TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.74×

SF @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 10:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 6 mph cross 58°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

7:10p

+1 ↑

8:10p

-2 ↑

9:10p

-6 ↑

10:10p

-7 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +2

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 26 · vs Miller ⟷ Dominic Canzone conv 26 · vs Roupp → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 54

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +330 D ●●●●○

2 Casey Schmitt +425 D ●●●●○

3 Bryce Eldridge +500 D ●●●○○

FADE Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 32

0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dominic Canzone +475 C ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +575 D ●●●●○

3 Cole Young +850 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: 15.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 28.6% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ COOL vs Roupp Edge +475 0.271 · 92.8 · 8.2% 28.6% 23.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· SF Rafael Devers vs Miller Edge +330 0.228 · 92.2 · 8.9% 30.0% 21.6% F B O D 49

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Miller +425 0.216 · 90.0 · 9.2% 30.0% 21.5% F B O D 48

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Roupp +575 0.176 · 91.3 · 6.0% 33.3% 16.6% F B O D 39

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Miller Edge +500 0.197 · 92.3 · 9.2% 20.0% 17.3% F B O D 44

· SEA Cole Young vs Roupp Edge +850 0.155 · 88.6 · 4.7% 22.2% 12.5% F B O D 33

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Miller +475 0.193 · 92.5 · 10.4% 10.0% 15.0% F B O D 43

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Miller +475 0.193 · 88.4 · 7.7% 10.0% 11.3% F B O D 39

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Miller Edge +850 0.132 · 85.3 · 3.6% 12.5% 6.6% F B O D 26

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Roupp Edge +330 0.142 · 88.2 · 7.0% 11.1% 6.6% F B O D 34

· SEA Luke Raley COOL vs Roupp Edge +500 0.221 · 90.6 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 42

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Roupp Edge +850 0.195 · 87.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 35

· SEA J.P. Crawford vs Roupp Edge +850 0.141 · — · 5.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 26

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Roupp Edge +700 0.103 · 87.6 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Miller Edge +950 0.133 · 87.1 · 4.0% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 25

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Miller Edge +950 0.128 · 87.0 · 2.0% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.5% ← leak OFF 24.4% BRK 23.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.8% 9.8% 8.6% 12.2% D 49 +330

Casey Schmitt R

8.9% 18.2% 17.9% 12.3% D 48 +425

116

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.4% 17.4% 6.7% 12.6% D 44 +500

128

Heliot Ramos R

14.9% 17.4% 16.1% 15.7% D 43 +475

156

Willy Adames R

7.7% 14.3% 9.2% 8.6% D 39 +475

214

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.1% 0.0% 2.5% 1.8% D 26 +850

218

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.4% 0.0% 2.1% 2.6% D 25 +950

224

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.5% D 20 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Miller's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.7% ← leak BRK 25.7% OFF 19.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L Edge

18.4% 18.2% 7.8% 15.5% C 50 +475

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

138

Luke Raley L Edge

19.4% 13.9% 7.4% 16.0% D 42 +500

155

Randy Arozarena R

8.5% 10.0% 4.9% 8.4% D 39 +575

184

Colt Emerson L Edge

6.2% 8.0% 5.9% 6.7% D 35 +850

189

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.5% 12.2% 11.4% 11.1% D 34 +330

192

Cole Young L Edge

5.8% 10.0% 0.0% 5.8% D 33 +850

213

J.P. Crawford L Edge

5.6% 8.2% 12.0% 6.9% D 26 +850

217

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.7% 7.6% 2.0% 4.9% D 25 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.7% usage) carries Roupp's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Schmitt Eldridge Canzone Arozarena Young

Legend

attack side — vs Miller fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Dominic Canzone +475 · 50

Rafael Devers +330 · 49

Casey Schmitt +425 · 48

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.82× Wind 6 mph cross 58°F retractable

↑

7 mph · out

72°F

7:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

8:10p

-2

↑

6 mph · slight_out

68°F

9:10p

-6

↑

4 mph · slight_out

65°F

10:10p

-7

↑

3 mph · cross

63°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.74× 58°F, wind 6 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 49 D +330 · 83 0.228 92.2 8.9% 26.7%vs RHP 404 17.1% 30.0% 21.6% 30

2 Casey Schmitt 48 D +425 WARM 90 0.216 90.0 9.2% 20.8%vs RHP 396 17.6% 30.0% 21.5% 33

3 Bryce Eldridge 44 D +500 WARM 116 0.197 92.3 9.2% 20.0%vs RHP 398 20.0% 20.0% 17.3% 23

4 Heliot Ramos 43 D +475 WARM 128 0.193 92.5 10.4% 18.8%vs RHP 404 11.9% 10.0% 15.0% 30

5 Willy Adames 39 D +475 COOL 156 0.193 88.4 7.7% 20.0%vs RHP 390 14.1% 10.0% 11.3% 24

6 Drew Gilbert 26 D +850 COOL 214 0.132 85.3 3.6% 16.0%vs RHP 398 4.0% 12.5% 6.6% 20

7 Jung Hoo Lee 25 D +950 COOL 218 0.133 87.1 4.0% 8.7%vs RHP 378 4.7% 0.0% 5.9% 31

8 Luis Arraez 20 D +950 COOL 224 0.128 87.0 2.0% 3.6%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 36

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 50 C +475 COOL 75 0.271 92.8 8.2% 30.4%vs RHP 400 17.8% 28.6% 23.2% 23

2 Luke Raley 42 D +500 COOL 138 0.221 90.6 8.5% 33.3%vs RHP 385 14.5% 0.0% 12.7% 19

3 Randy Arozarena 39 D +575 WARM 155 0.176 91.3 6.0% 24.4%vs RHP 393 11.8% 33.3% 16.6% 26

4 Colt Emerson 35 D +850 COOL 184 0.195 87.0 5.5% 33.3%vs RHP 369 13.8% 0.0% 11.2% 12

5 Cal Raleigh 34 D +330 WARM 189 0.142 88.2 7.0% 13.8%vs RHP 390 12.3% 11.1% 6.6% 20

6 Cole Young 33 D +850 WARM 192 0.155 88.6 4.7% 16.4%vs RHP 388 10.9% 22.2% 12.5% 23

7 J.P. Crawford 26 D +850 · 213 0.141 — 5.5% 26.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 22

8 Josh Naylor 25 D +700 · 217 0.103 87.6 4.7% 13.2%vs RHP 390 7.9% 0.0% 6.0% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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