TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.48×

BAL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 4 mph cross 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Yordan Alvarez conv 44 · vs Kremer ⟷ Samuel Basallo conv 38 · vs Lambert → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 99

3.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +3.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Yordan Alvarez +255 A ●●●●●

2 Jose Altuve +850 C ●●●●○

3 Christian Walker +500 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 85

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Samuel Basallo +525 C+ ●●●●●

2 Pete Alonso +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Coby Mayo +575 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 18.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 44.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Kremer Edge +255 0.310 · 94.7 · 13.8% 44.4% 44.1% F B O A 83

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Lambert Edge +525 0.213 · 91.5 · 9.6% 50.0% 26.7% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Kremer +850 0.165 · 85.8 · 8.2% 33.3% 24.8% F B O C 57

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Lambert +390 0.220 · 93.8 · 9.4% 22.2% 32.0% F B O C+ 64

· BAL Coby Mayo HOT vs Lambert +575 0.196 · 92.3 · 8.8% 25.0% 22.8% F B O C 57

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Kremer +500 0.231 · 89.6 · 10.1% 11.1% 21.2% F B O C+ 65

· HOU Cam Smith vs Kremer +700 0.157 · 89.5 · 11.1% 12.5% 13.2% F B O C 58

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Kremer +575 0.161 · 86.7 · 7.8% 11.1% 13.2% F B O C 53

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Lambert Edge +900 0.185 · 89.7 · 7.1% 11.1% 11.9% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Lambert +700 0.103 · 89.4 · 6.3% 11.1% 8.3% F B O D 42

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Kremer — 0.119 · 86.1 · 3.8% 0.0% 17.3% F B O D 42

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Lambert Edge +850 0.167 · 87.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 48

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Kremer +850 0.139 · 87.5 · 6.2% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 48

· BAL Adley Rutschman COOL vs Lambert Edge +700 0.178 · 89.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 49

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Lambert Edge +700 0.145 · 86.8 · 8.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 49

· BAL Dylan Beavers COOL vs Lambert Edge +850 0.116 · 87.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.0% ← leak BRK 26.3% OFF 22.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Alonso R

15.7% 7.6% 15.6% 13.3% C+ 64 +390

Samuel Basallo L Edge

15.2% 11.9% 11.1% 13.3% C+ 63 +525

Coby Mayo R

10.7% 11.5% 10.5% 11.0% C 57 +575

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

8.0% 6.6% 7.7% 7.5% C 53 +900

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.7% 15.6% 2.8% 11.8% D 49 +700

Adley Rutschman S Edge

11.5% 2.0% 4.0% 7.5% D 49 +700

100

Jackson Holliday L Edge

12.5% 4.5% 15.4% 10.8% D 48 +850

153

Taylor Ward R

8.5% 0.0% 2.9% 5.5% D 42 +700

160

Dylan Beavers L Edge

8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% D 41 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.0% usage) carries Lambert's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.5% ← leak OFF 35.3% BRK 14.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.4% 10.9% 23.8% 18.4% A 83 +255

Neutral · 4

Christian Walker R

8.9% 14.3% 11.5% 10.3% C+ 65 +500

Cam Smith R

9.6% 20.0% 17.3% 12.3% C 58 +700

Jose Altuve R

7.1% 0.0% 6.6% 6.4% C 57 +850

Isaac Paredes R

7.2% 2.6% 4.2% 5.8% C 53 +575

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

101

Jeremy Peña R

2.1% 14.3% 3.9% 3.7% D 48 +850

147

Christian Vazquez R

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 42 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.5% usage) carries Kremer's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Basallo Mayo Alvarez Walker Altuve

Legend

attack side — vs Kremer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Yordan Alvarez +255 · 83

Samuel Basallo +525 · 63

Jose Altuve +850 · 57

Pete Alonso +390 · 64

Coby Mayo +575 · 57

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.14× Wind 4 mph cross 93°F retractable

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arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.48× 93°F, wind 4 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 64 C+ +390 COOL 14 0.220 93.8 9.4% 29.3%vs RHP 401 20.0% 22.2% 32.0% 23

2 Samuel Basallo 63 C+ +525 WARM 17 0.213 91.5 9.6% 29.8%vs RHP 398 17.4% 50.0% 26.7% 23

3 Coby Mayo 57 C +575 HOT 39 0.196 92.3 8.8% 10.7%vs RHP 408 15.1% 25.0% 22.8% 8

4 Gunnar Henderson 53 C +900 WARM 67 0.185 89.7 7.1% 17.2%vs RHP 389 17.2% 11.1% 11.9% 29

5 Colton Cowser 49 D +700 WARM 91 0.145 86.8 8.9% 20.5%vs RHP 417 14.9% 0.0% 9.8% 8

6 Adley Rutschman 49 D +700 COOL 93 0.178 89.4 7.1% 13.2%vs RHP 400 9.4% 0.0% 10.9% 28

7 Jackson Holliday 48 D +850 COOL 100 0.167 87.3 8.6% 20.0%vs RHP 384 4.9% 0.0% 11.2% 14

8 Taylor Ward 42 D +700 · 153 0.103 89.4 6.3% 5.7%vs RHP 387 6.2% 11.1% 8.3% 23

9 Dylan Beavers 41 D +850 COOL 160 0.116 87.4 6.0% 11.1%vs RHP 406 2.6% 0.0% 7.8% 14

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 3.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +3.59 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 83 A +255 · 2 0.310 94.7 13.8% 27.4%vs RHP 404 28.8% 44.4% 44.1% 30

2 Christian Walker 65 C+ +500 COOL 13 0.231 89.6 10.1% 27.9%vs RHP 388 19.4% 11.1% 21.2% 24

3 Cam Smith 58 C +700 · 34 0.157 89.5 11.1% 20.0%vs RHP 414 12.5% 12.5% 13.2% 28

4 Jose Altuve 57 C +850 COOL 37 0.165 85.8 8.2% 25.0%vs RHP 379 10.0% 33.3% 24.8% 26

5 Isaac Paredes 53 C +575 COOL 66 0.161 86.7 7.8% 17.9%vs RHP 373 10.9% 11.1% 13.2% 29

6 Jeremy Peña 48 D +850 WARM 101 0.139 87.5 6.2% 15.6%vs RHP 388 7.5% 0.0% 11.1% 13

7 Christian Vazquez 42 D — COOL 147 0.119 86.1 3.8% 14.3%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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