4.0% 8.2% D 44 +500

154

Ivan Herrera R

5.8% 8.8% 6.4% 6.4% D 41 +575

180

José Fermín R

2.3% 0.0% 2.8% 2.1% D 38 +950

193

Masyn Winn R

3.5% 3.4% 2.3% 3.1% D 36 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Kelly's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 26.2% OFF 20.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.8% 14.1% 5.9% 10.8% C 50 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ketel Marte S Edge

15.1% 7.5% 4.2% 10.8% D 49 +400

109

Nolan Arenado R

10.4% 1.3% 3.8% 6.9% D 46 +750

165

Gabriel Moreno R

7.0% 8.5% 10.7% 8.0% D 40 +850

203

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.7% 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% D 35 +850

212

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.1% 0.0% 2.9% 3.1% D 33 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jordan Walker +370 · 69

Nolan Arenado +750 · 46

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph cross 80°F retractable

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

85°F

6:40p · peak

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

85°F

7:40p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

85°F

8:40p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

85°F

9:40p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

85°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 80°F, wind 6 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 2.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.31 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 69 C+ +370 WARM 7 0.241 94.2 13.7% 34.0%vs RHP 406 20.5% 36.4% 33.4% 30

2 Alec Burleson 56 C +390 WARM 50 0.194 91.7 12.4% 21.7%vs RHP 407 16.7% 10.0% 13.5% 31

3 Nathan Church 46 D +700 COOL 114 0.147 85.9 10.4% 21.4%vs RHP 388 9.7% 11.1% 10.2% 24

4 Jj Wetherholt 44 D +500 WARM 125 0.137 90.0 9.8% 17.2%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 30

5 Ivan Herrera 41 D +575 COOL 154 0.148 89.2 8.7% 18.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 32

6 José Fermín 38 D +950 WARM 180 0.127 84.9 5.4% 13.3%vs RHP 384 6.2% 10.0% 8.6% 28

7 Masyn Winn 36 D +850 WARM 193 0.087 88.0 6.5% 12.1%vs RHP 390 4.5% 10.0% 8.4% 26

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 50 C +400 COOL 83 0.222 91.3 10.0% 20.4%vs RHP 406 13.2% 0.0% 14.3% 23

2 Ketel Marte 49 D +400 COOL 90 0.203 91.0 9.9% 14.7%vs RHP 413 15.4% 0.0% 12.1% 33

3 Nolan Arenado 46 D +750 WARM 109 0.178 85.2 8.1% 18.8%vs RHP 392 12.5% 33.3% 18.3% 23

4 Gabriel Moreno 40 D +850 COOL 165 0.160 89.4 8.1% 16.2%vs RHP 395 7.8% 0.0% 9.4% 32

5 Ildemaro Vargas 35 D +850 WARM 203 0.147 87.3 5.7% 10.3%vs RHP 399 5.7% 0.0% 8.2% 25

6 Geraldo Perdomo 33 D +750 COOL 212 0.113 87.1 5.4% 8.9%vs RHP 386 6.2% 10.0% 7.2% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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