TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.39×

CIN @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 4 mph in 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+2 ↑

8:40p

+2 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +2 FIT

Best of game Kyle Karros conv 28 · vs Singer ⟷ Nathaniel Lowe conv 25 · vs Hughes → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 93

2.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Karros +625 C+ ●●●●○

2 Ezequiel Tovar +575 C ●●●○○

3 Willi Castro +475 C ●●●○○

FADE Gabriel Hughes RHP · CIN

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathaniel Lowe — C ●●●●○

2 Elly De La Cruz +390 C ●●●○○

3 Sal Stewart +390 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Kyle Karros vs Singer +625 0.178 · 89.8 · 9.1% 30.0% 26.8% F B O C+ 61

· COL Nathaniel Lowe vs Hughes Edge — 0.212 · 88.8 · 7.6% 33.3% 17.0% F B O C 54

· COL Elly De La Cruz vs Hughes Edge +390 0.225 · 94.4 · 8.9% 22.2% 20.7% F B O C 59

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Singer +575 0.142 · 87.1 · 8.2% 20.0% 14.9% F B O C 53

· COL Willi Castro COOL vs Singer Edge +475 0.113 · 88.2 · 7.7% 16.7% 16.8% F B O C 50

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Singer Edge +700 0.209 · 85.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 30.2% F B O C 55

· COL Sal Stewart COOL vs Hughes +390 0.215 · 90.6 · 8.7% 11.1% 16.4% F B O C 55

· COL Jj Bleday vs Hughes Edge +370 0.253 · 89.0 · 7.3% 0.0% 25.6% F B O C 53

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Singer +295 0.286 · 91.2 · 12.7% 0.0% 25.2% F B O B 74

· COL Mickey Moniak COOL vs Singer Edge +350 0.286 · 89.6 · 11.0% 0.0% 22.2% F B O C+ 67

· COL Spencer Steer vs Hughes +475 0.180 · 89.7 · 7.9% 11.1% 10.1% F B O C 50

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Singer Edge +475 0.181 · 83.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 15.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· COL Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Hughes +425 0.173 · 87.9 · 6.9% 0.0% 17.8% F B O D 45

· COL Troy Johnston vs Singer Edge +510 0.137 · 89.6 · 4.6% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 44

· COL Tyler Freeman vs Singer +950 0.077 · 88.0 · 3.8% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· COL Tyler Stephenson COOL vs Hughes +400 0.131 · 90.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 43

· COL Tj Friedl COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.097 · 87.8 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.2% ← leak BRK 41.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

17.7% 16.7% 16.2% B 74 +295

Neutral · 6

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.6% 26.5% 11.7% C+ 67 +350

Kyle Karros R

7.9% 5.3% 7.9% C+ 61 +625

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.3% 1.8% 5.8% C 55 +700

Ezequiel Tovar R

7.6% 9.0% 7.9% C 53 +575

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.3% 2.4% 5.1% C 50 +475

Willi Castro S Edge

5.5% 5.8% 5.9% C 50 +475

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

131

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.8% 4.1% 2.6% D 44 +510

172

Tyler Freeman R

2.6% 0.0% 1.6% D 39 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.2% usage) carries Singer's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

21.5% 15.3% C 59 +390

Sal Stewart R

16.7% 13.8% C 55 +390

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

9.5% 10.3% C 54 —

Jj Bleday L Edge

10.9% 9.6% C 53 +370

Spencer Steer R

12.0% 11.7% C 50 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

117

Eugenio Suarez R

10.6% 8.7% D 45 +425

146

Tyler Stephenson R

13.1% 9.9% D 43 +400

199

Tj Friedl L Edge

3.0% 2.7% D 36 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Hughes's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Karros Mccarthy Tovar Castro Cruz Stewart Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Karros +625 · 61

Elly De La Cruz +390 · 59

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.16× Wind 4 mph in 88°F open

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.39× 87°F, wind 4 mph NW (in) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Singer · RHP 2.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.39 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 74 B +295 COOL 4 0.286 91.2 12.7% 40.4%vs RHP 409 24.7% 0.0% 25.2% 20

2 Mickey Moniak 67 C+ +350 COOL 10 0.286 89.6 11.0% 24.1%vs RHP 418 16.7% 0.0% 22.2% 18

3 Kyle Karros 61 C+ +625 · 21 0.178 89.8 9.1% 25.0%vs RHP 417 12.0% 30.0% 26.8% 31

4 Jake Mccarthy 55 C +700 WARM 51 0.209 85.0 7.7% 19.1%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 30.2% 31

5 Ezequiel Tovar 53 C +575 COOL 65 0.142 87.1 8.2% 16.4%vs RHP 410 8.0% 20.0% 14.9% 31

6 Tj Rumfield 50 C +475 COOL 77 0.181 83.8 7.2% 18.8%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 27

7 Willi Castro 50 C +475 COOL 82 0.113 88.2 7.7% 10.4%vs RHP 419 7.0% 16.7% 16.8% 12

8 Troy Johnston 44 D +510 WARM 131 0.137 89.6 4.6% 8.3%vs RHP 415 1.4% 0.0% 10.1% 13

9 Tyler Freeman 39 D +950 WARM 172 0.077 88.0 3.8% 4.2%vs RHP 369 2.3% 0.0% 8.7% 28

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.39 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 59 C +390 · 29 0.225 94.4 8.9% 15.9%vs RHP 395 16.2% 22.2% 20.7% 24

2 Sal Stewart 55 C +390 COOL 53 0.215 90.6 8.7% 21.3%vs RHP 389 12.5% 11.1% 16.4% 31

3 Nathaniel Lowe 54 C — WARM 57 0.212 88.8 7.6% 30.3%vs RHP 396 15.4% 33.3% 17.0% 7

4 Jj Bleday 53 C +370 · 60 0.253 89.0 7.3% 26.8%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 25.6% 27

5 Spencer Steer 50 C +475 WARM 85 0.180 89.7 7.9% 18.0%vs RHP 393 12.6% 11.1% 10.1% 26

6 Eugenio Suarez 45 D +425 HOT 117 0.173 87.9 6.9% 25.0%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 13

7 Tyler Stephenson 43 D +400 COOL 146 0.131 90.5 7.1% 15.8%vs RHP 384 6.8% 0.0% 7.1% 19

8 Tj Friedl 36 D — COOL 199 0.097 87.8 3.9% 9.1%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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