TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ NYY

Playable air · 1.08×

LAD @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 13 mph in 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

7:05p

+7 ↑

8:05p

+7 ↑

9:05p

+7 ↑

10:05p

+7 ↑

11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +7 FIT

Best of game Ben Rice conv 47 · vs Sasaki ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 41 · vs Cole → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Roki Sasaki RHP · LAD

leak 96

2.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +900 A ●●●●●

2 Paul Goldschmidt +900 C+ ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells — C ●●●●○

FADE Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 90

1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +950 B ●●●●●

2 Freddie Freeman — C ●●○○○

3 Andy Pages — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ HOT vs Sasaki Edge +900 0.321 · 92.1 · 13.5% 50.0% 44.8% F B O A 87

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Cole Edge +950 0.255 · 93.6 · 12.2% 44.4% 37.3% F B O B 73

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Sasaki +900 0.229 · 86.5 · 11.8% 16.7% 30.8% F B O C+ 68

· NYY Austin Wells vs Sasaki Edge — 0.105 · 89.2 · 9.0% 28.6% 18.5% F B O C 53

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Sasaki Edge — 0.181 · 91.1 · 11.4% 22.2% 23.6% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.194 · 90.5 · 9.6% 11.1% 16.2% F B O C 57

· NYY Jasson Dominguez vs Sasaki Edge — 0.198 · 88.4 · 7.6% 0.0% 26.9% F B O C 53

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Cole — 0.196 · 89.1 · 8.6% 11.1% 15.7% F B O C 56

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Sasaki Edge — 0.163 · 90.9 · 11.5% 0.0% 26.6% F B O C 56

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.219 · 89.1 · 10.0% 0.0% 22.1% F B O C 55

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Cole Edge +700 0.228 · 90.1 · 10.8% 0.0% 20.4% F B O C+ 61

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Cole +950 0.175 · 90.5 · 8.4% 0.0% 13.3% F B O C 51

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Sasaki Edge — 0.162 · 88.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 13.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 4 long shots

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Sasaki — 0.142 · 83.8 · 6.7% 0.0% 22.3% F B O D 47

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Cole — 0.165 · 90.0 · 9.4% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 48

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Cole Edge +950 0.127 · 89.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.135 · 89.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.0% ← leak BRK 32.3% OFF 14.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

21.8% 12.2% 13.3% 17.5% B 73 +950

Neutral · 5

Max Muncy L Edge

18.3% 13.7% 7.1% 14.4% C+ 61 +700

Freddie Freeman L Edge

10.5% 10.0% 10.2% 10.3% C 57 —

Andy Pages R

8.3% 9.0% 6.9% 8.4% C 56 —

Dalton Rushing L Edge

11.7% 18.4% 3.1% 11.5% C 55 —

Mookie Betts R

10.5% 3.8% 6.7% 8.3% C 51 +950

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Teoscar Hernandez R

10.8% 14.7% 9.1% 11.4% D 48 —

123

Tommy Edman S Edge

3.8% 7.1% 6.7% 5.5% D 45 —

132

Kyle Tucker L Edge

7.8% 3.9% 1.7% 5.7% D 44 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.0% usage) carries Cole's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.4% ← leak OFF 35.7% BRK 20.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.8% 12.8% 10.4% 15.4% A 87 +900

Neutral · 6

Paul Goldschmidt R

15.2% 10.7% 5.8% 11.9% C+ 68 +900

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.7% 6.1% 11.4% 10.8% C+ 62 —

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.3% 20.0% 5.6% 12.2% C 56 —

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.3% 9.1% 12.3% 6.3% C 54 —

Jasson Dominguez S Edge

3.1% 6.5% 11.1% 5.3% C 53 —

Austin Wells L Edge

9.2% 0.0% 6.9% 7.3% C 53 —

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

105

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 47 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.4% usage) carries Sasaki's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Freeman Pages Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Mcmahon Dominguez Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Sasaki fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Ben Rice +900 · 87

Shohei Ohtani +950 · 73

Austin Wells — · 53

Trent Grisham — · 62

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 13 mph in 85°F open

↑

13 mph · cross

78°F

7:05p · peak

↑

13 mph · cross

78°F

8:05p

↑

13 mph · cross

78°F

9:05p

↑

13 mph · cross

78°F

10:05p

↑

13 mph · cross

78°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 85°F, wind 13 mph NW (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 73 B +950 WARM 5 0.255 93.6 12.2% 24.5%vs RHP 405 20.9% 44.4% 37.3% 22

2 Max Muncy 61 C+ +700 COOL 22 0.228 90.1 10.8% 23.6%vs RHP 409 17.8% 0.0% 20.4% 18

3 Freddie Freeman 57 C — COOL 44 0.194 90.5 9.6% 17.7%vs RHP 398 14.1% 11.1% 16.2% 30

4 Andy Pages 56 C — COOL 49 0.196 89.1 8.6% 22.2%vs RHP 391 15.1% 11.1% 15.7% 21

5 Dalton Rushing 55 C — COOL 52 0.219 89.1 10.0% 36.0%vs RHP 396 6.7% 0.0% 22.1% 15

6 Mookie Betts 51 C +950 · 76 0.175 90.5 8.4% 18.0%vs RHP 385 11.1% 0.0% 13.3% 27

7 Teoscar Hernandez 48 D — · 94 0.165 90.0 9.4% 20.0%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 19

8 Tommy Edman 45 D — COOL 123 0.135 89.3 6.9% 0.0%vs RHP 428 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 19

9 Kyle Tucker 44 D +950 WARM 132 0.127 89.0 7.1% 10.5%vs RHP 399 5.6% 0.0% 9.9% 27

vs Roki Sasaki · RHP 2.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 87 A +900 HOT 1 0.321 92.1 13.5% 36.7%vs RHP 389 27.6% 50.0% 44.8% 28

2 Paul Goldschmidt 68 C+ +900 · 9 0.229 86.5 11.8% 25.0%vs RHP 391 18.5% 16.7% 30.8% 15

3 Trent Grisham 62 C+ — WARM 19 0.181 91.1 11.4% 16.0%vs RHP 389 10.1% 22.2% 23.6% 27

4 Ryan Mcmahon 56 C — WARM 46 0.163 90.9 11.5% 25.0%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 26.6% 10

5 Cody Bellinger 54 C — COOL 59 0.162 88.9 8.8% 10.6%vs RHP 379 10.2% 0.0% 13.1% 31

6 Jasson Dominguez 53 C — WARM 61 0.198 88.4 7.6% 35.7%vs RHP 371 0.0% 0.0% 26.9% 32

7 Austin Wells 53 C — WARM 63 0.105 89.2 9.0% 12.9%vs RHP 378 9.7% 28.6% 18.5% 18

8 Jose Caballero 47 D — WARM 105 0.142 83.8 6.7% 18.8%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 22.3% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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