TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.25×

WSH @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game James Wood conv 52 · vs Jump ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 32 · vs Cavalli → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 26

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 James Wood +280 B ●●●●●

2 Curtis Mead +400 C+ ●●●●●

3 Keibert Ruiz +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 13

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom +400 C ●●●●●

2 Shea Langeliers +320 C+ ●●●○○

3 Carlos Cortes — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 66.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Jump +280 0.284 · 95.0 · 11.5% 66.7% 38.2% F B O B 76

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Cavalli Edge +400 0.232 · 90.1 · 8.3% 33.3% 31.4% F B O C 59

· WSH Curtis Mead vs Jump Edge +400 0.253 · 87.9 · 8.3% 28.6% 33.0% F B O C+ 63

· ATH Shea Langeliers vs Cavalli +320 0.231 · 91.8 · 10.1% 12.5% 29.0% F B O C+ 62

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Jump +390 0.228 · 89.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 21.9% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Jump Edge +525 0.183 · 89.3 · 5.8% 16.7% 15.3% F B O D 49

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Jump +625 0.158 · 88.0 · 6.7% 12.5% 14.0% F B O D 46

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Cavalli Edge — 0.148 · 89.8 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 44

· ATH Lawrence Butler COOL vs Cavalli Edge +500 0.108 · 88.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 40

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Jump Edge +700 0.142 · 88.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 43

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Cavalli Edge +850 0.074 · 86.5 · 2.5% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 32

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Jump Edge +950 0.047 · 84.7 · 1.7% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 27

· ATH Jacob Wilson COOL vs Cavalli — 0.104 · 84.2 · 3.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 35

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Jump — 0.096 · 83.3 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.8% ← leak BRK 42.0% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L

22.9% 24.7% 13.8% 22.4% B 76 +280

Neutral · 2

Curtis Mead R Edge

14.2% 10.2% 3.4% 11.5% C+ 63 +400

Cj Abrams L

11.2% 7.3% 9.5% 9.6% C 54 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.3% 1.9% 3.0% 5.5% D 49 +525

103

Daylen Lile L

7.6% 10.8% 4.1% 7.7% D 46 +625

132

Jacob Young R Edge

6.9% 4.7% 3.8% 5.9% D 43 +700

175

Jorbit Vivas L

3.2% 4.9% 3.8% 3.7% D 36 —

210

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 27 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.8% usage) carries Jump's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.5% BRK 38.4% OFF 8.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shea Langeliers R

17.2% 16.1% 4.9% 14.9% C+ 62 +320

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.0% 20.0% 0.0% 10.2% C 59 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

120

Carlos Cortes L Edge

8.4% 4.7% 9.8% 7.8% D 44 —

152

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.5% 9.4% 4.4% 6.5% D 40 +500

187

Jacob Wilson R

2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 35 —

194

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.0% 2.2% 1.9% 0.8% D 32 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Cavalli's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Mead Ruiz Lile Langeliers Soderstrom

Legend

attack side — vs Jump fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

James Wood +280 · 76

Tyler Soderstrom +400 · 59

Curtis Mead +400 · 63

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 9:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.25× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.25× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gage Jump · LHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 76 B +280 · 2 0.284 95.0 11.5% 40.0%vs LHP 412 30.8% 66.7% 38.2% 26

2 Curtis Mead 63 C+ +400 WARM 14 0.253 87.9 8.3% 21.9%vs LHP 400 22.2% 28.6% 33.0% 24

3 Cj Abrams 54 C +390 · 48 0.228 89.9 7.6% 15.0%vs LHP 391 33.3% 0.0% 21.9% 30

4 Keibert Ruiz 49 D +525 WARM 85 0.183 89.3 5.8% 25.0%vs LHP 377 13.2% 16.7% 15.3% 20

5 Daylen Lile 46 D +625 HOT 103 0.158 88.0 6.7% 0.0%vs LHP 402 8.1% 12.5% 14.0% 25

6 Jacob Young 43 D +700 COOL 132 0.142 88.7 5.9% 5.6%vs LHP 391 7.9% 0.0% 8.9% 10

7 Jorbit Vivas 36 D — COOL 175 0.096 83.3 4.7% 6.8% 392 3.9% 0.0% 8.2% 19

8 Nasim Nunez 27 D +950 COOL 210 0.047 84.7 1.7% 10.0%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 16

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 62 C+ +320 WARM 17 0.231 91.8 10.1% 20.7%vs RHP 416 19.8% 12.5% 29.0% 10

2 Tyler Soderstrom 59 C +400 WARM 24 0.232 90.1 8.3% 19.1%vs RHP 402 14.8% 33.3% 31.4% 8

3 Carlos Cortes 44 D — · 120 0.148 89.8 7.5% 15.0%vs RHP 404 4.5% 0.0% 11.2% 15

4 Lawrence Butler 40 D +500 COOL 152 0.108 88.9 6.5% 23.1%vs RHP 402 3.8% 0.0% 11.0% 18

5 Jacob Wilson 35 D — COOL 187 0.104 84.2 3.2% 11.5%vs RHP 375 4.5% 0.0% 8.7% 20

6 Jeff Mcneil 32 D +850 WARM 194 0.074 86.5 2.5% 7.3%vs RHP 373 4.3% 0.0% 8.9% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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